The Demise of the LDP

   "Takaichi's victory is going to hasten the decline and the eventual collapse of the LDP

...It's not if, but just when. It could happen fairly soon."

PRESS CONFERENCE

Japan's Next Prime Minister

Gerald L. Curtis

Burgess Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Columbia University

Monday, October 6, 2025

Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan

Asia Policy Events, Monday October 6, 2025

PRESS CONFERENCE: JAPAN'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER. 10/6, 11:00am-Noon (JST), 10/5 10:00pm (EDT). HYBRID. Sponsor: Foreign Correspondents Club Japan. Speaker: Gerald L. Curtis, Burgess Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Columbia University.

NAVIGATING TROUBLED WATERS: INSIGHTS AND PROSPECTS FROM THE MANILA DIALOGUES. 10/6, 7:00pm (JST), 6:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies. Speaker: Dr. Bich Tran, Research Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

AFTER ISHIBA: WHAT’S NEXT FOR JAPANESE POLITICS? 10/6, 8:00-8:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Victor Cha, President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, Korea Chair; Kristi Govella, Senior Adviser, Japan Chair; Nicholas Szechenyi, Vice President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, Senior Fellow, Japan Chair.

BETWEEN PEACE AND WAR: EXPLORING CHINA’S GRAY ZONE STRATEGY TOWARD TAIWAN. 10/6, 9:00-10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Stimson. Speakers: Kelly A. Grieco, Senior Fellow, Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center; James Siebens, Fellow, Strategic Foresight Hub, Stimson Center; Pam Kennedy, Deputy Director, China Program, Stimson Center (Moderator). 

RESPONDING TO TRUMP’S NEW FOREIGN POLICY PARADIGM. 10/6, 9:00-11:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Victor Cha, President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, Korea Chair, CSIS; Max Bergmann, Director,  Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies, CSIS; Oge Onubogu, Director/Senior Fellow, Africa Program, CSIS; Mona Yacoubian, Director/Senior Adviser, Middle East Program, CSIS; Charles Edel, Senior Adviser, Australia Chair, CSIS; Kristi Govella, Senior Adviser, Japan Chair, CSIS. 

‘‘SENSING THE CLIMATE”: HOW DO INTERNATIONAL POLICY MAKERS ‘SENSE’ NATURE? 10/6, Noon-1:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Johns Hopkins University SAIS. Speakers: Joanne Yao, Reader in International Relations, Queen Mary, University of London and Ludovica Chiussi Curzi; Senior Assistant Professor in Public International Law, University of Bologna.

BIG DEAL, SMALL DEAL, OR NO DEAL? POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF A TRUMP-XI SUMMIT. 10/6, 12:30-1:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Thomas J. Christensen, Pritzker Chair, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department; Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics; Henrietta Levin, Senior Fellow, Freeman Chair in China Studies; Bonny Lin, Senior Adviser, Director, China Power Project; Ilaria Mazzocco, Deputy Director/Senior Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics.

A STRATEGY FOR BIOSECURITY VICTORY. 10/6, 12:30-2:00pm (PDT), 3:30-5:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hoover Institution. Speakers: Drew Endy, Science Fellow and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Rear Admiral Kenneth Bernard, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution; Emily Clise Tully, Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution.

COOPERATION AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF INDO-PACIFIC TUNA FISHERIES. 10/6, 2:30-5:00pm (JST), 1:30-4:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Speakers: Transform Aqorau, Vice-Chancellor, Solomon Islands National University; Hussain Sinan, Director, General Fisheries and Ocean Resources Management, Maldives Ministry of Fisheries and Ocean Resources; Quentin Hanich, Fisheries Governance Program Leader, Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS). 

EXPLORING THE ART OF MANGA. 10/6, 5:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Japanese Art Society of America (JASA). Speaker: author Nicole Coolidge Rousmaniere, Director, Sainsbury Institute for the Study of Japanese Arts and Cultures, Professor of Japanese Art and Culture, University of East Anglia, U.K. PURCHASE BOOK

REPRESENTING TAIWAN IN DC: HOW TAIWANESE AMERICANS CAN BRIDGE CULTURE AND POLICY. 10/6, 5:30-7:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Global Taiwan Institute. Speakers: Tim Chng, Principal Software Developer, Yahoo Inc.; Adam Peir, Data Analyst, Former Board Member/President, Taiwanese American Professionals, Director of Civic Engagement, Taiwanese American Citizens League; David Tang, Principal, Washington DC Taiwanese School.

REVISITING THE JONES ACT: FROM PROTECTIONISM TO PARTNERSHIP. 10/6, 6:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Korea Society. Speaker: Colin Grabow, Associate Director, Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, Cato Institute.

Japan's Succession Battle Pits Moderates Against the Right

—and Korea Is Watching

Originally Published on The Peninsula, September 26, 2025

By Daniel Sneider, non-resident Distinguished Fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America, a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford University, and APP member.

As he heads out the revolving door of Japanese politics, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has two important stops on his agenda. The first will be in Busan, South Korea, for a meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung next week. The two leaders have vowed to solidify the momentum in closer relations and to make these meetings a regular feature of those ties.

