Ishiba Close to a Majority in the Diet
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 23, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Japan’s leading coalition in its Diet, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, is close to a deal with the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) to garner support for increasing support for high school tuition. This would give Shigeru Ishiba’s government a Diet majority to revise and pass its FY 2025 budget bill. Ishin’s support marks the first time that the LDP has achieved a majority with support from an opposition party in such a major issue as an annual budget, since it lost its majority in last October’s general election.
The leaders of the LDP, Komeito, and Ishin parties wrapped up a draft to eliminate the annual income cap (now set at 9.1 million yen) on eligibility for a family to receive 118 thousand yen for high school tuition. This provision would take effect in FY 2025. For students attending private high schools, which generally are more expensive than public schools, the government would pay a supplement of up to 457 thousand yen beginning in FY 2026. There would be no income cap on this supplement either.
At the behest of Ishin, the coalition also promised to increase support for scholarships for low-income families and to introduce free lunch in elementary schools beginning in FY 2026. These policies will cost approximately 550 billion yen. The government needs to add 200 billion yen of spendings to the FY 2025 budget. The rest of the 350 billion yen is supposed to be included in the FY 2026 budget. Subject to confirmation from Ishin, the House of Representatives will approve the budget by March 2, the effective deadline for the bill to pass the Diet before FY 2025 starts on April 1.
Getting majority approval in the Diet has been the top priority for the Ishiba administration since LDP’s October election defeat. Its coalition with Komeito looked for another partner to form a majority in the Lower House. Although the first possible partner was the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), their trilateral discussion was gridlocked with quarrels over raising the threshold for imposition of an income tax. The threshold is currently 1.03 million yen in family annual income.
While the LDP, Komeito, and DPP held discussions intermittently since last December, Ishin began separate negotiations with the LDP-Komeito coalition. The main negotiator for Ishin was its co-leader, Seiji Maehara, who joined the party just before last October’s election. Free education has been at the top of Maehara’s personal agenda.
Taking advantage of his personal relationship with Prime Minister Ishiba and LDP policy chief Itsunori Onodera, Maehara reached a deal with the LDP and Komeito. Ishin thus beat the DPP in the race to cooperate with the LDP and Komeito for control of the Diet. Together they will implement policies that will appeal to voters before this summer’s Upper House elections.
Seeming to have secured a majority for the budget bill in the Lower House, Ishiba has managed to avoid his first political crisis. Failure to pass the budget bill by the deadline could have been fatal to his administration. There are some historical examples in which a stalemate over the annual budget bill destroyed a cabinet, as seen in the Noboru Takeshita Cabinet with the Recruit Scandal in 1989 or in Tsutomu Hata’s minority government in 1994. Inability to pass a budget bill might also lead to calls in the leading party to replace the prime minister.
Ishiba still faces protests from the opposition parties on political reform. Although the opposition parties want a prohibition on political donations from private companies and organizations, these groups are the main donors to the LDP. Ishiba accordingly has opposed a complete ban. The LDP has promised to resolve the stand-off by the end of March.
To avoid a no-confidence resolution in the House of Representatives, which would cause political volatility, Ishiba hopes to attract as much support as possible from the opposition parties. His coalition with Komeito continues discussions with the DPP over an income tax break. The LDP-Komeito coalition simultaneously is negotiating with the biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
An administration with a majority in both Houses does not have to discuss policies with the opposition. But the Ishiba administration is more vulnerable than any LDP administration in the past two decades. They must expend considerable time and energy on such discussions.
Tuesday, February 25, 2025
PENTAGON PURGE
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| Lt. Gen. Jennifer Short |
The proposed new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Air Force Lt. Gen. John D. Caine, in contrast, has spent no known time in Asia and has only 100 combat hours. CNN
>Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs: July 2018 - July 2020, Commander, Pacific Air Forces; Air Component Commander for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Executive Director, Pacific Air Combat Operations Staff, Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii; April 2013 - February 2014, Deputy Commander, U.S. Air Forces Central Command; Deputy, Combined Force Air Component Commander, U.S. Central Commansd, Southwest Asia; May 2007 - May 2008, Commander, 8th Fighter Wing, Kunsan AB, South Korea. 130 Combat Hours.
>Adm. Lisa Franchetti, chief of naval operations: commander of United States Naval Forces Korea;; commander Carrier Strike Group 9; commander of Carrier Strike Group 15; commander of Pacific Partnership 2010, embarked on USNS Mercy (T-AH 19).
>Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs: July 2018 - July 2020, Commander, Pacific Air Forces; Air Component Commander for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Executive Director, Pacific Air Combat Operations Staff, Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii; April 2013 - February 2014, Deputy Commander, U.S. Air Forces Central Command; Deputy, Combined Force Air Component Commander, U.S. Central Commansd, Southwest Asia; May 2007 - May 2008, Commander, 8th Fighter Wing, Kunsan AB, South Korea. 130 Combat Hours.
>Adm. Lisa Franchetti, chief of naval operations: commander of United States Naval Forces Korea;; commander Carrier Strike Group 9; commander of Carrier Strike Group 15; commander of Pacific Partnership 2010, embarked on USNS Mercy (T-AH 19).
>Gen. James C. Slife, Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force: August 2015–June 2017, Chief of Staff, U.N. Command and U.S. Forces Korea, Yongsan Garrison, Seoul, South Korea, as a major general; March 2010–June 2011, Commander, 27th SOG, Cannon AFB, N.M. (March 2011–May 2011, Commander, Joint Special Operations Aviation Detachment-Afghanistan).
>Lt. Gen. Jennifer Short. senior military assistant to the secretary of defense: June 2021–June 2023, Deputy Director for Strategic Planning and Policy, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Camp H.M. Smith, Hawaii, as a major general; June 2020–May 2021, Chief of Staff, Headquarters Pacific Air Forces, Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii; June 2019–June 2020, Executive Assistant to the Commander, Pacific Air Forces, Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii. 430 combat hours.
Sunday, February 23, 2025
Asia Policy Events, Monday February 24, 2025
RATING INDIA 2025: KEY OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS. 2/24, 8:00-9:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Richard M. Rossow, Senior Adviser, Chair, India and Emerging Asia Economics; Erin L. Murphy, Deputy Director, Chair, India and Emerging Asia Economics, Senior Fellow, Emerging Asia Economics; Joydeep Mukherji, Managing Director, S&P Global Ratings; Christian de Guzman, Senior Vice President, Moody's Sovereign Ratings.
SOCIAL MEDIA AND POLITICS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA. 2/24, 8:00–9:15am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: New York Southeast Asia Network (NYSEAN). Speaker: author Merlyna Lim, Canada Research Chair in Digital Media and Global Network Society, Professor of Communication and Media Studies, Director of the ALiGN Media Lab, Carleton University. . PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/433gdvA
THE UNITY GOVERNMENT AFTER TWO YEARS: ACHIEVEMENTS, VULNERABILITIES, AND PROSPECTS. 2/24, 9:00–11:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Malaysia Studies Programme at ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute. Speaker: Khairy Jamaluddin, Associate Senior Fellow, ISEAS,Yusof Ishak Institute, fmr. Minister at Malaysia’s ministries of Youth and Sports, Science and Technology, and Health, fmr. Coordinating Minister for the Covid-19 Immunisation Programme.
