Korea's Most Important Province

CONFERENCE

Gyeonggi Province

The Engine that Leads the U.S.–Korea Partnership

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

9:00am to 4:30pm (EDT)

Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill

400 New Jersey Avenue NW

Washington, DC 20001

Sponsored by

Center for the National Interest ● Gyeonggi Research Institute

Korean Association for Policy Studies ● Reischauer Center ,Johns Hopkins SAIS

Highlighting the Gyeonggi Province's leadership in the multi-dimensional partnership between the U.S. and South Korea. The Province is the country's hub for advanced technology R&D and manufacturing. U.S. Army Garrison Camp Humphreys, the largest U.S. military installation outside the continental United States is also located in the Province.

AGENDA

Four sessions covering Renewable energy ● Tariff policy ●

Peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula ● Advanced technology and biotechnology

REGISTER HERE

SPEAKERS INCLUDE

• Governor Dong Yeon Kim of Gyeonggi Province, former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister

• Members of the Korea Caucus on Capitol Hill

• Paul Saunders, President, Center for the National Interest

• Seong Cheon Kang, President, Gyeonggi Research Institute

• Hyung Jun Park, President, Korean Association for Policy Studies

• Kent Calder, Director, Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS

• Rob Atkinson, President of Information, Technology and Innovation Foundation 

• Taek Goo Kang, Senior Research Fellow, Korea Environment Institute

• Christian Whiton, Senior Fellow, Center for the National Interest

• Byung Won Woo, Professor of International Relations, Yonsei University

• Jill Homan, Deputy Director of Trade & Economy Policy, America First Policy Institute

• Yun Young Jo, Professor of Political Science, Chung Ang University

• Sydney Seiler, Senior Adviser, the Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Sang Kyu Kim, Senior Fellow, Gyeonggi Research Institute 

• Robert Gallucci, Distinguished Professor in Practice of Diplomacy at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service

• Seok Hwan Lee, Professor of Public Administration, Kookmin University

• Mark Esser, President of Paul and Diane Manning Institute of Biotechnology, the University of Virginia and former Vice President of AstraZeneca

• Joseph Kim, President of Agenta and former CEO and President of Inovio

Uncertainty in Japanese Politics

Komeito Dissolves the Leading Coalition

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
October 13, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

NOTE: If you look forward to these essays, please subscribe to Asia Policy Point's weekly Asia Policy Calendar. Subscription, only $100/year, includes additional reports on Japanese politics and history.

Asia Policy Events, Monday October 13, 2025

COLUMBUS DAY HOLIDAY IN U.S.

IMPACT OF THE TRUMP TARIFFS ON CAMBODIA, LAOS AND VIETNAM. 10/13, 9:00-10:30am (SGT), 10/12, 9:00-10:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. Speakers: Dr. Milan Thomas, Country Economist, Cambodia Resident Mission, ADB; Soulinthone Leuangkhamsing, Principal Economics Officer, Lao PDR Resident Mission, ADB; Prof. Dao Ngoc Tien, Vice President, Vietnam’s Foreign Trade University (FTU).

THE NINE-FINGERED PARTY: THE STRANGE HISTORY OF THE YAKUZA IN JAPANESE POLITICS. 10/13, 5:15-7:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Center for East Asian Studies, Univ. of Pennsylvania. Speaker: Jake Adelstein, Investigative Journalist, Author, The Devil Takes Bitcoin: Cryptocurrency Crimes and the Japanese Connection (Releases Oct 14). PURCHASE BOOK. ZOOM LINK UPON REGISTRATION.

Takaichi Becomes the First Female LDP President

Can she become prime minister?

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.
October 6, 2025

Former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi won the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4, making her the first female president in the party’s history. As the race turned to be a match between pro- and anti-Ishiba blocs, Takaichi achieved a sweeping victory, assembling conservative votes within the LDP – largely among general party members. The point now is whether she can mitigate division in the party and restore the LDP’s historical majority in both Houses of the Diet.

In the election, Takaichi showed her strength among rank-and-file voters of the party. The first-round score of each candidate was 183 (64 from lawmakers and 119 general party members) for Takaichi, 164 (80 and 84) for Minister of Environment Shinjiro Koizumi, 134 (72 and 62) for Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 59 (44 and 15) for former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, and 49 (34 and 15) for former LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi.