Three days later, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will pick a new party leader, with the winner expected to become Japan’s prime minister. Immediately after that hurdle has been cleared, Ishiba is reportedly planning to deliver a long-expected major address, likely in Tokyo, on his version of the lessons of World War II and his vow not to repeat “the devastation of war.”

The outgoing Japanese leader represents the more liberal wing of the LDP and had hoped to cement ties with neighboring Korea and ease tensions with China while seeking more space to pursue an independent foreign policy. But his government was far too weak to take any bold steps. A longtime foe of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Ishiba may now be worried about the candidates for succession from the right, led by former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Sanae Takaichi.

A rare female figure in Japanese politics, Takaichi has embraced the anti-immigrant and hyper-patriotic rhetoric of the small but surprisingly successful Sanseito, which won fourteen seats in the last election for the upper house of the National Diet on a “Japan First” platform that consciously echoed the ideology and agenda of Donald Trump’s MAGA movement.

The prospect of a victory by Takaichi, who is considered a strong contender along with the more moderate Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of a former prime minister, also rattles close observers of Japan in Korea.

“Takaichi is a disaster for Korea,” said a former Korean ambassador to Japan, who spoke to this writer on background. “We are closely watching the succession process in Japanese politics,” added former Ambassador to Japan Shin Kak-soo. “It is true that we have concerns over the election of a hawkish PM who might derail the restoration process of Korea-Japan relations.”

Ambassador Shin, who remains active in promoting Korea-Japan ties, gives some credit to President Lee for continuing to build on the previous administration’s outreach. “Now the ball is in Japan’s court,” the former diplomat said. Takaichi, if elected, “would change her revisionist attitude toward the past history as President Lee Jae Myung did after his election,” he forecast.

The Battle within the LDP
The vote within the LDP comes little more than a year after Ishiba won an improbable victory in a similar contest following the resignation of then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. He inherited a party and a government that was widely discredited due to fundraising scandals and rising cost of living. Along with poor LDP election performance across Japan and other domestic issues, Ishiba faced the challenge of the Trump administration and harsh tariffs imposed on Japan.

Ishiba tried to hang onto power, including accepting a disadvantageous deal with the United States on tariffs and investment. But those defeats and signs of growing discontent ultimately forced his resignation.

The lineup of contenders this time is similar to the vote a year ago, though with only five candidates. The initial vote takes place among almost a million party members, given the equivalent of 295 votes, and 295 members of the parliament. If no one has a majority, there is a runoff with the legislative members and 47 votes from prefectural chapters. In that second round, the still-powerful party leaders—all of them former prime ministers—would have more sway.

Among the candidates, Takaichi is joined on the right by former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi. On the left, there is the current Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. In the center are two well-known figures—former Minister for Foreign Affairs Toshimitsu Motegi and Agriculture Minister Koizumi, the latter of whom leads in many polls. Whomever becomes party leader must still form a de facto coalition government in order to have a working majority—even informally—which requires forming a pact with the Komeito and at least one of the other opposition parties.

In the initial debates among the candidates, foreign policy has been at best a secondary issue. There has been disproportionately large attention paid to alleged problems with foreign workers and tourists, as well as immigration. But the main focus areas are curbing inflation, restoring the social security system, reducing taxes, and political reform.

The only foreign policy issue to get much attention has been the Trump administration’s tariffs. To the extent that foreign policy is a concern, the consensus among observers in Seoul and Tokyo is that the best choices are the two former foreign ministers, Hayashi and Motegi, both of whom have good reputations on the foreign policy front.

“The best choice for Japan’s diplomacy is undoubtedly Hayashi, who has steadily acted as a moderate as foreign minister,” says a veteran Japanese foreign policy reporter at a major daily newspaper. “He has a good record of dialogue with Beijing as well as with Washington.” In Seoul, “Hayashi and Motegi are favorable choices for us,” says Ambassador Shin. Hayashi is considered a long shot, but he could emerge if there is a stalemate between Takaichi and Koizumi, who faltered the last time around when he was considered an early favorite.

Conservative front-runner Takaichi has tried to soften her image but remains anathema to many inside and outside the party as too extreme and likely to scare away many voters. Possible coalition partners like the Komeito have already made clear that they will not join a government headed by her.

Who is Koizumi?
Koizumi, at age forty-four, is increasingly the odds-on favorite to become Japan’s next prime minister. The last time he ran, a year ago, he displayed the inexperience and lack of confidence that seemed to confirm the view that he is too young for the job. But this time around, he looks more polished and presents himself as the person who can both unify the LDP and broaden its appeal again, especially to younger voters. He is also considered more acceptable to the opposition parties that would have to cooperate to make him prime minister and pass vital legislation.

But there remain considerable questions about his foreign policy views, particularly his approach toward Korea and China. He has been a regular visitor to the Yasukuni Shrine, though only as a politician and cabinet minister, following in the footsteps of his father. He has avoided the question of whether he would visit as prime minister.