TRUMP’S RETURN AND THE FATE OF UKRAINE. 2/24, 10:00am-11:45am (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Brookings Institution. Speakers: Fiona Hill, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe; Anastasiia Lapatina, Ukraine Fellow, Lawfare; Tyler McBrien, Managing Editor, Lawfare; Constanze Stelzenmüller, Director, Center on the United States and Europe, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe, Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and Trans-Atlantic Relations.
MANAGING US-SOUTH KOREA RELATIONS UNDER THE SHADOW OF IMPEACHMENT. 2/24, 10:00-11:00am (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Korea Economic Institute (KEI). Speakers: Ahn Ho-young, fmr. Ambassador to the US, ROK; Vincent Brooks, fmr. Commander of UN Command, ROK/US Combined Forces Command, United States Forces Korea; Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Associate Professor, University of Texas Austin.
THREE YEARS OF RUSSIA’S WAR IN UKRAINE: WHAT'S AHEAD IN 2025? 2/24, 10:30-11:30am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Foreign Policy Research Institute. Speakers: Maria Avdeeva, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Program, FPRI; Colonel (ret.) Robert E. Hamilton, Ph.D., Head of Research, Eurasia Program, FPRI; Stefan Meister, Head, Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, German Council of Foreign Relations; Pavel Luzin Ph.D, Author; Maia Otarashvili, Director, Eurasia Program, FPRI.
BEYOND 2025: WHAT'S NEXT FOR CHINA TECH? 2/24, 10:30-11:30am (HKT), 2/23 9:30-10:30pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: South China Morning Post. Speakers: Stephen Chen, News Editor, Science; Ralph Jennings, Senior Correspondent, Political Economy; Jasmine Wang, Editr, Political Economy.
THREE YEARS OF RUSSIA’S WAR IN UKRAINE: WHAT'S AHEAD IN 2025? 2/24, 10:30-11:30am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Foreign Policy Research Institute. Speakers: Maria Avdeeva, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Program, FPRI; Colonel (ret.) Robert E. Hamilton, Ph.D., Head of Research, Eurasia Program, FPRI; Stefan Meister, Head, Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, German Council of Foreign Relations; Pavel Luzin Ph.D, Author; Maia Otarashvili, Director, Eurasia Program, FPRI.
DIGNITY AND DYNAMISM: THE FUTURE OF CONSERVATIVE TECHNOLOGY POLICY. 2/24, 11:10am–2:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: AEI. Speakers: M. Anthony Mills, Director, Center for Technology, Science, and Energy, AEI; Brad Littlejohn, Director of Programs and Education, American Compass; Clare Morell, Fellow, Ethics & Public Policy Center; Leah Libresco Sargeant, Senior Analyst, Niskanen Center; Robert Bellafiore, Managing Director for Policy, Foundation for American Innovation; Katherine Boyle, General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz; Ari Schulman, Editor, The New Atlantis; Christine Rosen, Senior Fellow, AEI; Ryan Streeter, Executive Director, Civitas Institute; Michael Toscano, Executive Director, Institute for Family Studies; Santi Ruiz, Senior Editor, Institute for Progress.
NONPROLIFERATION IN GREAT POWER COMPETITION. 2/24, 11:30am-12:15pm, HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: Yashar Parsie, Contributor, Keystone Defense Initiative; Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, Senior Fellow and Director, Keystone Defense Initiative.
RESURRECTING ENTREPRENEURSHIP TO REVIVE JAPAN. 2/24, 12:45-1:45pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsors: Center on Japanese Economy and Business, Columbia University. Speaker: Richard Katz, Editor, Japan Economy Watch, Special Correspondent, Toyo Keizai Inc.
U.S.-ROK ECONOMIC RELATIONS. 2/24, 3:00–4:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsors: GW Institute for Korean Studies; East Asia National Resource Center; Institute for International Science and Technology Policy. Speakers: Celeste Arrington, Director, GW Institute for Korean Studies; Nick S. Vonortas, Associate Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, Director, GW Institute for International Science and Technology Policy; Yonho Kim, Associate Director, GW Institute for Korean Studies; Gwanhoo Lee, Professor, Chair of the Department of Information Technology and Analytics, American University; Melissa K. Griffith, Lecturer, Johns Hopkins University; Henry Haggard, Senior Advisor, WestExec Advisors.
NASA’S MOON TO MARS ROADMAP: CHARTING THE NEXT YEAR. 2/24, 4:00-5:00pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Clayton Swope, Deputy Director, Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department, CSIS; Amit Kshatriya, Deputy Associate Administrator of the Moon to Mars Program, NASA; John Neal, Executive Director for Space Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce; Thomas Culligan, President, Ascent Public Policy & Strategic Communications.
BOOK TALK: THE HEAT AND THE FURY: ON THE FRONTLINES OF CLIMATE VIOLENCE. 2/24, 5:00-6:30pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service. Speaker: author Peter Schwartzstein, Environmental Journalist, Global Fellow, Environmental Change and Security Program, Wilson Center, TED Fellow, Fellow, Center for Climate and Security. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/434gXk7
US-CHINA COMPETITION: AI, CHIPS AND EXPORT CONTROLS – WHERE TO NEXT? 2/24, 6:00-7:00pm (AEST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: United States Studies Center. Speakers: Kevin J. Wolf, Partner, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, fmr. Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration, Bureau of Industry and Security; Dr. Alan Dupont AO, Founder, CEO, Cognoscenti Group.
Fruitless travels
Ishiba Reports on his U.S. Trip
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 17, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
In remarks to both Houses of the Diet, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba celebrated his first meeting earlier this month with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, DC. The opposition parties could not point to any failures on Ishiba’s part because Trump refrained from making any burdensome demands. However, subsequent developments in Trump’s implementation of his America First agenda have blurred Ishiba’s “achievements.”
In the Diet discussion, Ishiba hailed a “new golden age of the Japan-U.S. alliance” that would lift bilateral ties to a new height in bringing the world peace and prosperity. “I made sure with President Trump that it would be important to cooperate with like-minded countries, such as the framework of Japan-U.S.-Australia-India, Japan-U.S.-Republic of Korea or Japan-U.S.-Philippines,” said Ishiba.
Emphasizing Japan’s policy of fundamentally enhancing its defense capability, Ishiba told lawmakers that Trump had welcomed that effort and that he had expressed the unshakable commitment of the U.S. to the security of Japan. According to Ishiba, this commitment is based on U.S. nuclear power which is interpreted as “extended deterrence.” Ishiba also reconfirmed Trump’s support for the relocation of the U.S. Force in Okinawa, including construction of an alternative facility at Futenma Air Base in Henoko.
On the economy, Ishiba said that he had impressed upon Trump the fact that Japanese companies have been the top set of foreign investors in the U.S. for five consecutive years. Ishiba focused on mutually beneficial activities, including work between Japan and the U.S. on advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors, and Japan’s importation of liquefied natural gas from the U.S.
However, lawmakers have questioned whether Ishiba succeeded in continuing Japan’s economic relationship with the U.S. Shortly after his meeting with Ishiba, Trump announced a plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on imported goods and 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum. One of the CDPJ lawmakers in the Upper House, Tetsuro Fukuyama, asked whether Trump really shared the prime minister’s view of the value of free trade.
Ishiba told the Diet that he would request that the Trump administration drop Japan from the list of countries subject to the new tariffs. He also said that Trump recognized that the deal between Nippon Steel and US Steel was not only an acquisition but also an investment in US Steel to improve its technology.
