Monday Asia Events December 9, 2024

BOOK TALK: ULRIKE SCHAEDE, AUTHOR OF JAPAN RE-EMERGES（シン・日本の経営 悲観バイアスを排す). 12/9, 5:45-8:30pm (JST), 3:45-6:30am (EST). HYBRID. Sponsor: Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan. Speakers: Ulrike Schaede, Professor of Japanese Business, University of California San Diego, School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS). Fee. 

UNLOCKING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE FOR SOLUTIONS TO INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE. 12/9, 9:00-10:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for Global Development. Speakers Include: Christelle Cazabat, PhD, Head of Programmes, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre; Mohamed Amine Hillal, Financing Adviser, Solutions, UN Office of the Special Adviser on Solutions to Internal Displacement. 

REAUTHORIZING THE NATIONAL QUANTUM INITIATIVE. 12/9, Noon-1:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: Arthur Herman, Senior fellow and director of the Quantum Alliance Initiative, Hudson Institute; Ryan McKenney, General Counsel of Compliance and Director of Government Relations, Quantinuum; Rima Oueid, Senior Commercialization Executive, US Department of Energy’s Office of Technology Transitions; Allison R. Schwartz, Vice President of Global Government Relations and Public Affairs, D-Wave Quantum Inc. 

BOOK TALK: WHERE TYRANNY BEGINS: THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT, THE FBI, AND THE WAR ON DEMOCRACY. 12/9, Noon-1:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: New America. Speaker: author David Rohde, National Security Editor, NBC News.  PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3OAKkly

[POSTPONED] PARTNERS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC: US POLICY IN THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION. 12/9, 1:30-5:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speakers: Yoon Jin-sik, Chairman, Korea International Trade Association; Ambassador Cho Hyundong, Ambassador, Embassy of the Republic of Korea; Michael Beeman, Former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan, Korea and APEC; Park Jongwon, Deputy Minister for Trade, Republic of Korea; Troy Stangarone, Director of the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy, Deputy Director of the Indo-Pacific Program; Kayla Orta, Senior Associate, Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy; Kellee Wicker, Director, Science and Technology Innovation Program; Park Jin, Global Fellow, Former Foreign Minister, Republic of Korea; Yeo Han-koo, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Former Trade Minister, Republic of Korea; Mark Kennedy, Director, Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition; Clete Willems, Partner, International Trade Policy, Akin and former Deputy Assistant to the President for International Economics and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council; Ambassador Choi Seokyoung, Former Korean Ambassador for Economic and Trade Affairs; Melissa K. Griffith, Lecturer in Technology and National Security, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Mario Masaya, Senior Research Director, US-ASEAN Business Council; Scott Jacobs, Senior Principal for Global Government Affairs, Coupang.

CLIMATE AND THE 2024 ELECTION. 12/11, 6:00-8:00pm (EST). IN PERSON. Sponsor: Columbia Climate School. Speakers: Sheila Foster, leading scholar of environmental and climate justice; Michael Gerrard, Andrew Sabin Professor of Professional Practice, Columbia Law School. 

TRUMP’S SECOND ACT: WHAT IT MEANS FOR ASIA AND PAKISTAN. 12/12, 9:30-10:30am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Asia Society. Speakers: Daniel Russel, Vice President of International Security and Diplomacy, ASPI; Maleeha Lodhi, fmr. Ambassador to the US, Pakistan,. Permanent Representative to US, Pakistan; Kamran Yousaf, Journalist, Host, The Review, Express News. https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/events/trumps-second-act-what-it-means-asia-and-pakistan

THE LAST FOUR YEARS OF CYBER POLICY: A RETROSPECTIVE. 12/9, 1:00-2:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Robert Knake, Principal of Orkestrel; Kiersten Todt, CSIS Non-Resident Senior Associate, President of Wondros; Mark Montgomery, Senior Director, Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

BOOK LAUNCH: VIETNAM’S AMERICAN WAR: A NEW HISTORY. 12/9, 4:00-5:30pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speakers: author, Pierre Asselin, Dwight E. Stanford Chair in the History of US Foreign Relations at San Diego State University; Olga Dror, Professor of History, Texas A&M University; Jessica Frazier, Associate Professor in the History and Gender and Women’s Studies Departments, University of Rhode Island.  PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3OCchcE

Prime Minister Ishiba’s Second Policy Speech

Trying to move forward while standing in place

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
December 2, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivered his second policy speech to the Diet at the beginning of an extraordinary session on November 29. Since his first policy speech in October, the LDP’s political fortunes took a sharp turn for the worse, Ishiba now faces a hung parliament. He is careful not to exacerbate the opposition parties’ resentment of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) by listening humbly to the opposition.
 
Ishiba quoted a short-termed predecessor, Tanzan Ishibashi, who had been a prime minister from the LDP for 65 days in 1956 and 1957. “As the basis of national politics, we need to establish a system of regular discussion on the issues to cooperate with each other, disclosing each standpoint and cooperating with each other to catch up with the progress of the world,” said Ishiba, quoting Ishibashi’s speech. Ishiba proposed, as a basic principle of democracy, positive discussion of the policies even in a hung parliament.
 
The opposition parties did not approve of Ishiba’s invocation of Ishibashi, who was a prominent journalist and one of the leaders of the democratic movement in Japan during the Taisho era. The head of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Yoshihiko Noda, said “there is a great difference between famous Ishibashi and Ishiba.”
 
