Prime Minister Ishiba’s Second Policy Speech

Trying to move forward while standing in place

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
December 2, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivered his second policy speech to the Diet at the beginning of an extraordinary session on November 29. Since his first policy speech in October, the LDP’s political fortunes took a sharp turn for the worse, Ishiba now faces a hung parliament. He is careful not to exacerbate the opposition parties’ resentment of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) by listening humbly to the opposition.
 
Ishiba quoted a short-termed predecessor, Tanzan Ishibashi, who had been a prime minister from the LDP for 65 days in 1956 and 1957. “As the basis of national politics, we need to establish a system of regular discussion on the issues to cooperate with each other, disclosing each standpoint and cooperating with each other to catch up with the progress of the world,” said Ishiba, quoting Ishibashi’s speech. Ishiba proposed, as a basic principle of democracy, positive discussion of the policies even in a hung parliament.
 
The opposition parties did not approve of Ishiba’s invocation of Ishibashi, who was a prominent journalist and one of the leaders of the democratic movement in Japan during the Taisho era. The head of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Yoshihiko Noda, said “there is a great difference between famous Ishibashi and Ishiba.”
 
Ishiba focused on two reforms in his speech: tax reform and political reform. On taxes, the LDP has acceded to the position of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) to mitigate the “Wall of 1.03 trillion yen.” This “wall” represents obstruction for workers to work as much as they like. 1.03 trillion yen is the threshold of annual income, above which income tax is imposed. Workers stop working to be exempt from income tax, when each of their annual income reaches 1.03 million.
 
The LDP and DPP, with Komeito, have agreed that a higher threshold of annual income should be adopted in this Diet session. In for its concession on the DPP’s policy, the LDP received an assurance from the DPP that its members will vote yes to the supplemental budget of Ishiba Cabinet.
 
Ishiba also promised to introduce a bill to reduce the gasoline tax, another proposal from the DPP. “To wrap up our economic stimulus plan, we have been making utmost efforts to introduce excellent policies beyond the border of parties,” said Ishiba in the speech, even if he did not mention when the reduction would be introduced.
 
He stressed his willingness to listen to the opposition. So far, however, Ishiba has agreed to accept policies only from the DPP; he has had no meaningful policy discussions with other opposition parties.
 
Ishiba’s limited approach has not enamored him to the other opposition parties and invited a backlash on political reform legislation. Ishiba offered three reforms: abolition of the policy activities fund, which does not require disclosure of the purpose for which each party used the fund, establishment of a third-party organization to monitor political funds, and the creation of a public database of political funds reports. “I will sincerely deal with those issues through multi-partisan discussions to restore public confidence to our politics,” Ishiba said.
 
Three opposition parties, CDPJ, the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai), and the Japan Communist Party, rejected Ishiba’s reform package because it did not include  a prohibition on contributions the business sector and organizations to political parties. Although the LDP promised to review company donations in 1993, the issue has languished for decades.
 
The problem is that the LDP now relies on these very donations. According to the political funds report for 2023, released by the Ministry for Internal Affairs and Communications on November 29, the People’s Political Association, which accepts donations for the LDP from companies, received 240 million yen of donations from private companies or business organizations in 2023. The biggest donor was the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, which includes Toyota and Honda. These car exporters will have benefited from LDP policies that are designed to depreciate the Japanese yen.
 
Another piece of bad news for Ishiba and the LDP is that the opposition parties are taking more integrated actions. They are not only consulting with each other on legislation in the Diet, they are considering cooperation in the election of the Upper House next summer.
 
For example, Ishin elected the governor of Osaka, Hirofumi Yoshimura, as the new leader of the party, replacing Nobuyuki Baba who had been reluctant to cooperate with the CDPJ. Yoshimura announced that he would seek further cooperation among the opposition parties to field integrated opposition candidates in prefectural single-seat constituencies in the next Upper House election.
 
A modest piece of good news for Ishiba is that there appears to be no obvious power in the LDP that opposes his leadership – at least so far. But frustration with Ishiba will swell if he fails to raise the public’s approval rating for his cabinet. The Upper House election is fast approaching (by July 27, 2025), and it will present another test of the LDP’s leadership.