The Year of Snakes

Ishiba Embarks on a Year of Difficulty

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 6, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

Having completed negotiations with the opposition parties over political and tax reform at the end of last year, Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet now faces new and serious tests in 2025. The first one will be passage of the annual budget bill, which must occur by the end of March. Failure to meet this deadline or mishandling of procedure in the Diet may affect the Upper House elections, which are going to be set for July 20. Whether the Ishiba Cabinet will survive long enough to celebrate its one-year-old birthday on October 1 is anyone’s guess.
 
Ishiba took a longer new-year recess than previous prime ministers have. The prime minister typically would begin a new year on January 4 by visiting the Ise Jungu Shrine and holding a press conference. Ishiba announced last month that he would visit Ise on January 6 and hold his first press conference that afternoon.
 
In the press conference on January 6, Ishiba said he hoped to build a “pleasant Japan.” According to his historiography, the government of Japan has built a “strong Japan,” and business sector has created a “prosperous Japan.” He proposed a new Japan where the people can live their lives with the hope of a better tomorrow. Quoting the policy of his political mentor, Kakuei Tanaka, he named his initiative the “Reiwa version of remodeling the Japanese archipelago.”
 
In 2025, Ishiba will focus on achieving a growth-oriented economy led by wage hikes and investments. He hopes to establish a sustainable social security system that will be available to every generation. To strengthen national responses to natural disasters, the Ishiba administration is promoting a new Disaster Prevention Agency, hopefully to be in operation in FY 2026.
 
North Korea launched a missile in the morning of the day. Ishiba recognizes that security in the Northeast Asia is not unrelated to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine. He regards the current situation as the most difficult in the post-war era. While the day for a meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has not been fixed, Ishiba said that he would ask the U.S. President how the acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel would affect U.S. security.
 
Implementation of Ishiba’s 2025 agenda is a function of the budget. The leading coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito does not have a simple majority in the House of Representatives to pass the budget bill. Following the loss of that simple majority in the general election of the Lower House last October, Ishiba tried to gain the support of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP).
 
The DPP, however, refused to guarantee support for the FY 2025 budget. This was in response to the LDP’s failure to support DPP’s proposal to raise the income tax threshold to 1.78 million yen of a household’s annual income.
 
Fortunately for Ishiba, the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) has offered a helping hand. Its co-leader, Seiji Maehara, has indicated that Ishin might vote yes on the FY 2025 budget – provided that the LDP-Komeito embraces Ishin’s policy of free education. The LDP and Komeito have launched a discussion with Ishin on free education, as they had with the DPP on tax reform.
 
Since he is not optimistic that he can assemble a majority to back the budget bill, Ishiba has not ruled out a grand coalition that would invite the opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), to his cabinet. In a radio broadcast on January 1, Ishiba raised the possibility of a grand coalition. “It is possible as one of the options we have,” Ishiba said about including members of opposition parties.
 
To Ishiba’s regret, the leaders of the main opposition parties have so far resisted the idea of a grand coalition. The head of the CDPJ, Yoshihiko Noda, observed that a grand coalition would be an option only in an extreme emergency such as a great earthquake or a pandemic. The leaders of DPP and Ishin also emphasized that they would position themselves as opposition parties in their continuing policy talks with the LDP and Komeito. Ishiba had to tone his words down in his new year press conference that he would not go for the grand coalition immediately.
 
One of the options for a prime minister in a time of political difficulty is to call a snap election. Ishiba mentioned the idea of dissolving the House of Representatives last month. “It is reasonable for a prime minister to ask the voters a decision when a budget bill or other important bills are refused in the Diet,” Ishiba said in late December.
 
“Important bills” apparently include a no-confidence resolution against the prime minister. “If the House of Representatives passes a non-confidence resolution, or rejects a confidence resolution, the Cabinet shall resign en masse, unless the House of Representatives is dissolved within ten days,” according to Article 69 of the Constitution of Japan.
 
Competing language in Article 7 recognizes that the Emperor may act in matters of state and that, if he proposes to do so, the Cabinet must give its advice and approval. Possible actions for the Emperor include dissolution of the House of Representatives. Ishiba has not been in favor of a dissolution based on Article 7, recognizing it as an arbitrary action. However, Ishiba has indicated that he might invoke Article 7 in a deadlock over the budget bill.
 
Ishiba’s reference to a snap election has been interpreted as a willingness to hold a double election of the two Houses. The election of the Upper House is already scheduled for July 20. Ishiba could call for the Lower House election on the same day. He has, however, dismissed that possibility. If Ishiba were to go forward unilaterally on the double election, it is likely that, given continuing low approval ratings for Ishiba, members in the LDP would begin to take action to replace him.
 
Even if the July 20 election is for the Upper House alone, the election will be a serious test for Ishiba. If Ishiba cannot garner support for the annual budget bill or if he fails to resolve the debate over the prohibition of political donations by companies or organizations, the approval ratings for the Cabinet will inevitably decline. This will directly affect the results of the Upper House election.
 
If the leading coalition loses seats and its simple majority in the Upper House – as has already occurred in the Lower House – the Ishiba Cabinet will find itself in serious trouble. Ishiba may face a choice between forming a new coalition with other parties or stepping down. Without a majority in either house, Ishiba will have an extremely challenging task in working with the opposition parties on any matter of policy. For the opposition parties then, it will be critical to unite to defeat the LDP in the Upper House election.
 
This August will mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. The prime minister of Japan will issue a statement commemorating the anniversary. The historic 50th anniversary statement by Tomiichi Murayama expressed “deep remorse” and “heartfelt apology.” For the 75^th anniversary, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stripped these words from the annual statement. Nobody knows so far who will issue the statement this year or what will be its intent.