Ishiba Bids for Survival through Diplomacy

Missing Manners

Foreign policy for domestic policy

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
November 18, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba embarked on his first foreign trip since he and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a miserable defeat in October’s Lower House general elections. In Lima, Peru at the November 16-17 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, Ishiba made his utmost effort to establish stable relationships with his counterparts. Success would have boosted his administration. However, the diplomatic complexities of international politics denied him unmitigated success.
 
The summit talk that received the most attention was his first meeting with Chinese President, Xi Jinping. After Ishiba’s meeting last month with the Chinese Premier, Li Qiang, in Vientiane, Laos, the government of Japan has been coordinating a meeting between Ishiba and Xi.
 
In the October meeting, Ishiba and Li reconfirmed the basic principles of their bilateral relationship, including the Mutually Beneficial Relationship Based on Common Strategic Interests and building “constructive and stable Japan-China relations.” Following that shared recognition, Ishiba and Xi reaffirmed the four basic documents that define the relationship between Japan and China: the Joint Communique in 1972, the Treaty of Peace and Friendship in 1978, the Joint Declaration of Building Partnership of Friendship and Cooperation for Peaceful Development in 1998, and Joint Statement in 2008.
 
In the meeting with Xi, Ishiba focused on lifting China’s trade ban against Japanese products, which was a response to Japan’s release of “processed” water from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Ishiba requested that China resume discussions over Japan’s beef and rice exports. Ishiba also sought greater cooperation on the green economy, environment and energy conservation, medical care, nursing care and health care.
 
Regarding security, Ishiba expressed Japan’s concern about the situation in the East China Sea, including the Senkaku Islands and the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits. Ishiba also asked that China enhance its safety measures for Japanese residents in China, particularly in light of the murder of a Japanese boy in Shenzhen. Xi assured Ishiba that China would protect the safety of foreigners, including the Japanese.
 
Overall, China was willing to engage in further talks with Japan. As it prepares for a possible trade conflict with the incoming Trump administration, China will benefit from an improved bilateral relationship with Japan. Compared to former hawkish leaders in Japan, Ishiba is an easy person for China to deal with. Ishiba’s political mentor is former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, a distinguished figure in China’s eyes, who cultivated the bilateral relationship.
 
Ishiba’s determination to revise the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement and to organize an Asian version of NATO are goals that China will respect insofar as they serve to drive a wedge between Japan and the U.S. Xi urged Ishiba to work with China to establish a global framework of free trade with the idea of expanding the market for Chinese goods in Japan.
 
In contrast to China’s positive response to Japan’s approaches, U.S. President-elect, Donald Trump, has dismissed Ishiba’s request for a meeting in the U.S. after the G20 summit November 18-19 in Brazil.
 
Ishiba has said, even before the U.S. Presidential election, that he would explore an early meeting with the President-elect. It is commonly recognized in Japan that a solid personal relationship with the U.S. President may support the Prime Minister’s political standing in Japan. For a prime minister in minority government, Ishiba needs to establish a stable relationship with the U.S. to maintain his cabinet as long as possible.
 
Ishiba was forced to announce during his visit to Peru for the APEC Leaders’ meeting that he had failed to set up an appointment with Trump. According to Ishiba, many foreign leaders have asked to meet the President-elect. The Trump transition team has explained that Trump will not meet with any foreign leaders before the inauguration next January. A U.S. statute, the Logan Act, prohibits any unauthorized American citizen to negotiate disputes with other countries. Ishiba looks for another opportunity after the inauguration.
 
Ishiba did meet with U.S. President Joe Biden in Lima. Ishiba thanked him for his contributions to the Japan-U.S. alliance. The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the continuation of the network of like-minded countries, including the Republic of Korea.
 
Also in Lima, Ishiba and Biden met with the President of the ROK, Yoon Suk Yeol. At this trilateral summit, the leaders agreed to institutionalize their network. They will establish a Trilateral Coordinating Secretariat to deal with various security issues, including nuclear and missile development in North Korea. With considerable effort, the three leaders may be able to do so before Trump takes office.
 
While Ishiba was meeting with foreign leaders in Lima, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Takeshi Iwaya, visited Kyiv, Ukraine, and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Iwaya stressed that Japan will stand by Ukraine and shared serious concerns about the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. Afraid that Trump may try to distance the U.S. from the network of like-minded countries, Japan is accumulating as many diplomatic accomplishments as possible.
 
The expected retreat of the U.S. under the Trump Administration from the multilateral framework promoting democracy, trade, and human rights, there is a growing argument in Japan that Tokyo should take a leadership role in preserving democratic values, the liberal international order, and free trade. At the APEC summit, Ishiba explicitly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and emphasized the importance of preserving fairness and transparency in trade and international investment. He also announced Japan’s bid for the APEC chair in 2031.