“Koizumi has two faces, conservative and realistic,” says the former Korean ambassador to Japan, who spoke on background. “Still, I am not that much worried about his position regarding Korea-Japan relations.” The former envoy points out that Koizumi’s parliamentary district in the Kanagawa area is home to a large population of Korean-Japanese residents.

Koizumi notably embraced the importance of Korea-Japan relations in a press conference announcing his candidacy, apparently eager to dispel the idea that he would turn in a more right-wing direction.

“South Korea is an important neighboring country with which we must cooperate as a partner in addressing various global challenges. The importance of South Korea-Japan relations and trilateral cooperation with the U.S. is growing,” Koizumi recently declared. He pledged continuity with the path taken by the previous two Japanese administrations.

Regardless of who wins the LDP leadership, the path ahead in Japan is likely to be fraught with ongoing political instability until the party wins a new election and regains its majority.

“For the time being, Japanese politics is in chaos and flux, limiting Japan’s international role,” concludes Ambassador Shin. “That is quite detrimental to our interests too.”

Asia Policy Events, Monday September 29, 2025

UNDERSTANDING THE THAILAND-CAMBODIA CONFLICT: HOW BORDER DISPUTES DRIVE DOMESTIC POLITICAL CRISES AND VICE VERSA. 9/29, 10:00-11:30am (SGT), 9/28, 10:00-11:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS). Speakers: Dr. Puangthong R. Pawakapan, Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University; Supalak Ganjanakhundee, Advisor, Military Affairs Committee, Thailand’s House of Representatives. 

WORLD WAR II AT 80: THE UNENDING QUEST FOR REDRESS. 9/29, 6:30pm (JST), 5:30am (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies. Speaker: Timothy Webster, Lawyer, Professor, Translator. 5

BOOK TALK: THE NATIONAL INTEREST: POLITICS AFTER GLOBALIZATION. 9/29, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy Institute. Speakers: author Philip Cunliffe, Associate Professor of International Relations, Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London; Dr. Zachary Paikin, Deputy Director, Better Order Project, Research Fellow, Grand Strategy Program, Quincy Institute.  PURCHASE BOOK

WHAT ROBERT F. KENNEDY’S LIBERAL PATRIOTISM COULD TEACH POLITICAL LEADERS TODAY. 9/29, 11:00am-12:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Progressive Policy Institute (PPI). Speakers: Robert Doar, President, AEI; Richard D. Kahlenberg, Director, American Identity Project, PPI; Will Marshall, President, PPI; Ritchie Torres, US House of Representatives (D-NY).

BREAKING TRADITION: PRESIDENT TRUMP’S APPROACH TO POLICY DECISIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION. 9/29, 12:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Japan Society. Speaker: Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce; Former Board Chair, Japan Society. Members only.

SHIFTING DYNAMICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: PYONGYANG'S OBSERVATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES. 9/29, 2:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: National Committee on North Korea. Speakers: Yaakov Katz, Israeli-American author and journalist, co-founder of MEAD; Siegfried Hecker, former director, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Professor Emeritus, Stanford University.

INTERNATIONAL LAW FOR WHOM? 9/29, 3:00-4:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: U.S.–Asia Law Institute. Speaker: Jean-Marc Coicaud, Distinguished Professor of Law and Global Affairs, Rutgers University, author The Law and Politics of International Legitimacy. PURCHASE BOOK

THE IDEAS THAT BUILT AMERICA—AND WHERE THEY STAND TODAY. 9/29, 5:00-6:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: R Street Institute. Speakers: Sabrina Schaeffer, Vice President, R Street Institute; Lindsay M. Chervinsky, PhD, Presidential Historian/Executive Director, George Washington Presidential Library at Mount Vernon. 

BEYOND TARIFFS: WHAT NEXT FOR THE GLOBAL TRADE REALIGNMENT? 9/29, 5:00-7:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Association of Women in International Trade (WIIT); George Washington University (GWU). Speakers: Christine McDaniel, Senior Economist, Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practice, World Bank Group; Daniel Ciarcia, Account Manager/Carbon Consultant, EcoEngineers; Bennett Caplan, President, Abridge; Jenny A. Kai, Senior Manager, Government and Public Affairs, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA). 

The LDP Presidential Campaign Begins

The LDP Enters the Policy Discussion Phase of its Presidential Election

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 22, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
 
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) kicked off its presidential election campaign on September 22. Five lawmakers officially submitted their candidacies to the party on the 22nd with only a 15 minute window to file. The deadline for entries has now passed. All five were losers in the last election a year ago.
 
Having lost the majority in both Houses of the Diet under the leadership of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the presidential election should be about how to regain power through reforming the party. Yet the candidates are not talking much about reform.  They are instead focusing on their economic policies for households or maneuvers to attract support from the opposition parties.
 
