By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 3, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Because the LDP is a minority party in Japan’s House of Representatives, Shigeru Ishiba’s administration lacks a free hand in Diet procedures. Rare phenomena, in which the opposition parties take the initiative, have now occurred in the discussion over FY 2025 budget bill. Ishiba hopes to reverse this negative trend by building close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump in a summit meeting in Washington, DC scheduled for February 7. Given recent dramatic changes in U.S. foreign policy generally, it is impossible to predict the outcome of that meeting.
In the meantime, it is likely that the Ishiba administration will revise the pending budget bill, which was originally submitted to the Diet in January. The revisions may include requests from the opposition parties. Ishiba has not ruled it out. “I do not exclude any possibility to accept proposals from a party, if it offers voting for our budget bill with condition of reviewing a part of the budget,” said Ishiba in an interview with the weekly magazine, Sunday Mainichi.
The opposition parties have some proposals that have been part of their platforms for several months. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) wants to raise threshold for imposing income tax to annual income of ¥1.78 million. The cost of this relief is estimated at 7 to 8 trillion yen. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) calls for free tuition in every high school, which would cost of 600 billion yen. On the other side, the leading opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), proposes cutting 7 trillion yen from the budget. Yet the CDPJ also seeks cuts in the gasoline tax cut, free school lunch, and better treatment for nursery workers.
Ishiba needs to consider which requests he will honor, but revisions to the budget bill will be necessary in any case. It has been over 30 years since the government has withdrawn a budget bill and resubmitted a revised one. In 1991, revisions were necessary to enable Japan to make a financial contribution to support multinational forces in the Gulf War.
In addition to forcing revisions to the budget bill, the DCPJ has kept the slush fund scandal in the news. At the behest of Chairman Jun Azumi, a leader of the CDPJ, the Committee for the Budget in the Lower House voted to require the former accounting manager of the Abe faction to appear at a hearing on the scandal. (He has refused.) Although this kind of hearing typically is set by the Committee’s unanimous approval, Azumi made a point of taking a vote for the first time in 51 years. Azumi also introduced a new system of intensive discussion on the budget in which specific questions are posed to each ministry.
These surges of the opposition power may further erode public confidence on leadership of Ishiba. It is good news for Ishiba that he has an opportunity to meet with Trump, an opportunity much longed for on Ishiba’s part.
“We will talk about how to align the national interests of both countries to bring Japan-US alliance to greater heights,” said Ishiba in the discussions of the Lower House budget committee. Ishiba hopes to reaffirm in the meeting the importance of the rule of law based on the concept of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.
Ishiba also hopes that the U.S. will reaffirm its commitment to Article 5 of Japan-U.S. Security Treaty which guarantees that the U.S. will defend Japan, including Senkaku Islands. Ordinarily, the U.S. would reaffirm this commitment as a matter of course, but it is now not a certainty. A failure to do so would have ramifications across all of Asia and the Pacific, not just in Japan.
In any event, economic issues seem to be the priority in the U.S. with Trump’s imposition of new tariffs on products from Canada, China, and Mexico – although these seem to be a moving target. Trump later agreed to a 30-day pause on imposing tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Stressing Japan’s growing investment in the U.S. or the purchase of LNG gas from the U.S., Ishiba will try to stay clear of any new and onerous tariffs on Japanese goods.
The opposition parties in Japan demand that Ishiba to talk to Trump about his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization, as well as his denial of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel. Ishiba, however, is unlikely to make any progress on any of these issues. Ishiba’s highest priority at the summit will be to pave the way for a frank, personal relationship.
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 3, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Because the LDP is a minority party in Japan’s House of Representatives, Shigeru Ishiba’s administration lacks a free hand in Diet procedures. Rare phenomena, in which the opposition parties take the initiative, have now occurred in the discussion over FY 2025 budget bill. Ishiba hopes to reverse this negative trend by building close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump in a summit meeting in Washington, DC scheduled for February 7. Given recent dramatic changes in U.S. foreign policy generally, it is impossible to predict the outcome of that meeting.
In the meantime, it is likely that the Ishiba administration will revise the pending budget bill, which was originally submitted to the Diet in January. The revisions may include requests from the opposition parties. Ishiba has not ruled it out. “I do not exclude any possibility to accept proposals from a party, if it offers voting for our budget bill with condition of reviewing a part of the budget,” said Ishiba in an interview with the weekly magazine, Sunday Mainichi.
The opposition parties have some proposals that have been part of their platforms for several months. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) wants to raise threshold for imposing income tax to annual income of ¥1.78 million. The cost of this relief is estimated at 7 to 8 trillion yen. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) calls for free tuition in every high school, which would cost of 600 billion yen. On the other side, the leading opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), proposes cutting 7 trillion yen from the budget. Yet the CDPJ also seeks cuts in the gasoline tax cut, free school lunch, and better treatment for nursery workers.
Ishiba needs to consider which requests he will honor, but revisions to the budget bill will be necessary in any case. It has been over 30 years since the government has withdrawn a budget bill and resubmitted a revised one. In 1991, revisions were necessary to enable Japan to make a financial contribution to support multinational forces in the Gulf War.
In addition to forcing revisions to the budget bill, the DCPJ has kept the slush fund scandal in the news. At the behest of Chairman Jun Azumi, a leader of the CDPJ, the Committee for the Budget in the Lower House voted to require the former accounting manager of the Abe faction to appear at a hearing on the scandal. (He has refused.) Although this kind of hearing typically is set by the Committee’s unanimous approval, Azumi made a point of taking a vote for the first time in 51 years. Azumi also introduced a new system of intensive discussion on the budget in which specific questions are posed to each ministry.
These surges of the opposition power may further erode public confidence on leadership of Ishiba. It is good news for Ishiba that he has an opportunity to meet with Trump, an opportunity much longed for on Ishiba’s part.
“We will talk about how to align the national interests of both countries to bring Japan-US alliance to greater heights,” said Ishiba in the discussions of the Lower House budget committee. Ishiba hopes to reaffirm in the meeting the importance of the rule of law based on the concept of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.
Ishiba also hopes that the U.S. will reaffirm its commitment to Article 5 of Japan-U.S. Security Treaty which guarantees that the U.S. will defend Japan, including Senkaku Islands. Ordinarily, the U.S. would reaffirm this commitment as a matter of course, but it is now not a certainty. A failure to do so would have ramifications across all of Asia and the Pacific, not just in Japan.
In any event, economic issues seem to be the priority in the U.S. with Trump’s imposition of new tariffs on products from Canada, China, and Mexico – although these seem to be a moving target. Trump later agreed to a 30-day pause on imposing tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Stressing Japan’s growing investment in the U.S. or the purchase of LNG gas from the U.S., Ishiba will try to stay clear of any new and onerous tariffs on Japanese goods.
The opposition parties in Japan demand that Ishiba to talk to Trump about his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization, as well as his denial of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel. Ishiba, however, is unlikely to make any progress on any of these issues. Ishiba’s highest priority at the summit will be to pave the way for a frank, personal relationship.
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