By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun. The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 9, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba did not bungle his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Indeed, he returned with a renewed U.S. commitment to security in the Indo-Pacific region. Although Ishiba was not able to get Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel over the finish line, he did elicit a favorable statement from Trump encouraging possible passive Japanese investment in U.S. Steel. More importantly for Ishiba in domestic politics, the opposition parties gave his diplomacy a positive review. Still, Ishiba returned to Tokyo with a stack of homework.
The U.S.-Japan Joint Statement reaffirmed that Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, which commits U.S. to the defense of Japan, would be applied to the Senkaku Islands. The statement also confirmed the continuity of regional multilateral security frameworks through the QUAD (with Australia and India) and trilateral cooperation arrangements with the Republic of Korea and the Philippines. These arrangements were established or enhanced under former President Joe Biden.
As is now the practice in Washington, U.S. government action comes at a price. The price of the U.S. commitments to Japan is one trillion dollars, although Japan was already on course to pay most of that price. Ishiba pledged in the meeting to raise Japan’s investments in the U.S. from $800 billion to an unprecedented $1 trillion. The statement provides that the two leaders will seek to promote business opportunities and significantly increase bilateral investment and employment.
Ishiba framed Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel, which had been rejected by Biden, not as an acquisition but as an investment. “Investment to U.S. Steel produces goods contributing to the world with Japanese technology. I share a notion with the president that Japan’s investment does not cause unilateral benefit of one of us,” said Ishiba in the joint press conference. Trump did not reverse Biden’s decision, but did open the door, for now, Nippon Steel to have a non-controlling investment.
Assessments of Ishiba’s debut in bilateral diplomacy with Trump were respectable Although most people in Japan were skeptical of Ishiba’s ability to build a close personal relationship with Trump, Ishiba succeeded in avoiding any hard demands from Trump such as higher tariffs on Japanese products or greater defense spending.
“No surprise was the greatest surprise,” said one of the lawmakers in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Ken Saito. A leader of the LDP Upper House members welcomed the outcome of the summit meeting and expected a positive impact on the Upper House elections this summer. Even the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, acknowledged Ishiba’s achievements.
Ishiba’s success, if limited, was the product of at least four factors. First, Ishiba put money in front of Trump. Calculating Japan’s current investment in the U.S at 800 billion dollars, Ishiba offered up a new investment goal of one trillion dollars. Ishiba may also have proposed an investment of $2.7 billion by Nippon Steel directly in U.S. Steel on top of the $14.1 billion purchase price. At least that seemed to the story in Asahi Shimbun, which reported that the CEO of U.S. Steel had made a new proposal in a meeting with Trump on the day before the summit meeting.
Second, Ishiba took advantage of personal connections. For example, to prepare to explain Japan’s investment in the U.S., Ishiba met with his high school classmate, the chairman of Toyota Motor Co., Akio Toyoda. Ishiba also consulted with the founder of SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, who had announced a $100 billion investment in the U.S. Son is an old friend of the foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya, Ishiba’s closest political ally.
Ishiba also relied on the friendship between his former political enemy, Shinzo Abe, and Trump. Ishiba told Trump that “the very close relationship between Japan and the U.S. was built by the president and late prime minister Shinzo Abe.” Ishiba stressed that Japan would continue its firm commitment to Abe’s policy of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”
Third, seeking a religious connection with Trump as fellow Protestants, Ishiba praised Trump as “chosen by God” when Trump was shot by a sniper and firmly stood on the stage with his fist raised to the blue sky. It was obvious that Ishiba hoped to establish a personal friendship through explicit flattery.
Fourth, Ishiba carefully prepared for the summit meeting. He rehearsed the meeting with the staff from both the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, so that he could speak to Trump without a written script. He brought the same interpreter that Abe had used in his discussions with Trump. Ishiba also brought maps of the U.S. cities in which Japan has invested to explain Japan’s contribution to U.S. economy.
Whether the meeting was successful or not ultimately depends on how Ishiba is able to follow up. Opposition parties have criticized Ishiba for not raising any concern about Trump’s attacks on the sovereignty of Canada, Greenland, and Panama. Ishiba’s pledge to purchase American LNG may deviate from Japan’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In any case, so long as the LDP is a minority party in the Diet, Ishiba’s diplomatic gains may not translate into long-term better approval ratings.
A postscript: Two days after Ishiba’s visit, Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from all countries, including Japan. Trump also plans to announce reciprocal tariffs later this week although the range of affected imports is unclear. Trump is not aiming the new tariffs at Japan in particular, but at Japan’s steel producers (and other yet unknown manufacturers) will be affected. The history of tariffs under the Trump Administration has yet to be written; it is impossible to predict under what circumstances the tariffs may go up or down. In the meantime, the tariff announcements are sure to temper the public approval gains that Ishiba has been looking for.