One of the biggest reasons for the defeats in the 2024 Lower House election and the 2025 Upper House election was the LDP’s kickback fund scandal. It revealed LDP’s mismanagement of political funds without transparency. The opposition parties called for stricter regulation of donations from companies and organizations, which have been the financial lifeline for the LDP.  After receiving protests from LDP lawmakers, Ishiba did not reach a consensus with the opposition on the issue. Ishiba announced his resignation as the LDP president on September 7.
 
The LDP set the presidential election for October 4 and opened the starting gate for campaigns on September 22. Five people have entered the race. They are: former Minister on Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, former LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former Minister on Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi. Each has his or her own platform.
 
Kobayashi is running on three key issues. First, he supports a temporary income tax cut with a fixed rate. The tax cut would provide greater benefits to high-income taxpayers than to low-income ones. Kobayashi would offset the cut with surplus tax revenue in the current year. Second, reflecting his hawkish perspective, Kobayashi supports an increase in the defense budget to more than 2 percent of GDP. Finally, he advocates greater regulation of foreign intervention in communications in Japan.
 
Announcing his candidacy immediately after Ishiba’s announcement, Motegi promises that he will pursue economic growth policies that will increase the annual income of each worker by 10 percent within three years. While other candidates prioritize policy talks with the opposition parties, Motegi aims to assemble a coalition to secure a majority in the Diet.
 
Hayashi would continue the policies of the Ishiba administration in the hope of attracting the votes of Ishiba and his allies. Setting a target of one percent growth in real wages each year, Hayashi would establish a Japanese version of “universal credit,” a social security payment which the United Kingdom has introduced. In addition, to reform the party, he would create a digital platform for real-time communications with the public. He would also amend the party constitution.
 
In her campaign speech at the LDP headquarters, Takaichi emphasized her conservative agenda. This includes greater regulation of foreigners in Japan, limiting the line of succession to the imperial throne to male offspring in the male line, and amendments to Japan’s Constitution. Unusually, however, she would pursue economic policies that include positions held by the opposition parties. These include a refundable tax credit system, a gasoline tax cut, and an increase in the income threshold for tax liability.
 
Finally, Koizumi has actually distanced himself from his platform a year ago. Party “reform” is no longer at the center of his campaign. He has also withdrawn his support for a different surname system and the deregulation of worker dismissals. Instead, Koizumi promises a one-million-yen increase in the annual average wage by FY2030 and domestic investment up to 135 trillion yen. These economic policies were already part of the Ishiba administration’s agenda.
 
Remarkably, none of the five candidates has offered a plan that would settle the dispute over regulation of (or prohibitions on) donations from companies and organizations. The opposition parties have proposed new regulations on and even the abolition of this kind of fundraising. If the LDP insists on this traditional form of fundraising, the party will retain its negative image as an old-line party.
 
In the polls by news organizations, Takaichi has the greatest popularity among general voters. However, among LDP supporters, Koizumi has the greatest support, and only LDP members will vote in the election. There is no certainty that the party election results will be consistent with the popularity of the candidates among the public voters.
 
Five is the largest number of candidates in the history of LDP presidential elections except for the 2024 election, which had nine. Since a candidate can win only with a majority vote, it is almost certain that the election will go to a run-off. Negotiations over policies among the candidates may determine the winner; there is no way to predict which of the five will emerge victoriously.

LDP Rematch

Consolation Match for the Five LDP Presidency Candidates

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 15, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

A week after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, the campaign for the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) began. It has turned into a race with five entrants – all of whom lost in the last election a year ago. The race is likely to be about which candidate can “change” the ailing party’s culture through political funding reform and can manage Diet affairs without a majority in either chamber.
 
Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, resigned last September, in the face of public criticism of the kickback fund scandal by some factions in the LDP. Ishiba succeeded Kishida in the expectation that he would reform a party that relied heavily on donations from companies and business organizations. Ishiba was caught in the middle of a party struggle over whether to ban those donations.
 
Ishiba had promised last December that he would have a legislative solution to reform political donations by the end of March, but he did not deliver. Instead, he continued to discuss reforms with the opposition parties, some of which demanded the total abolition of donations from companies and organizations.
 
In the Lower House election last October, the LDP lost its majority. Responsibility for the loss fell largely on Kishida since the election took place shortly after Ishiba assumed the PM position. Ishiba could not, however, avoid responsibility when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House election last July. “I could not meet the expectation for change,” Ishiba said in his resignation press conference.
 

The LDP called a presidential election on October 4. Candidates must file entry forms on September 22, when the party will officially open the election. Five candidates are reportedly willing to run for the president.
 
Former Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi was the first to step forward. In his press conference to announce his candidacy, Motegi emphasized his economic policy that would increase take-home pay for many Japanese. This policy resonates with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). Motegi also mentioned the possibility of building a leading coalition with the DPP or the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) that would hold a majority in the Diet.
 
Motegi is running with the support of former colleagues in his now defunct faction, many of whom were leading the anti-Ishiba movement in the LDP after the Upper House election. He also met one-on-one with former prime minister Taro Aso, who openly opposed Ishiba. Polls have shown, however, that many Japanese did not believe that Ishiba should have resigned. This polling data may force Motegi to explain his differences with Ishiba. Motegi will have to develop a plan for party reform.
 
