Japanese Diet Politics

Ishiba Close to a Majority in the Diet

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 23, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

Japan’s leading coalition in its Diet, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, is close to a deal with the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) to garner support for increasing support for high school tuition. This would give Shigeru Ishiba’s government a Diet majority to revise and pass its FY 2025 budget bill. Ishin’s support marks the first time that the LDP has achieved a majority with support from an opposition party in such a major issue as an annual budget, since it lost its majority in last October’s general election.

The leaders of the LDP, Komeito, and Ishin parties wrapped up a draft to eliminate the annual income cap (now set at 9.1 million yen) on eligibility for a family to receive 118 thousand yen for high school tuition. This provision would take effect in FY 2025. For students attending private high schools, which generally are more expensive than public schools, the government would pay a supplement of up to 457 thousand yen beginning in FY 2026. There would be no income cap on this supplement either.

At the behest of Ishin, the coalition also promised to increase support for scholarships for low-income families and to introduce free lunch in elementary schools beginning in FY 2026. These policies will cost approximately 550 billion yen. The government needs to add 200 billion yen of spendings to the FY 2025 budget. The rest of the 350 billion yen is supposed to be included in the FY 2026 budget. Subject to confirmation from Ishin, the House of Representatives will approve the budget by March 2, the effective deadline for the bill to pass the Diet before FY 2025 starts on April 1.

Getting majority approval in the Diet has been the top priority for the Ishiba administration since LDP’s October election defeat. Its coalition with Komeito looked for another partner to form a majority in the Lower House. Although the first possible partner was the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), their trilateral discussion was gridlocked with quarrels over raising the threshold for imposition of an income tax. The threshold is currently 1.03 million yen in family annual income.

While the LDP, Komeito, and DPP held discussions intermittently since last December, Ishin began separate negotiations with the LDP-Komeito coalition. The main negotiator for Ishin was its co-leader, Seiji Maehara, who joined the party just before last October’s election. Free education has been at the top of Maehara’s personal agenda.

Taking advantage of his personal relationship with Prime Minister Ishiba and LDP policy chief Itsunori Onodera, Maehara reached a deal with the LDP and Komeito. Ishin thus beat the DPP in the race to cooperate with the LDP and Komeito for control of the Diet. Together they will implement policies that will appeal to voters before this summer’s Upper House elections.

Seeming to have secured a majority for the budget bill in the Lower House, Ishiba has managed to avoid his first political crisis. Failure to pass the budget bill by the deadline could have been fatal to his administration. There are some historical examples in which a stalemate over the annual budget bill destroyed a cabinet, as seen in the Noboru Takeshita Cabinet with the Recruit Scandal in 1989 or in Tsutomu Hata’s minority government in 1994. Inability to pass a budget bill might also lead to calls in the leading party to replace the prime minister.

Ishiba still faces protests from the opposition parties on political reform. Although the opposition parties want a prohibition on political donations from private companies and organizations, these groups are the main donors to the LDP. Ishiba accordingly has opposed a complete ban. The LDP has promised to resolve the stand-off by the end of March.

To avoid a no-confidence resolution in the House of Representatives, which would cause political volatility, Ishiba hopes to attract as much support as possible from the opposition parties. His coalition with Komeito continues discussions with the DPP over an income tax break. The LDP-Komeito coalition simultaneously is negotiating with the biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

An administration with a majority in both Houses does not have to discuss policies with the opposition. But the Ishiba administration is more vulnerable than any LDP administration in the past two decades. They must expend considerable time and energy on such discussions.