Developments since the meeting with Trump have run counter to the messages that Ishiba took away. The expected meeting between Trump and the president of Nippon Steel has not yet been set. Although Trump has argued that no one should take a majority stake in US Steel, Nippon Steel still insists on doing so. Another negative development is Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs on cars, Japan’s main export to the U.S., starting on April 2.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, called on NATO countries to raise their defense spending to five percent of GDP, an objective that Trump has long pursued. Along this line, Trump may demand that Japan contribute more to the cost of U.S. security assistance. Still, in the Diet, Ishiba said that Japan would continue its budgeted spending on national at 43 trillion yen for the five years between FY 2023 and FY 2027, regardless of changes in foreign exchange or price inflation.
The public’s overall evaluation of Ishiba’s meeting with Trump has been mildly positive. In the latest poll by Yomiuri Shimbun, 51 percent positively evaluated the meeting, and 38 percent had a negative impression. The approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet is now at 40 percent according to a poll by Asahi Shimbun, marking a 7-point increase from January.
Considering the volatility of U.S. diplomacy in Trump 2.0, Ishiba cannot feel safe, even if he seems to have come through the summit talks with Trump with positive news.
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 17, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
In remarks to both Houses of the Diet, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba celebrated his first meeting earlier this month with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, DC. The opposition parties could not point to any failures on Ishiba’s part because Trump refrained from making any burdensome demands. However, subsequent developments in Trump’s implementation of his America First agenda have blurred Ishiba’s “achievements.”
In the Diet discussion, Ishiba hailed a “new golden age of the Japan-U.S. alliance” that would lift bilateral ties to a new height in bringing the world peace and prosperity. “I made sure with President Trump that it would be important to cooperate with like-minded countries, such as the framework of Japan-U.S.-Australia-India, Japan-U.S.-Republic of Korea or Japan-U.S.-Philippines,” said Ishiba.
Emphasizing Japan’s policy of fundamentally enhancing its defense capability, Ishiba told lawmakers that Trump had welcomed that effort and that he had expressed the unshakable commitment of the U.S. to the security of Japan. According to Ishiba, this commitment is based on U.S. nuclear power which is interpreted as “extended deterrence.” Ishiba also reconfirmed Trump’s support for the relocation of the U.S. Force in Okinawa, including construction of an alternative facility at Futenma Air Base in Henoko.
On the economy, Ishiba said that he had impressed upon Trump the fact that Japanese companies have been the top set of foreign investors in the U.S. for five consecutive years. Ishiba focused on mutually beneficial activities, including work between Japan and the U.S. on advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors, and Japan’s importation of liquefied natural gas from the U.S.
However, lawmakers have questioned whether Ishiba succeeded in continuing Japan’s economic relationship with the U.S. Shortly after his meeting with Ishiba, Trump announced a plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on imported goods and 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum. One of the CDPJ lawmakers in the Upper House, Tetsuro Fukuyama, asked whether Trump really shared the prime minister’s view of the value of free trade.
Ishiba told the Diet that he would request that the Trump administration drop Japan from the list of countries subject to the new tariffs. He also said that Trump recognized that the deal between Nippon Steel and US Steel was not only an acquisition but also an investment in US Steel to improve its technology.
Developments since the meeting with Trump have run counter to the messages that Ishiba took away. The expected meeting between Trump and the president of Nippon Steel has not yet been set. Although Trump has argued that no one should take a majority stake in US Steel, Nippon Steel still insists on doing so. Another negative development is Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs on cars, Japan’s main export to the U.S., starting on April 2.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, called on NATO countries to raise their defense spending to five percent of GDP, an objective that Trump has long pursued. Along this line, Trump may demand that Japan contribute more to the cost of U.S. security assistance. Still, in the Diet, Ishiba said that Japan would continue its budgeted spending on national at 43 trillion yen for the five years between FY 2023 and FY 2027, regardless of changes in foreign exchange or price inflation.
The public’s overall evaluation of Ishiba’s meeting with Trump has been mildly positive. In the latest poll by Yomiuri Shimbun, 51 percent positively evaluated the meeting, and 38 percent had a negative impression. The approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet is now at 40 percent according to a poll by Asahi Shimbun, marking a 7-point increase from January.
Considering the volatility of U.S. diplomacy in Trump 2.0, Ishiba cannot feel safe, even if he seems to have come through the summit talks with Trump with positive news.
Monday, February 17, 2025
Asia Policy Events, Tuesday February 18, 2025
YIZHOU, LIUQIU AND TAIWAN IN HISTORY. 2/18, 10:00-11:30am (CET) 4:00-5:30am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Institute for Security and Development Policy. Speakers: Professor Torbjörn Lodén, fmr. Professor, Chinese Language and Culture, Stockholm University; Man-houng Lin, Research Fellow, Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica, Professor, History, National Taiwan Normal University; Evan Dawley, Associate Professor, History, Goucher College; Agust Börjesson, Acting Head, Stockholm Taiwan Center, Research Fellow, Asia Program, Institute for Security and Development Policy.
UNPACKING THE AI ACTION SUMMIT: THE FUTURE OF AI GOVERNANCE AND THE GLOBAL DIGITAL COMPACT. 2/18, 8:30-9:45am (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Stimson Center. Speakers: Amb.Chola Milambo, Permanent Representative of Zambia to the UN and Co-Facilitator of the Global Digital Compact; Pedro Conceição, Director of the Human Development Report Office, UNDP; Linda Bonyo, Founder, Lawyer’s Hub and Co-Convenor, AI & Cybertech Governance ImPact Coalition; Allison Pytlak, Senior Fellow and Director of the Cyber Program, Stimson Center; Dr. Richard Ponzio, Senior Fellow and Director of the Global Governance, Justice & Security Program, Stimson Center and Co-Convenor, AI & Cybertech Governance ImPact Coalition.
HOW NORTH KOREA MANAGED THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. 2/18, 9:00-10:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: National Committee on North Korea. Speaker: Yoonhee Ryder, ENT Resident, University of Michigan Researcher, Korea Health Policy Project; Martyn Williams, Senior Fellow, 38 North, Stimson Center.
BOOK LAUNCH: KING DOLLAR WITH PAUL BLUSTEIN. 1/18, 9:30-10:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speaker: author Paul Blustein, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, CSIS. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/40VUSl0
THINK TANK FUNDING IN AMERICA. 2/18, Noon–1:00pm (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Speakers: Estefanía Terán Valdez, Director, On Think Tanks; Michael Hartmann, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Strategic Giving, Capital Research Center; Benoît Pelopidas, Founder, Nuclear Knowledges; Nick Cleveland-Stout, Junior Research Fellow, Quincy Institute.
IN CONVERSATION WITH PHILIPPINE SECRETARY FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, ENRIQUE A. MANALO. 2/18, Noon–1:00pm (EST), 5:00-6:00pm (BST). HYBRID. Sponsor: Chatham House. Speaker: Enrique A. Manalo, Philippine Secretary for Foreign Affairs; Ben Bland, Director, Asia-Pacific Programme.
PRESERVING AND ENHANCING OPEN FINANCIAL MARKETS: A CONVERSATION WITH ANDREW BAILEY. 2/18, 10:30–11:15am (CET), 4:30–5:15am (EST). HYBRID. Sponsor: Bruegel. Speakers: Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England; Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director, Bruegel.