Because no candidate achieved a simple majority, the election went to a run-off between Takaichi and Koizumi. Takaichi received 185 votes (149 from lawmakers and 36 from party branches), and Koizumi 156 (145 and 11). Before the election Takaichi seemed popular among the rank-and-file and Koizumi had strength among lawmakers. The election itself showed that Takaichi dominated both groups.

One reason for Takaichi’s victory was a fundamental concern of rank-and-file members who realized that LDP support had eroded everywhere in Japan with the advance of conservative parties such as Sanseito. These parties significantly increased their seats in July’s Upper House election. Trying to regain conservative votes that had left the LDP, the general members hoped to restore the conservative cause of the party by voting for the right-wing Takaichi.

Another critical element in Takaichi’s favor was a maneuver by a heavyweight in the party, former prime minister Taro Aso. He leads only one faction in the LDP, but it was enough. He instructed his allies to vote in the run-off for the candidate who had received the largest number of votes from general party members in the first round. The faction members knew this meant voting for Takaichi because it had become obvious before the election that she was leading Koizumi among general members.

The victory of Takaichi, in short, was based on separate motivations of the rank and file and the Aso faction members in the Diet. The right-leaning sentiment of LDP general members was to defend the party from surges of new conservative movements throughout Japan. Lawmakers represented by Aso hoped to maintain the traditional political arrangement in which factions, once rejected by public voters, again dominate power in the party.

Takaichi was elected to the House of Representatives for the first time as an independent in 1993. She joined the LDP in 1996, after a short affiliation with the later-dissolved New Frontier Party (Shinshin-tou). She became a member of the Seiwakai Policy Study Group, a faction led by Yoshiro Mori, Jun-ichiro Koizumi and eventually by Shinzo Abe. Takaichi eventually became chair of the LDP Policy Research Council, Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, and Minister on Economic Security.

Known as a conservative lawmaker close to Abe, Takaichi repeatedly visited the Yasukuni Shrine on its festival days and the August 15 Memorial Ceremony for the War Dead. She has argued forcefully for amendment of Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan. Takaichi also advocates mobilization of financial policies to inject substantial amounts of government money into the market, i.e., deficit spending. Such spending reflects the economic policies of the Abe administration known as Abenomics. She has also spoken favorably of the need to regulate foreigners in Japan, a position that attracts the xenophobic sentiment of conservative voters.

Takaichi is better known as a promotor of a hawkish agenda than as an advocate for women’s rights – notwithstanding that she is likely to become the first woman prime minister. She opposes separate surnames and instead calls for expanded use of nicknames. She wholeheartedly supports primogeniture, a doctrine under which a male Emperor is succeeded by a male heir in the male line belonging to the imperial lineage. This doctrine rules out the possibility of female emperor.

“I will make this party with the participation of everyone, bringing all generations together,” said Takaichi in her press conference right after the LDP presidential election. Her first assignment as the LDP president is to reunite the party which was divided between members who favored Ishiba and those who opposed him. However, it is likely that figures from anti-Ishiba groups will populate her administration.

The fact that Aso’s endorsement ensured Takaichi’s election means that she will be beholden to him. Press reports indicate that Takaichi is considering picking Shun-ichi Suzuki, a former Minister of Finance, a ranking member of the Aso faction and his brother-in-law, as Secretary General of the LDP. The appointment is probably a show of gratitude to Aso.

To bolster the right wing of her administration, Takaichi reportedly plans to pick Takayuki Kobayashi, one of the candidates in the presidential election, as chair of the LDP Policy Research Council. She will likely also appoint Haruko Arimura for the chairwoman of General Council and Keiji Furuya for the head of Election Committee, both well-known ultra conservative. Her selections for LDP board members are overwhelmingly hawkish.

It is also said that she plans to appoint Minoru Kihara, a former member of the Motegi Faction, as Chief Cabinet Secretary of her Cabinet. Takaichi is said to be considering inclusion of Motegi, Koizumi, and Hayashi, three of her contenders in the presidential election into her cabinet.

The appointments may also represent the restoration of factions that were disbanded in the aftermath of the scandal involving the factions’ illegal management of political funds. She is appointing Koichi Hagiuda, one of the recipients of secret funds from former Abe faction, to LDP Executive Acting Secretary General. Although this slush fund scandal helped cause the LDP’s serious defeats in the national elections in 2024 and 2025, Takaichi has declared that she would distribute important posts in her administration to the lawmakers who had been involved in the scandal. She scarcely mentioned reform of the LDP in her presidential campaign.