Other candidates try to catch up Motegi. Former Minister on Economic Security, Takayuki Kobayashi, announced his candidacy on September 16. As a candidate in the age of 50, representing young generation, Kobayashi upheld policies for young generation, including income tax cut. His team is headed by former Minister of Defense, Yasukazu Hamada, who is elected from Chiba, the same prefecture as Kobayashi.
 
Two ministers in Ishiba Cabinet showed apparent interest in the election on the same day. Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, revealed that he had told his candidacy to his supporters in his hometown, Yokosuka. Although official announcement will be later this week, it is surprising that Minister of Finance, Katsunobu Kato, will lead Koizumi’s team, instead of running for the president.
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, also told his intention to run for the president in his regular press conference. As a core member of Ishiba Cabinet, Hayashi insisted on succeeding policies of Ishiba administration. Supporters for Hayashi consist of lawmakers with former Kishiba faction, supposedly with backing of Kishida himself. He is expected to have another press conference to publicize his policies.
 
Former Minister on Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, is expected to officially announce her bid for the president later this week. She mainly receives supports from the conservative lawmakers who were frustrated with Ishiba administration. Reiterating a phrase of “rebuild backbone of the party,” Takaichi hopes to restore the cause of conservatives, which gained momentum in the time of former prime minister Shinzo Abe.
 
Takaichi and Koizumi currently dominate. In the election last November, Takaichi finished second and Koizumi third. Both enjoyed broad public support in and did not rely on a specific faction. Takaichi has a firm base of support among conservatives. Koizumi has the support of former premier Yoshihide Suga and younger party members.
 
But neither one is likely to win in the first round. To win in the first round, a candidate must garner at least 296 votes: a majority of all 590 votes: 295 for lawmakers and 295 for local party members. In any subsequent run-off election local party members have only 47 votes. The successful candidate must win at least 171 votes out of 342.
 
If the run-off pits Takaichi against Koizumi, conservative votes, including those who have supported Kobayashi, will go for Takaichi. Koizumi does not have a similar natural group of supporters. Instead, he must appeal to Ishida’s supporters. This is a tall order because Koizumi had urged Ishiba to step down. With this history, support from some of Ishiba’s allies may be hard to get. Koizumi does have the advantage of a close relationship with the leader of Ishin, Hirofumi Yoshimura. Takaichi expects cooperation from conservative parties, such as Sanseito.

Motegi and Hayashi both rely on the power of former factions. Motegi cannot count on support from Ishiba, and Hayashi expects Ishiba’s support since he was the deputy in the prime minister’s office. But the presidential election last year proved that factions, including the Aso faction, will not suffice as voting units. The LDP factions represented outmoded politics. 
 
The opposition parties have accused the LDP of creating a political vacancy in the election process. Encouraged by public opinion polls showing that the replacement of Ishiba will not raise the LDP’s credibility, the leader of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, degraded this LDP presidential election as “a consolation match” of the previous election a year ago.

Asia Policy Events Monday September 22, 2025

2025 CONCORDIA ANNUAL SUMMIT. 9/21-24, New York City, IN PERSON ONLY. Fee. 

BOOK TALK: GHOST NATION: THE STORY OF TAIWAN AND ITS STRUGGLE FOR SURVIVAL. 9/22, 6:30-8:00pm (JST), 5:30-7:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: ICAS, Temple University Japan Campus. Speaker: author Chris Horto, Taipei-based Journalist; Moderators: Andy Sharp, Opinion Editor, Nikkei Asia; Robert Dujarric, ICAS Co-director. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/4nLd4HW 

BEYOND GDP: A VIRTUAL UNGA80 SIDE EVENT. 9/22, 9:00-10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). Speakers: Enrico Giovannini, Professor, University of Rome; Scientific Director, Italian Alliance for Sustainable Development; Naila Kabeer, Emeritus Professor, Department of International Development and Faculty of the International Inequalities Institute, London School of Economics; Csaba Kőrösi, 77th President, UN General Assembly; Co-chair, UN Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals; Attiya Waris, Faculty of Law, University of Nairobi and House of Fiscal Wisdom, Kenya; Livia Bizikova, Lead, Monitoring and Evaluation, IISD.

AMERICANS EVENTUALLY REJECTED THE GWOT. WILL ISRAELIS REJECT THEIR WAR ON GAZA? 9/22, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy. Speakers: Aslı Ü. Bâli, Howard M. Holtzmann Professor of Law, Yale Law School; Non-resident fellow, Quincy; Peter Beinart, Professor of Journalism and Political Science, Newmark School of Journalism, City University of New York; Ori Goldberg, Independent Commentator and Analyst; Annelle Sheline, Research Fellow, Middle East Program, Quincy.

WP INTELLIGENCE AT THE CONCORDIA ANNUAL SUMMIT. 9/22, 9:00am-5:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: WP Intelligence, Washington Post. Speakers Include: Luiza Savage, WP Intelligence Editorial Director; Josh Rogin, Lead Global Security Analyst; Jason Dean, Lead AI & Tech Analyst. 