BOOK TALK: JAPAN RE-EMERGES. 2/18, 4:00-5:00pm (PST) 7:00-9:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. Speakers: author Ulrike Schaede, Professor of Japanese Business, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy; Brad Glosserman, Senior Advisor, Pacific Forum, Deputy Director and Visiting Professor, Center for Rule-making Strategies. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/419OGHl
A GLOBAL RX: HOW EVERY COUNTRY CAN HALVE PREMATURE DEATH BY 2050. 2/18, 7:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Duke University. Speaker: Dr. Gavin Yamey, Professor, Global Health, Public Policy, Duke.
THE IREICHŌ: DAY OF REMEMBRANCE. 2/18, 6:30-7:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: National Archives Foundation. Speakers: Dr. Colleen Shogan, National Archives; Dr. Anthea Hartig, Smithsonian's National Museum of American History; Duncan Ryuken Williams, Irei Project, USC Professor; Shirley Higuchi, Heart Mountain Wyoming Foundation; Ann Burroughs, Japanese American National Museum.
Wednesday, February 12, 2025
Ishiba meet Trumps
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun. The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 9, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba did not bungle his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Indeed, he returned with a renewed U.S. commitment to security in the Indo-Pacific region. Although Ishiba was not able to get Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel over the finish line, he did elicit a favorable statement from Trump encouraging possible passive Japanese investment in U.S. Steel. More importantly for Ishiba in domestic politics, the opposition parties gave his diplomacy a positive review. Still, Ishiba returned to Tokyo with a stack of homework.
The U.S.-Japan Joint Statement reaffirmed that Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, which commits U.S. to the defense of Japan, would be applied to the Senkaku Islands. The statement also confirmed the continuity of regional multilateral security frameworks through the QUAD (with Australia and India) and trilateral cooperation arrangements with the Republic of Korea and the Philippines. These arrangements were established or enhanced under former President Joe Biden.
As is now the practice in Washington, U.S. government action comes at a price. The price of the U.S. commitments to Japan is one trillion dollars, although Japan was already on course to pay most of that price. Ishiba pledged in the meeting to raise Japan’s investments in the U.S. from $800 billion to an unprecedented $1 trillion. The statement provides that the two leaders will seek to promote business opportunities and significantly increase bilateral investment and employment.
Ishiba framed Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel, which had been rejected by Biden, not as an acquisition but as an investment. “Investment to U.S. Steel produces goods contributing to the world with Japanese technology. I share a notion with the president that Japan’s investment does not cause unilateral benefit of one of us,” said Ishiba in the joint press conference. Trump did not reverse Biden’s decision, but did open the door, for now, Nippon Steel to have a non-controlling investment.
Assessments of Ishiba’s debut in bilateral diplomacy with Trump were respectable Although most people in Japan were skeptical of Ishiba’s ability to build a close personal relationship with Trump, Ishiba succeeded in avoiding any hard demands from Trump such as higher tariffs on Japanese products or greater defense spending.
“No surprise was the greatest surprise,” said one of the lawmakers in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Ken Saito. A leader of the LDP Upper House members welcomed the outcome of the summit meeting and expected a positive impact on the Upper House elections this summer. Even the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, acknowledged Ishiba’s achievements.
Ishiba’s success, if limited, was the product of at least four factors. First, Ishiba put money in front of Trump. Calculating Japan’s current investment in the U.S at 800 billion dollars, Ishiba offered up a new investment goal of one trillion dollars. Ishiba may also have proposed an investment of $2.7 billion by Nippon Steel directly in U.S. Steel on top of the $14.1 billion purchase price. At least that seemed to the story in Asahi Shimbun, which reported that the CEO of U.S. Steel had made a new proposal in a meeting with Trump on the day before the summit meeting.
Second, Ishiba took advantage of personal connections. For example, to prepare to explain Japan’s investment in the U.S., Ishiba met with his high school classmate, the chairman of Toyota Motor Co., Akio Toyoda. Ishiba also consulted with the founder of SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, who had announced a $100 billion investment in the U.S. Son is an old friend of the foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya, Ishiba’s closest political ally.
Ishiba also relied on the friendship between his former political enemy, Shinzo Abe, and Trump. Ishiba told Trump that “the very close relationship between Japan and the U.S. was built by the president and late prime minister Shinzo Abe.” Ishiba stressed that Japan would continue its firm commitment to Abe’s policy of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”
Third, seeking a religious connection with Trump as fellow Protestants, Ishiba praised Trump as “chosen by God” when Trump was shot by a sniper and firmly stood on the stage with his fist raised to the blue sky. It was obvious that Ishiba hoped to establish a personal friendship through explicit flattery.
Fourth, Ishiba carefully prepared for the summit meeting. He rehearsed the meeting with the staff from both the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, so that he could speak to Trump without a written script. He brought the same interpreter that Abe had used in his discussions with Trump. Ishiba also brought maps of the U.S. cities in which Japan has invested to explain Japan’s contribution to U.S. economy.
Whether the meeting was successful or not ultimately depends on how Ishiba is able to follow up. Opposition parties have criticized Ishiba for not raising any concern about Trump’s attacks on the sovereignty of Canada, Greenland, and Panama. Ishiba’s pledge to purchase American LNG may deviate from Japan’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In any case, so long as the LDP is a minority party in the Diet, Ishiba’s diplomatic gains may not translate into long-term better approval ratings.
A postscript: Two days after Ishiba’s visit, Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from all countries, including Japan. Trump also plans to announce reciprocal tariffs later this week although the range of affected imports is unclear. Trump is not aiming the new tariffs at Japan in particular, but at Japan’s steel producers (and other yet unknown manufacturers) will be affected. The history of tariffs under the Trump Administration has yet to be written; it is impossible to predict under what circumstances the tariffs may go up or down. In the meantime, the tariff announcements are sure to temper the public approval gains that Ishiba has been looking for.
February 9, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba did not bungle his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Indeed, he returned with a renewed U.S. commitment to security in the Indo-Pacific region. Although Ishiba was not able to get Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel over the finish line, he did elicit a favorable statement from Trump encouraging possible passive Japanese investment in U.S. Steel. More importantly for Ishiba in domestic politics, the opposition parties gave his diplomacy a positive review. Still, Ishiba returned to Tokyo with a stack of homework.
The U.S.-Japan Joint Statement reaffirmed that Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, which commits U.S. to the defense of Japan, would be applied to the Senkaku Islands. The statement also confirmed the continuity of regional multilateral security frameworks through the QUAD (with Australia and India) and trilateral cooperation arrangements with the Republic of Korea and the Philippines. These arrangements were established or enhanced under former President Joe Biden.
As is now the practice in Washington, U.S. government action comes at a price. The price of the U.S. commitments to Japan is one trillion dollars, although Japan was already on course to pay most of that price. Ishiba pledged in the meeting to raise Japan’s investments in the U.S. from $800 billion to an unprecedented $1 trillion. The statement provides that the two leaders will seek to promote business opportunities and significantly increase bilateral investment and employment.
Ishiba framed Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel, which had been rejected by Biden, not as an acquisition but as an investment. “Investment to U.S. Steel produces goods contributing to the world with Japanese technology. I share a notion with the president that Japan’s investment does not cause unilateral benefit of one of us,” said Ishiba in the joint press conference. Trump did not reverse Biden’s decision, but did open the door, for now, Nippon Steel to have a non-controlling investment.
Assessments of Ishiba’s debut in bilateral diplomacy with Trump were respectable Although most people in Japan were skeptical of Ishiba’s ability to build a close personal relationship with Trump, Ishiba succeeded in avoiding any hard demands from Trump such as higher tariffs on Japanese products or greater defense spending.