February 9, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba did not bungle his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Indeed, he returned with a renewed U.S. commitment to security in the Indo-Pacific region. Although Ishiba was not able to get Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel over the finish line, he did elicit a favorable statement from Trump encouraging possible passive Japanese investment in U.S. Steel. More importantly for Ishiba in domestic politics, the opposition parties gave his diplomacy a positive review. Still, Ishiba returned to Tokyo with a stack of homework.
The U.S.-Japan Joint Statement reaffirmed that Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, which commits U.S. to the defense of Japan, would be applied to the Senkaku Islands. The statement also confirmed the continuity of regional multilateral security frameworks through the QUAD (with Australia and India) and trilateral cooperation arrangements with the Republic of Korea and the Philippines. These arrangements were established or enhanced under former President Joe Biden.
As is now the practice in Washington, U.S. government action comes at a price. The price of the U.S. commitments to Japan is one trillion dollars, although Japan was already on course to pay most of that price. Ishiba pledged in the meeting to raise Japan’s investments in the U.S. from $800 billion to an unprecedented $1 trillion. The statement provides that the two leaders will seek to promote business opportunities and significantly increase bilateral investment and employment.
Ishiba framed Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel, which had been rejected by Biden, not as an acquisition but as an investment. “Investment to U.S. Steel produces goods contributing to the world with Japanese technology. I share a notion with the president that Japan’s investment does not cause unilateral benefit of one of us,” said Ishiba in the joint press conference. Trump did not reverse Biden’s decision, but did open the door, for now, Nippon Steel to have a non-controlling investment.
Assessments of Ishiba’s debut in bilateral diplomacy with Trump were respectable Although most people in Japan were skeptical of Ishiba’s ability to build a close personal relationship with Trump, Ishiba succeeded in avoiding any hard demands from Trump such as higher tariffs on Japanese products or greater defense spending.
“No surprise was the greatest surprise,” said one of the lawmakers in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Ken Saito. A leader of the LDP Upper House members welcomed the outcome of the summit meeting and expected a positive impact on the Upper House elections this summer. Even the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, acknowledged Ishiba’s achievements.
Ishiba’s success, if limited, was the product of at least four factors. First, Ishiba put money in front of Trump. Calculating Japan’s current investment in the U.S at 800 billion dollars, Ishiba offered up a new investment goal of one trillion dollars. Ishiba may also have proposed an investment of $2.7 billion by Nippon Steel directly in U.S. Steel on top of the $14.1 billion purchase price. At least that seemed to the story in Asahi Shimbun, which reported that the CEO of U.S. Steel had made a new proposal in a meeting with Trump on the day before the summit meeting.
Second, Ishiba took advantage of personal connections. For example, to prepare to explain Japan’s investment in the U.S., Ishiba met with his high school classmate, the chairman of Toyota Motor Co., Akio Toyoda. Ishiba also consulted with the founder of SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, who had announced a $100 billion investment in the U.S. Son is an old friend of the foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya, Ishiba’s closest political ally.
Ishiba also relied on the friendship between his former political enemy, Shinzo Abe, and Trump. Ishiba told Trump that “the very close relationship between Japan and the U.S. was built by the president and late prime minister Shinzo Abe.” Ishiba stressed that Japan would continue its firm commitment to Abe’s policy of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”
Third, seeking a religious connection with Trump as fellow Protestants, Ishiba praised Trump as “chosen by God” when Trump was shot by a sniper and firmly stood on the stage with his fist raised to the blue sky. It was obvious that Ishiba hoped to establish a personal friendship through explicit flattery.
Fourth, Ishiba carefully prepared for the summit meeting. He rehearsed the meeting with the staff from both the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, so that he could speak to Trump without a written script. He brought the same interpreter that Abe had used in his discussions with Trump. Ishiba also brought maps of the U.S. cities in which Japan has invested to explain Japan’s contribution to U.S. economy.
Whether the meeting was successful or not ultimately depends on how Ishiba is able to follow up. Opposition parties have criticized Ishiba for not raising any concern about Trump’s attacks on the sovereignty of Canada, Greenland, and Panama. Ishiba’s pledge to purchase American LNG may deviate from Japan’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In any case, so long as the LDP is a minority party in the Diet, Ishiba’s diplomatic gains may not translate into long-term better approval ratings.
A postscript: Two days after Ishiba’s visit, Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from all countries, including Japan. Trump also plans to announce reciprocal tariffs later this week although the range of affected imports is unclear. Trump is not aiming the new tariffs at Japan in particular, but at Japan’s steel producers (and other yet unknown manufacturers) will be affected. The history of tariffs under the Trump Administration has yet to be written; it is impossible to predict under what circumstances the tariffs may go up or down. In the meantime, the tariff announcements are sure to temper the public approval gains that Ishiba has been looking for.
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