Asia Policy Events, Monday September 15, 2025

BRUSSELS SPROUTS LIVE: EUROPE WITH LESS U.S.: PREVENTING RUSSIA OPPORTUNISTIC

AGGRESSION IN EUROPE. 9/15, 11:30-12:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Speakers: General (Ret.) Philip Breedlove, Former Commander of U.S. European Command; Former 17th Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations; Admiral (Ret.) James Foggo, Former Commander of the United States Naval Forces Europe-Africa; Former Commander of Allied Joint Force Command Naples; Moderator: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Program Director and Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Security Program, CNAS; Jim Townsend, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Security Program, CNAS. 

TAIWAN'S CHINA-FREE DRONE PRODUCTION: SUCCESSES AND CONTINUED CHALLENGES. 9/15, Noon-1:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Global Taiwan Institute. Speakers: Matthew Fulco, Journalist, Aviation Week; Lotta Danielsson, Vice President, US-Taiwan Business Council; Dr. Hong-Lun Tiunn, Deputy Director, National Security Program, Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET). 

SECURING AMERICA’S TECHNOLOGICAL EDGE: A CONVERSATION WITH USPTO ACTING DIRECTOR COKE MORGAN STEWART. 9/15, Noon-1:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: Coke Morgan Stewart, Acting Deputy Under Secretary of Commerce, Intellectual Property, Acting Director, United States Patent and Trademark Office; Adam Mossoff, Chair, Forum for Intellectual Property, Senior Fellow. 

RETHINKING THE PAST OF CONFLICT, IMAGINING THE FUTURE OF PEACE IN EAST ASIA.  9/15, 4:00-7:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Pennsylvania State University Institute for Korean Studies. Speakers: Aiko Utsumi, Professor Emeritus, Keisen University; Takashi Fujitani, University of Toronto; Dongeun Shin, Kangwon National University; Min-Chul Kim, Kyung Hee University; Jae-Jung Suh, International Christian University; Ran Zwigenberg, Pennsylvania State University. 6:00–6:40pm Roundtable Discussion: Dong-Choon Kim (Sungkonghoe University); Lisa Yoneyama University of Toronto,*online); Jan Thompson (ADBC Memorial Society, *online); Hong Kal, (York University, Canada); Inkyu Kang (Penn State); Dae‑yeol Yea (Sunchon National University,*online); Hyun-kuk Sung (PeaceNetwork); Shin Chang; (The Academy of Korean Studies,*online). https://events.la.psu.edu/event/rethinking-the-past/  REGISTRATION.

AFTER THE PANDEMIC: REVISING A TEXTBOOK AND RETHINKING HISTORY. 9/15, 7:00-8:00pm (EDT), 9/16, 8:00-9:30am (JST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Modern Japan History Association. Speaker: Dr. Andrew Gordon, Lee and Juliet Folger Fund Professor of History, Harvard University. 9

Inevitable transition

Ishiba Announces He Is Stepping Down

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun. The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 8, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

Acknowledging his responsibility for the serious defeat in the Upper House elections in July, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation on September 7. Although he sought a way to stay in office after the election, backed by public opinion that he did not have to leave, the anti-Ishiba movement in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) overwhelmed Ishiba’s continuity plan. The LDP presidential election, which is likely to name the next prime minister, will be held on October 4.

Ishiba announced his resignation at an abrupt press conference on Sunday evening. “I’ve been saying that I would not insist on my position, I would make a decision at a proper time, and I am responsible for the result of the election. Now is the proper time to open my position to a successor, because we could conclude tariff negotiations with the United States,” Ishiba said.

With the defeat in the Upper House elections on July 20, the leading coalition of the LDP and Komeito fell into minority positions in both Chambers of the Diet. Ishiba sought advice on how to continue the government from three former prime ministers, Taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida, three days after the election. Although Ishiba denied that the meetings covered his possible resignation, it was reported that the three former premiers did not unequivocally support Ishiba staying in office.

Achievements in tariff negotiations with the U.S. and the expansion of rice production gave the Ishiba Cabinet a bump in its approval rating in August. In the polls, people considered the LDP’s defeat to be more a function of the LDP slush fund scandal than of Ishiba’s mishandling of the election campaign. Nevertheless, anti-Ishiba groups in the LDP called for Ishiba’s resignation and an early presidential election to replace him.

The LDP decided to conduct a count on September 8 of how many lawmakers and local branches would demand an early election. Ishiba made up his mind to step down a day before this showdown. “If we proceed to the process for an early presidential election, it will cause a division of our party. That was not what I want,” Ishiba explained about his decision. The LDP cancelled the count.

A day before the announcement, Ishiba had met with Suga and the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi. After 30 minutes, Suga left, and Koizumi had a one-on-one meeting with Ishiba for 90 minutes. It was reported that Suga and Koizumi urged Ishiba to resign to avoid a division of the party. Now isolated, Ishiba decided to resign.