Takaichi is likely to be elected the first female prime minister to succeed Shigeru Ishiba in the extraordinary session of the Diet in mid-October. The leading coalition of the LDP and Komeito does not have a majority in either House, meaning that Takaichi will have to attract votes from outside these two parties. However, the opposition parties are too divided to settle on a candidate for prime minister from within their own ranks. Even so, Takaichi will have to find a way to work with the opposition if the Takaichi Cabinet is to implement her policies.

Although Takaichi thinks that her administration should be based on the LDP’s traditional partnership with Komeito, this peace-focused party opposes many of Takaichi’s hawkish views. Its Chief Representative, Tetsuo Saito, has indicated that Takaichi must modify four policies to maintain the leading coalition: visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, given their adverse effect on diplomacy; fair treatment of foreigners in Japan; stricter regulation of campaign contributions by companies and organizations; and expansion of the LDP-Komeito coalition.

Takaichi’s victory was a surprise to the opposition parties, and there appear to be differing results. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) has focused on implementation of their economic policy, and the Takaichi administration expects to build a close relationship with them. It was reported that the DPP would be the first target for Takaichi to formulate a new coalition

Other parties may be less successful. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) has not been able to cooperate with Komeito in single-seat districts in Osaka. Given its hope to amend security legislation in 2015, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is unlikely to be a coalition partner of the LDP. The CDPJ nevertheless favors a refundable tax credit that is a priority for Takaichi.

In diplomacy, Takaichi’s first test is likely to be U.S. President Donald Trump. He is expected to make a state visit to Tokyo later this October (reportedly 27-29). Frustrated with Trump’s imposition of a 15 percent tariff on Japanese products, Takaichi previously has suggested renegotiating the tariff agreement. Observers on both sides of the Pacific will watch with great interest whether Takaichi can build a personal relationship with Trump that benefits Japan.

Improving, or at least maintaining, relations with neighboring countries are another vital task for Takaichi. Her continuing visits to the Yasukuni Shrine have caused China to accuse Japan of indifference to historical issues. Her political mentor, Abe, undermined Japan’s relationship with the Republic of Korea by encouraging a revisionist history of the former colony. Takaichi’s like-minded historical views may similarly affect Japan’s relationship with Korea, which had improved in the Ishiba administration.

Whether Takaichi can revive the LDP while managing diplomacy toward both Japan’s neighbors and the U.S. is her challenge.

The Demise of the LDP

   "Takaichi's victory is going to hasten the decline and the eventual collapse of the LDP

...It's not if, but just when. It could happen fairly soon."

PRESS CONFERENCE

Japan's Next Prime Minister

Gerald L. Curtis

Burgess Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Columbia University

Monday, October 6, 2025

Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan

Asia Policy Events, Monday October 6, 2025

PRESS CONFERENCE: JAPAN'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER. 10/6, 11:00am-Noon (JST), 10/5 10:00pm (EDT). HYBRID. Sponsor: Foreign Correspondents Club Japan. Speaker: Gerald L. Curtis, Burgess Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Columbia University.

NAVIGATING TROUBLED WATERS: INSIGHTS AND PROSPECTS FROM THE MANILA DIALOGUES. 10/6, 7:00pm (JST), 6:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies. Speaker: Dr. Bich Tran, Research Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

AFTER ISHIBA: WHAT’S NEXT FOR JAPANESE POLITICS? 10/6, 8:00-8:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Victor Cha, President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, Korea Chair; Kristi Govella, Senior Adviser, Japan Chair; Nicholas Szechenyi, Vice President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, Senior Fellow, Japan Chair.

BETWEEN PEACE AND WAR: EXPLORING CHINA’S GRAY ZONE STRATEGY TOWARD TAIWAN. 10/6, 9:00-10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Stimson. Speakers: Kelly A. Grieco, Senior Fellow, Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center; James Siebens, Fellow, Strategic Foresight Hub, Stimson Center; Pam Kennedy, Deputy Director, China Program, Stimson Center (Moderator). 