“No surprise was the greatest surprise,” said one of the lawmakers in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Ken Saito. A leader of the LDP Upper House members welcomed the outcome of the summit meeting and expected a positive impact on the Upper House elections this summer. Even the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, acknowledged Ishiba’s achievements.
Ishiba’s success, if limited, was the product of at least four factors. First, Ishiba put money in front of Trump. Calculating Japan’s current investment in the U.S at 800 billion dollars, Ishiba offered up a new investment goal of one trillion dollars. Ishiba may also have proposed an investment of $2.7 billion by Nippon Steel directly in U.S. Steel on top of the $14.1 billion purchase price. At least that seemed to the story in Asahi Shimbun, which reported that the CEO of U.S. Steel had made a new proposal in a meeting with Trump on the day before the summit meeting.
Second, Ishiba took advantage of personal connections. For example, to prepare to explain Japan’s investment in the U.S., Ishiba met with his high school classmate, the chairman of Toyota Motor Co., Akio Toyoda. Ishiba also consulted with the founder of SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, who had announced a $100 billion investment in the U.S. Son is an old friend of the foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya, Ishiba’s closest political ally.
Ishiba also relied on the friendship between his former political enemy, Shinzo Abe, and Trump. Ishiba told Trump that “the very close relationship between Japan and the U.S. was built by the president and late prime minister Shinzo Abe.” Ishiba stressed that Japan would continue its firm commitment to Abe’s policy of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”
Third, seeking a religious connection with Trump as fellow Protestants, Ishiba praised Trump as “chosen by God” when Trump was shot by a sniper and firmly stood on the stage with his fist raised to the blue sky. It was obvious that Ishiba hoped to establish a personal friendship through explicit flattery.
Fourth, Ishiba carefully prepared for the summit meeting. He rehearsed the meeting with the staff from both the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, so that he could speak to Trump without a written script. He brought the same interpreter that Abe had used in his discussions with Trump. Ishiba also brought maps of the U.S. cities in which Japan has invested to explain Japan’s contribution to U.S. economy.
Whether the meeting was successful or not ultimately depends on how Ishiba is able to follow up. Opposition parties have criticized Ishiba for not raising any concern about Trump’s attacks on the sovereignty of Canada, Greenland, and Panama. Ishiba’s pledge to purchase American LNG may deviate from Japan’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In any case, so long as the LDP is a minority party in the Diet, Ishiba’s diplomatic gains may not translate into long-term better approval ratings.
A postscript: Two days after Ishiba’s visit, Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from all countries, including Japan. Trump also plans to announce reciprocal tariffs later this week although the range of affected imports is unclear. Trump is not aiming the new tariffs at Japan in particular, but at Japan’s steel producers (and other yet unknown manufacturers) will be affected. The history of tariffs under the Trump Administration has yet to be written; it is impossible to predict under what circumstances the tariffs may go up or down. In the meantime, the tariff announcements are sure to temper the public approval gains that Ishiba has been looking for.
Sunday, February 9, 2025
Asia Policy Monday Events, February 10, 2025
MARRIAGE EQUALITY IN JAPAN: LGBT COUPLES ON THE VERGE OF FULL(ER) EQUALITY? 2/10, 6:30-8:00pm (JST); 4:30-6:00am (EST). HYBRID. Sponsor: ICAS, Temple University Japan. Speakers: Makiko Terahara, Director, Marriage For All Japan; Robert Dujarric, Co-director, ICAS, Temple University, Japan Campus.
THE U.S.-INDIA PARTNERSHIP UNDER TRUMP 2.0. 2/10, 3:00-6:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Observer Research Foundation America. Speakers: Lindsey Ford, former Senior Director for South Asia, National Security Council; Sameer Lalwani, Senior Expert on South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace; Walter Russell Mead, Distinguished Fellow, The Hudson Institute; Amy Hariani, Senior Advisor, U.S.-India Business Council; Richard Rossow, Senior Advisor and Chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics, Center for Strategic & International Studies; Anand Shah, Partner, The Asia Group.
BOOK TALK: BOOK AND DAGGER: HOW SCHOLARS AND LIBRARIANS BECAME THE UNLIKELY SPIES OF WORLD WAR II. 2/10, 4:00pm–5:30pm (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speaker: author Elyse Graham, Historian, Professor, Stony Brook University. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3WOADod
Friday, February 7, 2025
Who is Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba
Office of the Prime Minister
68 (February 4, 1957)
12 terms in House of Representatives [Lower House] (Tottori 1), Hereditary, LDP.
Past Positions: Minister for Regional Revitalization (Abe Cabinet). Minister of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries (Aso Cabinet), Minister of Defense (Fukuda Cabinet), Director General of
Defense Agency (Minister of State, Koizumi Cabinet), LDP Secretary General (Abe
administration), Chairperson of LDP Policy Research Council (under LDP President Sadakazu
Tanigaki).
His LDP presidential campaign slogans were: “Protecting Japan” and “Protecting the people.” In
an exclusive September 25, 2024 article for the Hudson Institute, Ishiba said that his
administration “aims to contribute to regional security by strengthening the Japan-US alliance as
an “equal nation” on par with the US-UK alliance....It is my mission to raise the Japan-US
alliance to the level of the US-UK alliance.”
Keio University (1979). Ranked first in the All-Japan Legal Studies Student League in his
second year.
Worked for Mitsui Bank (currently Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation) until 1983.
Protégé of Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka and worked for the “Shadow Shogun’s” faction until
68 (February 4, 1957)
12 terms in House of Representatives [Lower House] (Tottori 1), Hereditary, LDP.
Past Positions: Minister for Regional Revitalization (Abe Cabinet). Minister of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries (Aso Cabinet), Minister of Defense (Fukuda Cabinet), Director General of
Defense Agency (Minister of State, Koizumi Cabinet), LDP Secretary General (Abe
administration), Chairperson of LDP Policy Research Council (under LDP President Sadakazu
Tanigaki).
His LDP presidential campaign slogans were: “Protecting Japan” and “Protecting the people.” In
an exclusive September 25, 2024 article for the Hudson Institute, Ishiba said that his
administration “aims to contribute to regional security by strengthening the Japan-US alliance as
an “equal nation” on par with the US-UK alliance....It is my mission to raise the Japan-US
alliance to the level of the US-UK alliance.”
Keio University (1979). Ranked first in the All-Japan Legal Studies Student League in his
second year.
Worked for Mitsui Bank (currently Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation) until 1983.
Protégé of Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka and worked for the “Shadow Shogun’s” faction until
he ran for the Diet in 1986.
In 2014, he turned down Prime Minister Abe’s offer to be Minister in charge of Security
Legislation, which irritated Abe as it suggested that he did not support Abe’s defense policies.
Ishiba’s subsequent criticism of the Prime Minister isolated him within the Abe-dominated LDP,
causing Ishiba’s faction to shrink. He was an outspoken opponent of many of Abe’s policies.
He calls himself a military otaku (obsessive person) who likes making plastic models of fighter
planes and warships and is also a “railway geek.”
In 2018 at a visit to the Kurayoshi Circular Theater Figure Museum (Kurayoshi, Tottori
Prefecture), he was asked to wear a Majin Buu [魔ま人じんブウ Majin Bū, literally Demon
Person Boo] cosplay costume. And he did, to the surprise of the museum curator who said “We
asked him to wear the costume in a semi-surprise way, but he accepted with a smile. He has a
soft side.”
Protestant, United Church of Christ. Sunday school teacher.
