A New Coalition Government for Japan

A Partial Union with the DPP?

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
November 4, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

To compensate for the significant loss of seats by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the October 27 general election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba—who will remain prime minister—decided to begin frequent policy discussions with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). This small party agreed to cooperate with the LDP on budget plans and tax reform, but has refused to join the leading coalition with the LDP and Komeito. News organizations in Japan call this type of political cooperation a “partial union.”
 
The leading coalition of the LDP and Komeito has been looking for additional partners to maintain control of the government. Between them, the two parties need 18 or more seats to claim a simple majority in the House. To demonstrate the party leaders’ accountability for losing seats in the election, the Chairperson of the LDP Election Strategy Committee, Shinjiro Koizumi, stepped down. Chief Representative of Komeito, Keiichi Ishii, also announced his resignation. The Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Tetsuo Saito, will replace Ishii.
 
The LDP has targeted the DPP, which gained 28 seats in the election, to cover its shortfall in seats for a simple majority. LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama met with DPP Secretary General Kazuya Shimba on October 31. They agreed to conduct policy talks on the national budget and reform of the tax system. For the LDP, the talks will secure enough votes to pass a budget bill in the House of Representatives, while for the DPP the talks provide a connection with the ruling party to implement DPP policies.
 
However, the DPP did not send a minister to the Ishiba Cabinet. The party may hope to preserve its ability to distance itself from the LDP and return to the group of the opposition parties led by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ). The CDPJ still hopes that the DPP members will vote for its leader, Yoshihiko Noda, in nominations for the prime minister in the Diet.
 
The DPP has already decided to vote for its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, in that election and even in a possible run-off. A run-off likely would be a contest between Ishiba and Noda.  Votes by DPP members for Tamaki would be invalid, which would benefit Ishiba.
 
It is indisputable that the DPP now has swing votes that give it the power to decide every bill in the House of Representatives. How did the party attain this power?
 
The DPP has a complicated history. The party is one of the descendants of the former Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The successor to the DPJ was the Democratic Party (DP). When the DP broke up in 2017, 14 lawmakers (most of them from the DP) established the Party of Hope, headed by the Governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike. Other liberal lawmakers in the DP helped create the CDPJ, led by Yukio Edano. Together, the Party of Hope and certain lawmakers who had remained in the DP established the DPP in 2018.
 
After only two years, in 2020, the DPP split apart. Most DPP members joined the CDPJ. The remaining members maintained DPP as a small opposition party under the leadership of Tamaki. Before the recent election, the DPP had only seven lawmakers in the House of Representatives. As a result of the election, the party expanded to 28 House seats. Following a strategy of approaching young voters and taking advantage of YouTube, the DPP collected the most votes from voters between the ages of 20 and 39 among all parties.
 
The DPP’s campaign slogan, “We will increase take-home pay,” attracted young voters. Tamaki has said that raising the threshold for the imposition of an income tax and reducing household energy costs are conditions for the DPP to cooperate with the leading coalition.
 
Specifically, Tamaki has demanded that the LDP commit to raising the income tax threshold from annual earnings of 1.03 million yen to 1.78 million. This increase is based on increases in the consumer price index over the past several years. He also wants the coalition to activate the “trigger clause” in the gasoline tax. This clause reduces taxes on gasoline when gas prices exceed 160 yen per liter for three consecutive months. The DPP also upheld in its campaign platform education for free or revision of the Political Funds Control Act for further political reform.
 
The LDP is reluctant to accept Tamaki’s demands, due to fiscal difficulties.  Consequently, the LDP may not be able to cobble together a majority government. That is why the LDP is forced to accept some policies of the DPP to maintain its government.
 
This would not be the first time the LDP led a minority government. After the LDP lost its majority in the House of Councillors in 1989, it formed a partial union with Komeito and the Democratic Socialist Party. This union passed the epoch-making International Peace Cooperation Act 1993, which sent the Japan Self-Defense Force overseas for the first time
 
Assembling a majority coalition is not impossible. In 1998, the LDP lost its majority again in the House of Councillors. The LDP entered a coalition with the Liberal Party (LP), but it did not reach a simple majority in the House. The LDP finally invited Komeito in the coalition to form a majority in 1999. The LP served as a critical buffer between the LDP and Komeito. Over the following twenty-five years up to the present time, the LDP has maintained the coalition with Komeito even though the LP has left it.
 
The lesson here is that a coalition is more stable when it includes other parties in a Cabinet, as opposed to a more limited partial union. The DPP still seeks a deal with the CDPJ over political reform, including the abolition of political donations from corporations and organizations, which has met resistance from the LDP. A deal for a partial union with the DPP may not strengthen Ishiba’s leadership over Japan’s politics.