RESPONDING TO TRUMP’S NEW FOREIGN POLICY PARADIGM. 10/6, 9:00-11:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Victor Cha, President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, Korea Chair, CSIS; Max Bergmann, Director,  Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies, CSIS; Oge Onubogu, Director/Senior Fellow, Africa Program, CSIS; Mona Yacoubian, Director/Senior Adviser, Middle East Program, CSIS; Charles Edel, Senior Adviser, Australia Chair, CSIS; Kristi Govella, Senior Adviser, Japan Chair, CSIS. 

‘‘SENSING THE CLIMATE”: HOW DO INTERNATIONAL POLICY MAKERS ‘SENSE’ NATURE? 10/6, Noon-1:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Johns Hopkins University SAIS. Speakers: Joanne Yao, Reader in International Relations, Queen Mary, University of London and Ludovica Chiussi Curzi; Senior Assistant Professor in Public International Law, University of Bologna.

BIG DEAL, SMALL DEAL, OR NO DEAL? POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF A TRUMP-XI SUMMIT. 10/6, 12:30-1:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Thomas J. Christensen, Pritzker Chair, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department; Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics; Henrietta Levin, Senior Fellow, Freeman Chair in China Studies; Bonny Lin, Senior Adviser, Director, China Power Project; Ilaria Mazzocco, Deputy Director/Senior Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics.

A STRATEGY FOR BIOSECURITY VICTORY. 10/6, 12:30-2:00pm (PDT), 3:30-5:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hoover Institution. Speakers: Drew Endy, Science Fellow and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Rear Admiral Kenneth Bernard, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution; Emily Clise Tully, Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution.

COOPERATION AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF INDO-PACIFIC TUNA FISHERIES. 10/6, 2:30-5:00pm (JST), 1:30-4:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Speakers: Transform Aqorau, Vice-Chancellor, Solomon Islands National University; Hussain Sinan, Director, General Fisheries and Ocean Resources Management, Maldives Ministry of Fisheries and Ocean Resources; Quentin Hanich, Fisheries Governance Program Leader, Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS). 

EXPLORING THE ART OF MANGA. 10/6, 5:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Japanese Art Society of America (JASA). Speaker: author Nicole Coolidge Rousmaniere, Director, Sainsbury Institute for the Study of Japanese Arts and Cultures, Professor of Japanese Art and Culture, University of East Anglia, U.K. PURCHASE BOOK

REPRESENTING TAIWAN IN DC: HOW TAIWANESE AMERICANS CAN BRIDGE CULTURE AND POLICY. 10/6, 5:30-7:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Global Taiwan Institute. Speakers: Tim Chng, Principal Software Developer, Yahoo Inc.; Adam Peir, Data Analyst, Former Board Member/President, Taiwanese American Professionals, Director of Civic Engagement, Taiwanese American Citizens League; David Tang, Principal, Washington DC Taiwanese School.

REVISITING THE JONES ACT: FROM PROTECTIONISM TO PARTNERSHIP. 10/6, 6:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Korea Society. Speaker: Colin Grabow, Associate Director, Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, Cato Institute.

Japan's Succession Battle Pits Moderates Against the Right

—and Korea Is Watching

Originally Published on The Peninsula, September 26, 2025

By Daniel Sneider, non-resident Distinguished Fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America, a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford University, and APP member.

As he heads out the revolving door of Japanese politics, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has two important stops on his agenda. The first will be in Busan, South Korea, for a meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung next week. The two leaders have vowed to solidify the momentum in closer relations and to make these meetings a regular feature of those ties.

Three days later, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will pick a new party leader, with the winner expected to become Japan’s prime minister. Immediately after that hurdle has been cleared, Ishiba is reportedly planning to deliver a long-expected major address, likely in Tokyo, on his version of the lessons of World War II and his vow not to repeat “the devastation of war.”

The outgoing Japanese leader represents the more liberal wing of the LDP and had hoped to cement ties with neighboring Korea and ease tensions with China while seeking more space to pursue an independent foreign policy. But his government was far too weak to take any bold steps. A longtime foe of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Ishiba may now be worried about the candidates for succession from the right, led by former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Sanae Takaichi.

A rare female figure in Japanese politics, Takaichi has embraced the anti-immigrant and hyper-patriotic rhetoric of the small but surprisingly successful Sanseito, which won fourteen seats in the last election for the upper house of the National Diet on a “Japan First” platform that consciously echoed the ideology and agenda of Donald Trump’s MAGA movement.