However, Ishiba is a member of the Jokokai, an association of 64 Diet members who are believers in the Jodo sect of Buddhism and he is recommended by the Jodo sect during elections.
Like many LDP Diet members, he is also a member of the Shinto Political League Diet Members' Conference (a nativist, animist Japanese belief). On August 24,2024, after visiting Watari Shrine in Yazu Town, Tottori Prefecture, he announced his candidacy for the LDP presidency in front of the shrine building, saying the following: "This is the land of my ancestors. When I was a child, we had summer festivals here. It was really lively. Children and the elderly were all smiling. Now there are no people here and the summer festivals are no longer held, but I want to bring back a lively Japan where everyone can live with a smile."
Well-known cat lover and whisperer. 🐈
Conservative Nationalist Parliamentary Leagues: Nippon Kaigi [Japan Conference], Shinto, Yasukuni, Unification Church connections.
>Foreign Policy adviser: Takashi Kawakami [川上高司], who advocates for the creation of an Asian version of NATO, is supported by Happy Science and was a faculty member at Happy Science University. (Happy Science is a Japanese "new religion" that is influential in the U.S. MAGA circles. It is a major funder of CPAC and client of Matt Schlapp. President Trump has spoken at their events and praised them.) Kawakami teaches at Takushoku University, a conservative stronghold. In 2022, he founded the Japan Society for Foreign Policy Studies.
Social Media
Official Site: https://www.ishiba.com/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ishibashigeru/
Twitter: https://x.com/shigeruishiba
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ishibashigeru/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ishibach
In 2014, he turned down Prime Minister Abe’s offer to be Minister in charge of Security
Legislation, which irritated Abe as it suggested that he did not support Abe’s defense policies.
Ishiba’s subsequent criticism of the Prime Minister isolated him within the Abe-dominated LDP,
causing Ishiba’s faction to shrink. He was an outspoken opponent of many of Abe’s policies.
He calls himself a military otaku (obsessive person) who likes making plastic models of fighter
planes and warships and is also a “railway geek.”
In 2018 at a visit to the Kurayoshi Circular Theater Figure Museum (Kurayoshi, Tottori
Prefecture), he was asked to wear a Majin Buu [魔ま人じんブウ Majin Bū, literally Demon
Person Boo] cosplay costume. And he did, to the surprise of the museum curator who said “We
asked him to wear the costume in a semi-surprise way, but he accepted with a smile. He has a
soft side.”
Protestant, United Church of Christ. Sunday school teacher.
However, Ishiba is a member of the Jokokai, an association of 64 Diet members who are believers in the Jodo sect of Buddhism and he is recommended by the Jodo sect during elections.
Like many LDP Diet members, he is also a member of the Shinto Political League Diet Members' Conference (a nativist, animist Japanese belief). On August 24,2024, after visiting Watari Shrine in Yazu Town, Tottori Prefecture, he announced his candidacy for the LDP presidency in front of the shrine building, saying the following: "This is the land of my ancestors. When I was a child, we had summer festivals here. It was really lively. Children and the elderly were all smiling. Now there are no people here and the summer festivals are no longer held, but I want to bring back a lively Japan where everyone can live with a smile."
Well-known cat lover and whisperer. 🐈
Conservative Nationalist Parliamentary Leagues: Nippon Kaigi [Japan Conference], Shinto, Yasukuni, Unification Church connections.
>Foreign Policy adviser: Takashi Kawakami [川上高司], who advocates for the creation of an Asian version of NATO, is supported by Happy Science and was a faculty member at Happy Science University. (Happy Science is a Japanese "new religion" that is influential in the U.S. MAGA circles. It is a major funder of CPAC and client of Matt Schlapp. President Trump has spoken at their events and praised them.) Kawakami teaches at Takushoku University, a conservative stronghold. In 2022, he founded the Japan Society for Foreign Policy Studies.
Social Media
Official Site: https://www.ishiba.com/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ishibashigeru/
Twitter: https://x.com/shigeruishiba
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ishibashigeru/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ishibach
Thursday, February 6, 2025
The stress of the minority party
Resolving Domestic Instability with International Diplomacy
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 3, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Because the LDP is a minority party in Japan’s House of Representatives, Shigeru Ishiba’s administration lacks a free hand in Diet procedures. Rare phenomena, in which the opposition parties take the initiative, have now occurred in the discussion over FY 2025 budget bill. Ishiba hopes to reverse this negative trend by building close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump in a summit meeting in Washington, DC scheduled for February 7. Given recent dramatic changes in U.S. foreign policy generally, it is impossible to predict the outcome of that meeting.
In the meantime, it is likely that the Ishiba administration will revise the pending budget bill, which was originally submitted to the Diet in January. The revisions may include requests from the opposition parties. Ishiba has not ruled it out. “I do not exclude any possibility to accept proposals from a party, if it offers voting for our budget bill with condition of reviewing a part of the budget,” said Ishiba in an interview with the weekly magazine, Sunday Mainichi.
The opposition parties have some proposals that have been part of their platforms for several months. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) wants to raise threshold for imposing income tax to annual income of ¥1.78 million. The cost of this relief is estimated at 7 to 8 trillion yen. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) calls for free tuition in every high school, which would cost of 600 billion yen. On the other side, the leading opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), proposes cutting 7 trillion yen from the budget. Yet the CDPJ also seeks cuts in the gasoline tax cut, free school lunch, and better treatment for nursery workers.
Ishiba needs to consider which requests he will honor, but revisions to the budget bill will be necessary in any case. It has been over 30 years since the government has withdrawn a budget bill and resubmitted a revised one. In 1991, revisions were necessary to enable Japan to make a financial contribution to support multinational forces in the Gulf War.
In addition to forcing revisions to the budget bill, the DCPJ has kept the slush fund scandal in the news. At the behest of Chairman Jun Azumi, a leader of the CDPJ, the Committee for the Budget in the Lower House voted to require the former accounting manager of the Abe faction to appear at a hearing on the scandal. (He has refused.) Although this kind of hearing typically is set by the Committee’s unanimous approval, Azumi made a point of taking a vote for the first time in 51 years. Azumi also introduced a new system of intensive discussion on the budget in which specific questions are posed to each ministry.
These surges of the opposition power may further erode public confidence on leadership of Ishiba. It is good news for Ishiba that he has an opportunity to meet with Trump, an opportunity much longed for on Ishiba’s part.
“We will talk about how to align the national interests of both countries to bring Japan-US alliance to greater heights,” said Ishiba in the discussions of the Lower House budget committee. Ishiba hopes to reaffirm in the meeting the importance of the rule of law based on the concept of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.
Ishiba also hopes that the U.S. will reaffirm its commitment to Article 5 of Japan-U.S. Security Treaty which guarantees that the U.S. will defend Japan, including Senkaku Islands. Ordinarily, the U.S. would reaffirm this commitment as a matter of course, but it is now not a certainty. A failure to do so would have ramifications across all of Asia and the Pacific, not just in Japan.
In any event, economic issues seem to be the priority in the U.S. with Trump’s imposition of new tariffs on products from Canada, China, and Mexico – although these seem to be a moving target. Trump later agreed to a 30-day pause on imposing tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Stressing Japan’s growing investment in the U.S. or the purchase of LNG gas from the U.S., Ishiba will try to stay clear of any new and onerous tariffs on Japanese goods.