Ishiba focused on two reforms in his speech: tax reform and political reform. On taxes, the LDP has acceded to the position of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) to mitigate the “Wall of 1.03 trillion yen.” This “wall” represents obstruction for workers to work as much as they like. 1.03 trillion yen is the threshold of annual income, above which income tax is imposed. Workers stop working to be exempt from income tax, when each of their annual income reaches 1.03 million.
 
The LDP and DPP, with Komeito, have agreed that a higher threshold of annual income should be adopted in this Diet session. In for its concession on the DPP’s policy, the LDP received an assurance from the DPP that its members will vote yes to the supplemental budget of Ishiba Cabinet.
 
Ishiba also promised to introduce a bill to reduce the gasoline tax, another proposal from the DPP. “To wrap up our economic stimulus plan, we have been making utmost efforts to introduce excellent policies beyond the border of parties,” said Ishiba in the speech, even if he did not mention when the reduction would be introduced.
 
He stressed his willingness to listen to the opposition. So far, however, Ishiba has agreed to accept policies only from the DPP; he has had no meaningful policy discussions with other opposition parties.
 
Ishiba’s limited approach has not enamored him to the other opposition parties and invited a backlash on political reform legislation. Ishiba offered three reforms: abolition of the policy activities fund, which does not require disclosure of the purpose for which each party used the fund, establishment of a third-party organization to monitor political funds, and the creation of a public database of political funds reports. “I will sincerely deal with those issues through multi-partisan discussions to restore public confidence to our politics,” Ishiba said.
 
Three opposition parties, CDPJ, the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai), and the Japan Communist Party, rejected Ishiba’s reform package because it did not include  a prohibition on contributions the business sector and organizations to political parties. Although the LDP promised to review company donations in 1993, the issue has languished for decades.
 
The problem is that the LDP now relies on these very donations. According to the political funds report for 2023, released by the Ministry for Internal Affairs and Communications on November 29, the People’s Political Association, which accepts donations for the LDP from companies, received 240 million yen of donations from private companies or business organizations in 2023. The biggest donor was the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, which includes Toyota and Honda. These car exporters will have benefited from LDP policies that are designed to depreciate the Japanese yen.
 
Another piece of bad news for Ishiba and the LDP is that the opposition parties are taking more integrated actions. They are not only consulting with each other on legislation in the Diet, they are considering cooperation in the election of the Upper House next summer.
 
For example, Ishin elected the governor of Osaka, Hirofumi Yoshimura, as the new leader of the party, replacing Nobuyuki Baba who had been reluctant to cooperate with the CDPJ. Yoshimura announced that he would seek further cooperation among the opposition parties to field integrated opposition candidates in prefectural single-seat constituencies in the next Upper House election.
 
A modest piece of good news for Ishiba is that there appears to be no obvious power in the LDP that opposes his leadership – at least so far. But frustration with Ishiba will swell if he fails to raise the public’s approval rating for his cabinet. The Upper House election is fast approaching (by July 27, 2025), and it will present another test of the LDP’s leadership.

Monday Asia Events December 2, 2024

IMPLICATIONS OF AN IRANIAN NUCLEAR BOMB. 12/2, 10:30-11:45am (EST).
VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Heritage Foundation. Speakers: Right Hon. Liz Truss, Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom; Nile Gardiner, Director, Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom and Bernard and Barbara Lomas Fellow; Robert Peters, Research Fellow, Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense; Andrea Stricker, Deputy Director and Research Fellow, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, FDD; Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, The Stimson Center. 

"LIQUIDSCAPE" AND THE ART OF CURATING FROM REGIONAL JAPAN. 12/2, 8:00-9:15am (JST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Asia Society Japan. Speaker: Yuka Takahashi, Curator, Arts Maebashi.   

BOOK TALK: THE TROUBLEMAKER: HOW JIMMY LAI BECAME A BILLIONAIRE, HONG KONG’S GREATEST DISSIDENT, AND CHINA’S MOST FEARED CRITIC. 12/2, 11:00am-Noon (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: AEI. Speaker: author Mark L. Clifford, President, Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation. https://www.aei.org/events/the-troublemaker-how-jimmy-lai-became-a-billionaire-hong-kongs-greatest-dissident-and-chinas-most-feared-critic/ PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/4ihviyE 

 
NEW PARTY POLITICS OF EAST ASIAN DEMOCRACIES. 12/2, Noon-1:15pm (EST). HYBRID. Sponsors: Weatherhead Center Program on U.S.-Japan Relations; Korea Institute, Harvard University; Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Harvard Kennedy School. Speakers: Joan Cho, Associate Professor of East Asian Studies, Wesleyan University; Aram Hur, Kim Koo Chair in Korean Studies and Assistant Professor of Political Science, The Fletcher School, Tufts University; Koichi Nakano, Visiting Scholar, Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University and Professor of Political Science, Sophia University; Daniel Ziblatt, Director, Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies and Eaton Professor of the Science of Government, Harvard University. 

ANGELA MERKEL IN CONVERSATION WITH BARACK OBAMA. 12/2, Noon (EST). IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: The Anthem. Speakers: Angela Merkel, former Chancellor of Germany; Barack Obama, former U.S. President. Fee.

THE FUTURE OF US-CHINA RELATIONS AFTER THE ELECTION. 12/2, 3:30-4:30pm (PST) 6:30-7:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: UC San Diego School of Global Policy Strategy. Speakers: Susan Shirk, Director Emeritus, 21st Century China Center, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy; Xinbo Wu, Dean, Institute of International Studies, Director, Center for American Studies, Fudan University; Richard Madsen, Director, Fudan-UC Center on Contemporary China, Professor Emeritus, Sociology, UC San Diego.