The prospect of a victory by Takaichi, who is considered a strong contender along with the more moderate Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of a former prime minister, also rattles close observers of Japan in Korea.

“Takaichi is a disaster for Korea,” said a former Korean ambassador to Japan, who spoke to this writer on background. “We are closely watching the succession process in Japanese politics,” added former Ambassador to Japan Shin Kak-soo. “It is true that we have concerns over the election of a hawkish PM who might derail the restoration process of Korea-Japan relations.”

Ambassador Shin, who remains active in promoting Korea-Japan ties, gives some credit to President Lee for continuing to build on the previous administration’s outreach. “Now the ball is in Japan’s court,” the former diplomat said. Takaichi, if elected, “would change her revisionist attitude toward the past history as President Lee Jae Myung did after his election,” he forecast.

The Battle within the LDP
The vote within the LDP comes little more than a year after Ishiba won an improbable victory in a similar contest following the resignation of then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. He inherited a party and a government that was widely discredited due to fundraising scandals and rising cost of living. Along with poor LDP election performance across Japan and other domestic issues, Ishiba faced the challenge of the Trump administration and harsh tariffs imposed on Japan.

Ishiba tried to hang onto power, including accepting a disadvantageous deal with the United States on tariffs and investment. But those defeats and signs of growing discontent ultimately forced his resignation.

The lineup of contenders this time is similar to the vote a year ago, though with only five candidates. The initial vote takes place among almost a million party members, given the equivalent of 295 votes, and 295 members of the parliament. If no one has a majority, there is a runoff with the legislative members and 47 votes from prefectural chapters. In that second round, the still-powerful party leaders—all of them former prime ministers—would have more sway.

Among the candidates, Takaichi is joined on the right by former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi. On the left, there is the current Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. In the center are two well-known figures—former Minister for Foreign Affairs Toshimitsu Motegi and Agriculture Minister Koizumi, the latter of whom leads in many polls. Whomever becomes party leader must still form a de facto coalition government in order to have a working majority—even informally—which requires forming a pact with the Komeito and at least one of the other opposition parties.

In the initial debates among the candidates, foreign policy has been at best a secondary issue. There has been disproportionately large attention paid to alleged problems with foreign workers and tourists, as well as immigration. But the main focus areas are curbing inflation, restoring the social security system, reducing taxes, and political reform.

The only foreign policy issue to get much attention has been the Trump administration’s tariffs. To the extent that foreign policy is a concern, the consensus among observers in Seoul and Tokyo is that the best choices are the two former foreign ministers, Hayashi and Motegi, both of whom have good reputations on the foreign policy front.

“The best choice for Japan’s diplomacy is undoubtedly Hayashi, who has steadily acted as a moderate as foreign minister,” says a veteran Japanese foreign policy reporter at a major daily newspaper. “He has a good record of dialogue with Beijing as well as with Washington.” In Seoul, “Hayashi and Motegi are favorable choices for us,” says Ambassador Shin. Hayashi is considered a long shot, but he could emerge if there is a stalemate between Takaichi and Koizumi, who faltered the last time around when he was considered an early favorite.

Conservative front-runner Takaichi has tried to soften her image but remains anathema to many inside and outside the party as too extreme and likely to scare away many voters. Possible coalition partners like the Komeito have already made clear that they will not join a government headed by her.

Who is Koizumi?
Koizumi, at age forty-four, is increasingly the odds-on favorite to become Japan’s next prime minister. The last time he ran, a year ago, he displayed the inexperience and lack of confidence that seemed to confirm the view that he is too young for the job. But this time around, he looks more polished and presents himself as the person who can both unify the LDP and broaden its appeal again, especially to younger voters. He is also considered more acceptable to the opposition parties that would have to cooperate to make him prime minister and pass vital legislation.

But there remain considerable questions about his foreign policy views, particularly his approach toward Korea and China. He has been a regular visitor to the Yasukuni Shrine, though only as a politician and cabinet minister, following in the footsteps of his father. He has avoided the question of whether he would visit as prime minister.

“Koizumi has two faces, conservative and realistic,” says the former Korean ambassador to Japan, who spoke on background. “Still, I am not that much worried about his position regarding Korea-Japan relations.” The former envoy points out that Koizumi’s parliamentary district in the Kanagawa area is home to a large population of Korean-Japanese residents.