The opposition parties in Japan demand that Ishiba to talk to Trump about his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization, as well as his denial of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel. Ishiba, however, is unlikely to make any progress on any of these issues. Ishiba’s highest priority at the summit will be to pave the way for a frank, personal relationship.
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 3, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
Because the LDP is a minority party in Japan’s House of Representatives, Shigeru Ishiba’s administration lacks a free hand in Diet procedures. Rare phenomena, in which the opposition parties take the initiative, have now occurred in the discussion over FY 2025 budget bill. Ishiba hopes to reverse this negative trend by building close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump in a summit meeting in Washington, DC scheduled for February 7. Given recent dramatic changes in U.S. foreign policy generally, it is impossible to predict the outcome of that meeting.
In the meantime, it is likely that the Ishiba administration will revise the pending budget bill, which was originally submitted to the Diet in January. The revisions may include requests from the opposition parties. Ishiba has not ruled it out. “I do not exclude any possibility to accept proposals from a party, if it offers voting for our budget bill with condition of reviewing a part of the budget,” said Ishiba in an interview with the weekly magazine, Sunday Mainichi.
The opposition parties have some proposals that have been part of their platforms for several months. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) wants to raise threshold for imposing income tax to annual income of ¥1.78 million. The cost of this relief is estimated at 7 to 8 trillion yen. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) calls for free tuition in every high school, which would cost of 600 billion yen. On the other side, the leading opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), proposes cutting 7 trillion yen from the budget. Yet the CDPJ also seeks cuts in the gasoline tax cut, free school lunch, and better treatment for nursery workers.
Ishiba needs to consider which requests he will honor, but revisions to the budget bill will be necessary in any case. It has been over 30 years since the government has withdrawn a budget bill and resubmitted a revised one. In 1991, revisions were necessary to enable Japan to make a financial contribution to support multinational forces in the Gulf War.
In addition to forcing revisions to the budget bill, the DCPJ has kept the slush fund scandal in the news. At the behest of Chairman Jun Azumi, a leader of the CDPJ, the Committee for the Budget in the Lower House voted to require the former accounting manager of the Abe faction to appear at a hearing on the scandal. (He has refused.) Although this kind of hearing typically is set by the Committee’s unanimous approval, Azumi made a point of taking a vote for the first time in 51 years. Azumi also introduced a new system of intensive discussion on the budget in which specific questions are posed to each ministry.
These surges of the opposition power may further erode public confidence on leadership of Ishiba. It is good news for Ishiba that he has an opportunity to meet with Trump, an opportunity much longed for on Ishiba’s part.
“We will talk about how to align the national interests of both countries to bring Japan-US alliance to greater heights,” said Ishiba in the discussions of the Lower House budget committee. Ishiba hopes to reaffirm in the meeting the importance of the rule of law based on the concept of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.
Ishiba also hopes that the U.S. will reaffirm its commitment to Article 5 of Japan-U.S. Security Treaty which guarantees that the U.S. will defend Japan, including Senkaku Islands. Ordinarily, the U.S. would reaffirm this commitment as a matter of course, but it is now not a certainty. A failure to do so would have ramifications across all of Asia and the Pacific, not just in Japan.
In any event, economic issues seem to be the priority in the U.S. with Trump’s imposition of new tariffs on products from Canada, China, and Mexico – although these seem to be a moving target. Trump later agreed to a 30-day pause on imposing tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Stressing Japan’s growing investment in the U.S. or the purchase of LNG gas from the U.S., Ishiba will try to stay clear of any new and onerous tariffs on Japanese goods.
The opposition parties in Japan demand that Ishiba to talk to Trump about his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization, as well as his denial of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel. Ishiba, however, is unlikely to make any progress on any of these issues. Ishiba’s highest priority at the summit will be to pave the way for a frank, personal relationship.
Monday, February 3, 2025
No ordinary Diet
The Ordinary Session of the Diet Starts
In his policy speech, Ishiba proposed a new residential registration system in which urban residents register with a local government to create greater connections to rural communities. He will encourage young men and women in any age return to their hometowns by creating job opportunities there. Coordination among industries, public offices and educational institutes will be essential to this revitalization program.
The other policies in the speech were ones that Ishiba had already proposed or that previous administrations had pursued. As part of his economic policies, Ishiba will propose wage hikes at a higher level than increases in consumer prices and tax exemptions for small amount of personal asset management, including such financial products as NISA or iDeco. Both of these were the brainchildren of the Fumio Kishida administration.
Ishiba’s security policy reflects his concern for better treatment of personnel in the Self-Defense Forces. “We will enhance our defense system, aiming at deterring invasion to our country by possessing independent capability for deny and remove the invasion,” said Ishiba in his policy speech. Ishiba also hopes to lighten the burden on Okinawa of hosting US Forces. Ishiba plans to raise defense issues with US President Donald Trump at their summit meeting.
As to the reform of a system that enabled the slush fund scandal of some factions in the LDP, Ishiba urged all the parties in the Diet to discuss public financial support for political activities, donations from companies, and candidate expenditures – but he did not present his own proposals.
The current ordinary session will be followed by the election of the Upper House, which takes place once every three years. Upper House members have six-year terms, so half of the house will be up for reelection. There is a tacit agreement among lawmakers that the ordinary session in a year of an Upper House election will not be extended. It is likely that the session will close on June 22 and the Upper House election will be held on July 20.
Ishiba is under considerable time pressure to corral enough votes in the Lower House, through negotiation with the opposition parties, to pass the FY 2025 budget bill by March 2, which is the deadline for the bill to automatically pass the Upper House before the new fiscal year begins on April 1. The Constitution of Japan says that a budget is approved as decided by the Lower House, when the Upper House fails in taking final action within 30 days from receiving of it.
According to an agreement among parties, Ishiba also must bring the issue of political contributions by companies and organizations to a conclusion by the end of March. If he fails to do so, the opposition parties will have cause to submit a no-confidence resolution to the Lower House at the end of the session. Such a resolution can ignite a snap election of the Lower House on the same day of the Upper House election.
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 27, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
The 2025 ordinary session of the Diet began January 24. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivered the annual policy speech, in which he emphasized government decentralization – the transfer of power from Tokyo to local communities. Regional revitalization looks to be the highest priority in the Ishiba administration, surpassing diplomacy, the economy, and political reform. The 150-day session of the Diet, after which the Upper House election is scheduled, will be a stern test for Ishiba.
In the traditional policy speech to open an ordinary session of the Diet, the prime minister discusses the political direction of the administration for the year ahead. The nature of the speech is different from that of an opening speech in an extraordinary session. That speech deals with the temporary priority of policies. Thus, in the speech to the extraordinary session last November, Ishiba addressed three policies on his agenda -- diplomacy and security, the revitalization of Japan, and disaster prevention.
But in his January 24 speech, Ishiba focused instead on regional revitalization, devoting 30% of the speech to it. Ishiba has named his project for regional revitalization “Reiwa version of remodeling the Japanese archipelago” and its goal is to achieve a “pleasant Japan.” He had described this vision earlier in his first press conference of the year on January 6.
“Remodeling the Japanese archipelago” is a concept that originated in the Showa era, which was former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka’s campaign policy for the LDP presidential election in June 1972. Tanaka was – not coincidentally -- the political mentor of Ishiba. The novelist Taichi Sakaiya promoted “pleasant Japan” in his book Japan in the Third Time (2019), following “strong Japan” and “prosperous Japan.” Sakaiya served for Keizo Obuchi Cabinet as the Minister in charge of the Economic Planning Agency between 1998 and 2000.