The argument of Suga and Koizumi that Ishiba would avoid disruption of the LDP by resigning did not in fact make good sense because the LDP has already been divided. Anti-Ishiba groups, notably the former Abe faction, have been frustrated with Ishiba’s leadership from the beginning. There has been a rivalry between Ishiba and former prime minister Shinzo Abe ever since Ishiba had rejected Abe’s offer to be his minister in charge of security legislation in 2014. This position oversaw the radical reinterpretation of Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan.

Ishiba’s and Abe’s antagonism stemmed from a political war in the 1970s between Kakuei Tanaka, Ishiba’s political mentor, and Takeo Fukuda, a founder of the Seiwa Policy Group which was the official name of the former Abe faction. Looking back further, the LDP originally was the result of a merger in 1955 of the conservative Democratic Party of Japan and the relatively dovish Liberal Party. From the beginning, no leader has been found in the LDP who could reconcile the fundamental difference between those two parties: the historical revisionists pushing for an immediate constitutional amendment and the moderates advocating domestic decentralization.

As prime minister, Ishiba was unusually adept at handling competing policies. Although he could not deliver an official statement on August 15 to recognize the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, Ishiba included, in his address at the memorial ceremony, the word “remorse” in reference to Japan’s invasion of neighboring countries. Abe, in contrast, refrained from expressing “remorse” in his annual addresses.

On another issue, however, campaign contributions from companies and organizations, Ishiba was unable to abolish them after protests from anti-Ishiba powers in the LDP. Ishiba regretted that he could not deliver the kind of political reform sought by the public.

After Ishiba’s resignation, the LDP decided to hold a presidential election on October 4 to elect a successor. The election will be held in “full spec version,” in which lawmakers and general party members have equivalent votes. In the full-spec version, each of 295 Diet members of LDP has one vote, and hundreds of thousands of votes by general LDP members are proportionally divided into 295 votes.

There is a speculation that the two leading contenders are Koizumi and former Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi. Both have yet to announce their candidacies. Former LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, who has allied himself with Aso’s faction. A young conservative, Takayuki Kobayashi, is another possible entrant in the race. Electioneering begins on September 22.

One significant difference between the October 4 election and previous LDP presidential elections is that the winner will not necessarily be elected prime minister in the Diet. The LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito do not have a majority vote in either Chamber. That is, the opposition parties can elect their own prime minister if they can agree to back a single candidate.

But the opposition parties are too fragmented to do so. One possible consensus candidate is the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan Yoshihiko Noda. Yet some opposition lawmakers may vote for an LDP candidate rather than for an opposition candidate from another party. For there to be smooth negotiations with the opposition parties to name a prime minister or to pass a budget bill, the next LDP president will be required to have an ability to talk convincingly and work closely with the opposition parties.

Asia Policy Events, Monday, September 8, 2025

ARE YOUTHS MOVING TO THE RIGHT? INSIGHTS FROM SURVEYS IN INDONESIA AND THAILAND. 9/8, 10:00-11:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Speakers: Voradon Lerdrat, Researcher and Director of Research and Policy Partnerships, 101 Public Policy Think Tank, Thailand; Dr Iim Halimatusa’diyah, Visiting Senior Fellow at the Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 

, 

AMERICA'S PROPULSION ADVANTAGE AND WHY IT'S IMPORTANT: INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE. 9/8, 10:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Speakers: Steve Russell, Vice President & General Manager, Edison Works at GE Aerospace; Lt Gen David A. Deptula USAF (Ret.), Dean, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. 

THE ENDURING LEGACIES OF WORLD WAR II IN EAST ASIA: REFLECTIONS 80 YEARS LATER. 9/8, Noon-1:15pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsors: Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Korea Institute - Harvard University, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations - Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University Asia Center, Edwin O. Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies. Speakers: Thomas Berger, Professor of International Relations, Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University; Mark Caprio, Professor Emeritus, Rikkyo University, Tokyo; Kim Koo Visiting Professor of Korean Studies, Department of East Asian Languages and Civilizations, Harvard University; Rana Mitter, ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations, Harvard Kennedy School; Christina Davis, Edwin O. Reischauer Professor of Japanese Politics, Department of Government and Director, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, Harvard University. 

TRUMP VS. HISTORY. 9/8, 4:00-5:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: New Republic. Speakers: David Blight, Sterling Professor, American History, Yale University; James Grossman, Executive Director, American Historical Association; Leslie M. Harris, Professor of History and Black Studies, Northwestern University; Amna Khalid, Professor of History, Carleton College. 

RIGHT-WING HISTORICAL MYTHS: A CHALLENGE FOR SOCIETY, ACADEMIA AND POLITICS. 9/8, 7:00-9:00pm (AEST), 1:00-3:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Heinrich Böll Foundation. Speakers: Frank Bösch, Historian and Director, Leibniz Centre for Contemporary History Potsdam; Constanze Itzel, Director, House of European History, Brussels; Katja Meier, Member, Saxon State Parliament; Former Saxon State Minister of Justice and for Democracy, Europe and Equality, Alliance 90/The Greens; Volker Weiß, Historian and Journalist; Moderator: Christine Watty, Editorial Director and Presenter, Deutschlandfunk Kultur, Berlin.