Koizumi notably embraced the importance of Korea-Japan relations in a press conference announcing his candidacy, apparently eager to dispel the idea that he would turn in a more right-wing direction.

“South Korea is an important neighboring country with which we must cooperate as a partner in addressing various global challenges. The importance of South Korea-Japan relations and trilateral cooperation with the U.S. is growing,” Koizumi recently declared. He pledged continuity with the path taken by the previous two Japanese administrations.

Regardless of who wins the LDP leadership, the path ahead in Japan is likely to be fraught with ongoing political instability until the party wins a new election and regains its majority.

“For the time being, Japanese politics is in chaos and flux, limiting Japan’s international role,” concludes Ambassador Shin. “That is quite detrimental to our interests too.”

Asia Policy Events, Monday September 29, 2025

UNDERSTANDING THE THAILAND-CAMBODIA CONFLICT: HOW BORDER DISPUTES DRIVE DOMESTIC POLITICAL CRISES AND VICE VERSA. 9/29, 10:00-11:30am (SGT), 9/28, 10:00-11:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS). Speakers: Dr. Puangthong R. Pawakapan, Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University; Supalak Ganjanakhundee, Advisor, Military Affairs Committee, Thailand’s House of Representatives. 

WORLD WAR II AT 80: THE UNENDING QUEST FOR REDRESS. 9/29, 6:30pm (JST), 5:30am (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies. Speaker: Timothy Webster, Lawyer, Professor, Translator. 5

BOOK TALK: THE NATIONAL INTEREST: POLITICS AFTER GLOBALIZATION. 9/29, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy Institute. Speakers: author Philip Cunliffe, Associate Professor of International Relations, Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London; Dr. Zachary Paikin, Deputy Director, Better Order Project, Research Fellow, Grand Strategy Program, Quincy Institute.  PURCHASE BOOK

WHAT ROBERT F. KENNEDY’S LIBERAL PATRIOTISM COULD TEACH POLITICAL LEADERS TODAY. 9/29, 11:00am-12:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Progressive Policy Institute (PPI). Speakers: Robert Doar, President, AEI; Richard D. Kahlenberg, Director, American Identity Project, PPI; Will Marshall, President, PPI; Ritchie Torres, US House of Representatives (D-NY).

BREAKING TRADITION: PRESIDENT TRUMP’S APPROACH TO POLICY DECISIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION. 9/29, 12:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Japan Society. Speaker: Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce; Former Board Chair, Japan Society. Members only.

SHIFTING DYNAMICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: PYONGYANG'S OBSERVATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES. 9/29, 2:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: National Committee on North Korea. Speakers: Yaakov Katz, Israeli-American author and journalist, co-founder of MEAD; Siegfried Hecker, former director, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Professor Emeritus, Stanford University.

INTERNATIONAL LAW FOR WHOM? 9/29, 3:00-4:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: U.S.–Asia Law Institute. Speaker: Jean-Marc Coicaud, Distinguished Professor of Law and Global Affairs, Rutgers University, author The Law and Politics of International Legitimacy. PURCHASE BOOK

THE IDEAS THAT BUILT AMERICA—AND WHERE THEY STAND TODAY. 9/29, 5:00-6:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: R Street Institute. Speakers: Sabrina Schaeffer, Vice President, R Street Institute; Lindsay M. Chervinsky, PhD, Presidential Historian/Executive Director, George Washington Presidential Library at Mount Vernon. 

BEYOND TARIFFS: WHAT NEXT FOR THE GLOBAL TRADE REALIGNMENT? 9/29, 5:00-7:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Association of Women in International Trade (WIIT); George Washington University (GWU). Speakers: Christine McDaniel, Senior Economist, Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practice, World Bank Group; Daniel Ciarcia, Account Manager/Carbon Consultant, EcoEngineers; Bennett Caplan, President, Abridge; Jenny A. Kai, Senior Manager, Government and Public Affairs, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA). 

The LDP Presidential Campaign Begins

The LDP Enters the Policy Discussion Phase of its Presidential Election

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 22, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
 
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) kicked off its presidential election campaign on September 22. Five lawmakers officially submitted their candidacies to the party on the 22nd with only a 15 minute window to file. The deadline for entries has now passed. All five were losers in the last election a year ago.
 