Obuchi was one of “the seven secretaries” in the former Noboru Takeshita faction. Takeshita succeeded to the great political power that Tanaka built. Ishiba can be said to follow in the footsteps of the Tanaka group’s efforts to decentralize the governance of Japan. This approach is the opposite of the goal of greater centralization embraced by another political stream in the Liberal Democratic Party that included such prime ministers as Jun-ichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe.
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 27, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
The 2025 ordinary session of the Diet began January 24. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivered the annual policy speech, in which he emphasized government decentralization – the transfer of power from Tokyo to local communities. Regional revitalization looks to be the highest priority in the Ishiba administration, surpassing diplomacy, the economy, and political reform. The 150-day session of the Diet, after which the Upper House election is scheduled, will be a stern test for Ishiba.
In the traditional policy speech to open an ordinary session of the Diet, the prime minister discusses the political direction of the administration for the year ahead. The nature of the speech is different from that of an opening speech in an extraordinary session. That speech deals with the temporary priority of policies. Thus, in the speech to the extraordinary session last November, Ishiba addressed three policies on his agenda -- diplomacy and security, the revitalization of Japan, and disaster prevention.
But in his January 24 speech, Ishiba focused instead on regional revitalization, devoting 30% of the speech to it. Ishiba has named his project for regional revitalization “Reiwa version of remodeling the Japanese archipelago” and its goal is to achieve a “pleasant Japan.” He had described this vision earlier in his first press conference of the year on January 6.
“Remodeling the Japanese archipelago” is a concept that originated in the Showa era, which was former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka’s campaign policy for the LDP presidential election in June 1972. Tanaka was – not coincidentally -- the political mentor of Ishiba. The novelist Taichi Sakaiya promoted “pleasant Japan” in his book Japan in the Third Time (2019), following “strong Japan” and “prosperous Japan.” Sakaiya served for Keizo Obuchi Cabinet as the Minister in charge of the Economic Planning Agency between 1998 and 2000.
Obuchi was one of “the seven secretaries” in the former Noboru Takeshita faction. Takeshita succeeded to the great political power that Tanaka built. Ishiba can be said to follow in the footsteps of the Tanaka group’s efforts to decentralize the governance of Japan. This approach is the opposite of the goal of greater centralization embraced by another political stream in the Liberal Democratic Party that included such prime ministers as Jun-ichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe.
In his policy speech, Ishiba proposed a new residential registration system in which urban residents register with a local government to create greater connections to rural communities. He will encourage young men and women in any age return to their hometowns by creating job opportunities there. Coordination among industries, public offices and educational institutes will be essential to this revitalization program.
The other policies in the speech were ones that Ishiba had already proposed or that previous administrations had pursued. As part of his economic policies, Ishiba will propose wage hikes at a higher level than increases in consumer prices and tax exemptions for small amount of personal asset management, including such financial products as NISA or iDeco. Both of these were the brainchildren of the Fumio Kishida administration.
Ishiba’s security policy reflects his concern for better treatment of personnel in the Self-Defense Forces. “We will enhance our defense system, aiming at deterring invasion to our country by possessing independent capability for deny and remove the invasion,” said Ishiba in his policy speech. Ishiba also hopes to lighten the burden on Okinawa of hosting US Forces. Ishiba plans to raise defense issues with US President Donald Trump at their summit meeting.
As to the reform of a system that enabled the slush fund scandal of some factions in the LDP, Ishiba urged all the parties in the Diet to discuss public financial support for political activities, donations from companies, and candidate expenditures – but he did not present his own proposals.
The current ordinary session will be followed by the election of the Upper House, which takes place once every three years. Upper House members have six-year terms, so half of the house will be up for reelection. There is a tacit agreement among lawmakers that the ordinary session in a year of an Upper House election will not be extended. It is likely that the session will close on June 22 and the Upper House election will be held on July 20.
Ishiba is under considerable time pressure to corral enough votes in the Lower House, through negotiation with the opposition parties, to pass the FY 2025 budget bill by March 2, which is the deadline for the bill to automatically pass the Upper House before the new fiscal year begins on April 1. The Constitution of Japan says that a budget is approved as decided by the Lower House, when the Upper House fails in taking final action within 30 days from receiving of it.
According to an agreement among parties, Ishiba also must bring the issue of political contributions by companies and organizations to a conclusion by the end of March. If he fails to do so, the opposition parties will have cause to submit a no-confidence resolution to the Lower House at the end of the session. Such a resolution can ignite a snap election of the Lower House on the same day of the Upper House election.
Asia Policy Events Monday, February 3, 2025
THE STATE OF THE NATION PROJECT: A COMPREHENSIVE DISCUSSION ON AMERICA’S SUCCESSES AND FAILURES. 2/3, 10:00-11:30am (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Douglas N. Harris, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brown Center on Education Policy, The Brookings Institution, Professor, Chair, Department of Economics, Tulane; Gary Hoover, Executive Director, Murphy Institute; Ariel Kalil, Daniel Levin, Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy; Kiron Skinner, Taube Family Chair of International Relations and Politics, Pepperdine School of Public Policy; Scott Winship, Director, Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility, AEI.
JORDAN AND THE ANNEXATION OF THE WEST BANK. 2/3, 11:00am–Noon (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Speakers: Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Bruce Riedel, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution; Annelle Sheline, Research Fellow, Quincy Institute; Steven Simon, Senior Research Fellow, Quincy Institute.
GEOPOLITICS OF AID: CHINESE, RUSSIAN, AND AMERICAN COVID-19 ASSISTANCE. 2/3, Noon-1:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsors: George Washington University. Speaker: Dr. Mariya Y. Omelicheva, Professor of Strategy, National Defense University.
NEW FRONTIERS IN JAPANESE PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH. 2/3, Noon-1:00pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies, Harvard University. Speakers: Saki Kuzushima, Postdoctoral Fellow, Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University; Hirofumi Miwa, Visiting Scholar, Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University and Professor, Gakushuin University.
THE GREENS’ DILEMMA: BUILDING TOMORROW’S CLIMATE INFRASTRUCTURE TODAY. 2/3, 1:00-2:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Environmental Law Institute. Speakers: J.B. Ruhl, David Daniels Allen Distinguished Chair in Law, Joe B. Wyatt Distinguished University Professor, Vanderbilt; James Salzman, Bren Distinguished Professor of Environmental Law, UC Santa Barbara.
NAVIGATING BURDEN-SHARING: US ALLIES IN NORTHEAST ASIA. 2/3, 6:00-7:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Foreign Policy Research Institute. Speakers: Dr. Kuyoun Chung, Associate Professor, Political Science, Kangwon National University; Michael Mazza, Senior Director, Project 2049 Institute; William Chou, Deputy Director, Japan Chair, Hudson Institute; Connor Fiddler, Associate Deputy Director, Asia Program, FPRI.
THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT IN JAPANESE DOCUMENTARY FILMS. 2/3, 7:00pm (JST) 5:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Rikkyo University. Speaker: Ayelet Zohar, Tel Aviv University.
THE ART OF POWER: MY STORY AS AMERICA'S FIRST WOMAN SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE. 2/3, 7:30pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Truman Library Institute. Speaker: Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3PGieG2
BOOK LAUNCH: HUMANITARIAN INTERNATIONALISM UNDER EMPIRE. 2/3, 7:30-8:30pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Modern Japan History Association. Speaker: author Michiko Suzuki, Project Researcher, Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/4aBCUZx
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