Ishiba Administration Abruptly Slows Down
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
March 17, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba admitted to a reporter late in the night of March 13 that he had distributed gift certificates to new lawmakers of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The Political Funds Control Act prohibits anyone from donating money or its equivalent to a politician that relates to political activity. Although Ishiba insisted that the gifts were not related to “political activity,” both opposition party and leading coalition members accused Ishiba of recklessness in his handling of political funds. The Ishiba administration abruptly went into crisis mode.
According to news reports, Ishiba met on the evening of March 3 with 15 LDP lawmakers in the House of Representatives who had been elected for the first time last October. In advance of the meeting, Ishiba’s staff visited each of them and handed out gift certificates from major department stores. Each certificate was for 100,000 yen. (US$670). The staff maintained that the gift certificates were souvenirs from the evening’s meeting.
Article 21-2 of Political Funds Control Act states that “[n]o person shall financially contribute to political activities of a candidate.” Ishiba said that the gift card distribution was not illegal since it had come out of his pocket to thank the representatives and their families. Ishiba also said that he had not violated the Public Offices Election Act, which prohibits a politician from donating to someone in his or her electoral district, because none of the freshmen at the meeting is in Ishiba’s district.
The opposition leaders immediately seized on Ishiba’s apparent lapse in judgment. The chair of the Japan Communist Party, Tomoko Tamura, argued that every activity of a politician is a political activity. The head of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yohishiko Noda, told reporters that the law prohibits any donations to an individual politician. The leaders of the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People called on Ishiba to consider stepping down.
The gift card distribution also presents moral issues that strike a deeper chord with the public than the legal arguments. At a time when the LDP faces harsh criticism of its management of political funds, Ishiba’s distribution of 100,000 yen gift certificates as “souvenirs” invited renewed skepticism of voters regarding expenditures by LDP lawmakers. The gift certificate’s cost was startling and considered by the average voter as too extravagant for souvenir.
Polls by news organizations in mid-March showed a steep decline in Ishiba’s approval rating. The poll of Asahi Shimbun showed him 14 points down from the previous month to 26 percent. In the poll of Mainichi Shimbun, Ishiba was 7 points down to 23 percent, and in the Yomiuri Ishiba dropped 8 points to 31 percent. Over 70 percent of the respondents in each poll viewed Ishiba’s gift certificates as a problem. The low approval ratings will affect the Upper House election this summer.
“I couldn’t believe what I’d heard. He should have refrained from doing what would not be understood by the people,” said the chief representative of Komeito, Tetsuo Saito. The right-wing conservatives in the LDP have been revitalized. Shoji Nishida, an LDP Upper House member and a close ally of the late Shinzo Abe demanded Ishiba’s resignation and an immediate LDP presidential election.
However, Ishiba is not under great public pressure to resign. Asahi’s poll showed that 60 percent of the respondents did not think that Ishiba should step down, almost twice the 32 percent who believed he should. The biggest reason that respondents still support Ishiba is that they do not see any alternatives. Even if the LDP were to replace Ishiba, the party does not have any other possible leader in the next election.
As some lawmakers revealed, it is not unusual for a prime minister from the LDP to distribute gift certificate to participants at a casual meeting. Some LDP lawmakers who received such souvenirs in the past may face a backlash if they start to blame Ishiba. Moreover, there is no effective faction in the LDP, which ordinarily would be the driving force to replace Ishiba because most of the factions were dissolved in the wake of the slush fund scandal.
It is true that for the opposition parties an unpopular Ishiba is easier foe to deal with than a new leader. The parties can get their policies on the budget through the talks with the LDP and Komeito. Yet, even with a majority in the Lower House, the opposition parties do not have a united framework for an alternative administration to supplant the current one. There is not yet a situation in which Ishiba can be immediately replaced.
It is sure, anyway, that Ishiba faces further difficulty in managing his political fortunes. Ishiba could be forced into further compromises on the issue of political donations from companies and organizations. Some opposition leaders want Ishiba to testify before the Diet’s political ethics council. Any more errors are likely to be fatal for the Ishiba administration.
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