Having lost the majority in both Houses of the Diet under the leadership of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the presidential election should be about how to regain power through reforming the party. Yet the candidates are not talking much about reform.  They are instead focusing on their economic policies for households or maneuvers to attract support from the opposition parties.
 
One of the biggest reasons for the defeats in the 2024 Lower House election and the 2025 Upper House election was the LDP’s kickback fund scandal. It revealed LDP’s mismanagement of political funds without transparency. The opposition parties called for stricter regulation of donations from companies and organizations, which have been the financial lifeline for the LDP.  After receiving protests from LDP lawmakers, Ishiba did not reach a consensus with the opposition on the issue. Ishiba announced his resignation as the LDP president on September 7.
 
The LDP set the presidential election for October 4 and opened the starting gate for campaigns on September 22. Five people have entered the race. They are: former Minister on Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, former LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former Minister on Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi. Each has his or her own platform.
 
Kobayashi is running on three key issues. First, he supports a temporary income tax cut with a fixed rate. The tax cut would provide greater benefits to high-income taxpayers than to low-income ones. Kobayashi would offset the cut with surplus tax revenue in the current year. Second, reflecting his hawkish perspective, Kobayashi supports an increase in the defense budget to more than 2 percent of GDP. Finally, he advocates greater regulation of foreign intervention in communications in Japan.
 
Announcing his candidacy immediately after Ishiba’s announcement, Motegi promises that he will pursue economic growth policies that will increase the annual income of each worker by 10 percent within three years. While other candidates prioritize policy talks with the opposition parties, Motegi aims to assemble a coalition to secure a majority in the Diet.
 
Hayashi would continue the policies of the Ishiba administration in the hope of attracting the votes of Ishiba and his allies. Setting a target of one percent growth in real wages each year, Hayashi would establish a Japanese version of “universal credit,” a social security payment which the United Kingdom has introduced. In addition, to reform the party, he would create a digital platform for real-time communications with the public. He would also amend the party constitution.
 
In her campaign speech at the LDP headquarters, Takaichi emphasized her conservative agenda. This includes greater regulation of foreigners in Japan, limiting the line of succession to the imperial throne to male offspring in the male line, and amendments to Japan’s Constitution. Unusually, however, she would pursue economic policies that include positions held by the opposition parties. These include a refundable tax credit system, a gasoline tax cut, and an increase in the income threshold for tax liability.
 
Finally, Koizumi has actually distanced himself from his platform a year ago. Party “reform” is no longer at the center of his campaign. He has also withdrawn his support for a different surname system and the deregulation of worker dismissals. Instead, Koizumi promises a one-million-yen increase in the annual average wage by FY2030 and domestic investment up to 135 trillion yen. These economic policies were already part of the Ishiba administration’s agenda.
 
Remarkably, none of the five candidates has offered a plan that would settle the dispute over regulation of (or prohibitions on) donations from companies and organizations. The opposition parties have proposed new regulations on and even the abolition of this kind of fundraising. If the LDP insists on this traditional form of fundraising, the party will retain its negative image as an old-line party.
 
In the polls by news organizations, Takaichi has the greatest popularity among general voters. However, among LDP supporters, Koizumi has the greatest support, and only LDP members will vote in the election. There is no certainty that the party election results will be consistent with the popularity of the candidates among the public voters.
 
Five is the largest number of candidates in the history of LDP presidential elections except for the 2024 election, which had nine. Since a candidate can win only with a majority vote, it is almost certain that the election will go to a run-off. Negotiations over policies among the candidates may determine the winner; there is no way to predict which of the five will emerge victoriously.

LDP Rematch

Consolation Match for the Five LDP Presidency Candidates

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 15, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

A week after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, the campaign for the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) began. It has turned into a race with five entrants – all of whom lost in the last election a year ago. The race is likely to be about which candidate can “change” the ailing party’s culture through political funding reform and can manage Diet affairs without a majority in either chamber.
 
Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, resigned last September, in the face of public criticism of the kickback fund scandal by some factions in the LDP. Ishiba succeeded Kishida in the expectation that he would reform a party that relied heavily on donations from companies and business organizations. Ishiba was caught in the middle of a party struggle over whether to ban those donations.
 