BOOK TALK: NEW BOOKS ON JAPAN: EXHIBITIONIST JAPAN: THE SPECTACLE OF MODERN DEVELOPMENT. 9/8, 8:00-9:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Modern Japan History Association. Speakers: author Angus Lockyer, Lecturer, Rhode Island School of Design; Jordan Sand, Professor of History, Georgetown University; Moderator: Joseph Seeley, Associate Professor of History, University of Virginia.  PURCHASE BOOK 

Ishiba Isolated

Going it alone, with the public

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun. The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 3, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

In a Joint Plenary Meeting (JPM) on September 2, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wrapped up its assessment of their disastrous July 20 Upper House elections. The party attributed the defeat to the slush fund scandal, and it did not explicitly refer to the responsibility of the party president and prime minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Ishiba announced his willingness to continue as the prime minister in the meeting and apologized for the loss of seats in the election. However, four LDP leaders, including Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama, offered their resignations to Ishiba. Ishiba now appears to be isolated from the LDP leadership.

The political struggle in the LDP over replacing Ishiba has continued even after the mid-August commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Asia-Pacific’s War’s end. Anti-Ishiba groups in the LDP have been trying to gather votes for an early presidential election, and LDP leaders have been trying to block that effort.

Following up on a decision of the JPM last month, on August 8, the LDP plans to hear from its lawmakers and local branches on whether the party should hold a presidential election before the end of Ishiba’s term, which expires in September 2027. The LDP constitution provides that an early election will take place when a majority of LDP lawmakers, which currently is 295, plus a majority of 47 local branches request one. Now, the majority consists of 172 votes or more.

The LDP Presidential Election Committee has decided that the requests for an early election will not be anonymous. The decision will make it difficult for party members to gather enough votes to request such an election -- that is, to demand Ishiba’s resignation – because they are afraid of retribution from Ishiba if the vote falls short.

In midst of this party struggle, another JPM was held on September 2. A special committee reviewing the Upper House election submitted a report to the JPM. It concluded that the LDP’s defeat was caused primarily by the secret fund scandal. The report also observed that voters had not accepted the LDP’s measures on price inflation and that a gaffe by an LDP member damaged the image of the party. The report did not place responsibility on Ishiba. The report concluded that the party needs to “restart from dissolution,” a phrase which has often been used in crises of the party in the past.

In the JPM on September 2, Ishiba announced that he would stay on as the LDP president and prime minister. “I could not meet the people’s demand for change,” said Ishiba, recognizing his role in the defeat in the Upper House election. He emphasized his willingness to advance his agenda, including tariff negotiations with the United States, agricultural policy, slowing price inflation, and disaster prevention. Recognizing his responsibility for the lost seats and not clinging to his position as prime minister, Ishiba said that he would make “a decision” on his presidency in a proper time.

His senior staff members took another way – four of them revealed their intention to resign. Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama announced in the JPM that he would step down to take responsibility for the electoral defeat. Three other leaders, Itsunori Onodera, the chief of the policy council, Shunichi Suzuki, the chair of the general council, and Seiji Kihara, the chair of the election committee also submitted letters of resignation. “You too?” Ishiba reportedly murmured when he received them. He now must decide whether to accept them.

The LDP has entered the official process to consider whether to hold an early presidential election. LDP lawmakers and local branches who favor an early election must submit those requests by September 8. If the party receives 172 or more such requests, an early presidential election will be held. A heavyweight in the LDP, Taro Aso, announced that he would demand such an election.

According to Yomiuri Shimbun’s survey of the lawmakers and local branches, 128 will vote for an early election. Only 33 have formally taken the position that an election is unnecessary. The remaining 181 lawmakers or branches have not yet decided or are unwilling to communicate their decisions.

Polls show that Ishiba retains a material measure of popular support. In a poll taken by Yomiuri Shimbun in late August, 50 percent of respondents thought Ishiba did not have to resign, while 42 percent thought he should. When asked about the reason for the loss in the Upper House election, 81 percent placed responsibility on the LDP lawmakers who were involved in the political funds scandal. Fifty percent of all respondents thought Ishiba’s responsibility was great, but this percentage is much lower than the percentage that attributes the loss to the scandal.

Even more favorable to Ishiba is a gradual increase in his approval rating. In a poll taken by the Mainichi Shimbun, the approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet was 33 percent, a four percentage point increase from July. According to the poll, Ishiba is the most suitable person as prime minister with the support of 21 percent of the respondents, followed by Sanae Takaichi with 14 percent and Shinjiro Koizumi with nine percent.

As anti-Ishiba movements spread in the LDP, the difference between anti-Ishiba powers in the party and public opinion widens. If the LDP replaces the president, there is no assurance that the party will be able to regain the power to lead an administration based on a minority government. The LDP lawmakers and local branches face a choice to oust Ishiba to attract public attention or rebuild the party under his leadership.