Ishiba had promised last December that he would have a legislative solution to reform political donations by the end of March, but he did not deliver. Instead, he continued to discuss reforms with the opposition parties, some of which demanded the total abolition of donations from companies and organizations.
 
In the Lower House election last October, the LDP lost its majority. Responsibility for the loss fell largely on Kishida since the election took place shortly after Ishiba assumed the PM position. Ishiba could not, however, avoid responsibility when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House election last July. “I could not meet the expectation for change,” Ishiba said in his resignation press conference.
 

The LDP called a presidential election on October 4. Candidates must file entry forms on September 22, when the party will officially open the election. Five candidates are reportedly willing to run for the president.
 
Former Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi was the first to step forward. In his press conference to announce his candidacy, Motegi emphasized his economic policy that would increase take-home pay for many Japanese. This policy resonates with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). Motegi also mentioned the possibility of building a leading coalition with the DPP or the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) that would hold a majority in the Diet.
 
Motegi is running with the support of former colleagues in his now defunct faction, many of whom were leading the anti-Ishiba movement in the LDP after the Upper House election. He also met one-on-one with former prime minister Taro Aso, who openly opposed Ishiba. Polls have shown, however, that many Japanese did not believe that Ishiba should have resigned. This polling data may force Motegi to explain his differences with Ishiba. Motegi will have to develop a plan for party reform.
 
Other candidates try to catch up Motegi. Former Minister on Economic Security, Takayuki Kobayashi, announced his candidacy on September 16. As a candidate in the age of 50, representing young generation, Kobayashi upheld policies for young generation, including income tax cut. His team is headed by former Minister of Defense, Yasukazu Hamada, who is elected from Chiba, the same prefecture as Kobayashi.
 
Two ministers in Ishiba Cabinet showed apparent interest in the election on the same day. Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, revealed that he had told his candidacy to his supporters in his hometown, Yokosuka. Although official announcement will be later this week, it is surprising that Minister of Finance, Katsunobu Kato, will lead Koizumi’s team, instead of running for the president.
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, also told his intention to run for the president in his regular press conference. As a core member of Ishiba Cabinet, Hayashi insisted on succeeding policies of Ishiba administration. Supporters for Hayashi consist of lawmakers with former Kishiba faction, supposedly with backing of Kishida himself. He is expected to have another press conference to publicize his policies.
 
Former Minister on Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, is expected to officially announce her bid for the president later this week. She mainly receives supports from the conservative lawmakers who were frustrated with Ishiba administration. Reiterating a phrase of “rebuild backbone of the party,” Takaichi hopes to restore the cause of conservatives, which gained momentum in the time of former prime minister Shinzo Abe.
 
Takaichi and Koizumi currently dominate. In the election last November, Takaichi finished second and Koizumi third. Both enjoyed broad public support in and did not rely on a specific faction. Takaichi has a firm base of support among conservatives. Koizumi has the support of former premier Yoshihide Suga and younger party members.
 
But neither one is likely to win in the first round. To win in the first round, a candidate must garner at least 296 votes: a majority of all 590 votes: 295 for lawmakers and 295 for local party members. In any subsequent run-off election local party members have only 47 votes. The successful candidate must win at least 171 votes out of 342.
 
If the run-off pits Takaichi against Koizumi, conservative votes, including those who have supported Kobayashi, will go for Takaichi. Koizumi does not have a similar natural group of supporters. Instead, he must appeal to Ishida’s supporters. This is a tall order because Koizumi had urged Ishiba to step down. With this history, support from some of Ishiba’s allies may be hard to get. Koizumi does have the advantage of a close relationship with the leader of Ishin, Hirofumi Yoshimura. Takaichi expects cooperation from conservative parties, such as Sanseito.

Motegi and Hayashi both rely on the power of former factions. Motegi cannot count on support from Ishiba, and Hayashi expects Ishiba’s support since he was the deputy in the prime minister’s office. But the presidential election last year proved that factions, including the Aso faction, will not suffice as voting units. The LDP factions represented outmoded politics. 
 
The opposition parties have accused the LDP of creating a political vacancy in the election process. Encouraged by public opinion polls showing that the replacement of Ishiba will not raise the LDP’s credibility, the leader of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, degraded this LDP presidential election as “a consolation match” of the previous election a year ago.

Asia Policy Events Monday September 22, 2025

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