Now what?By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
October 27, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point
The long-standing ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito shattered in Japan’s October 27 House of Representatives elections. They lost their simple majority. To continue its hold on the country’s leadership and policies, the traditional coalition needs to add at least 18 outside lawmakers in the House – yet it is not obvious where the 18 will come from. Meanwhile, the opposition parties are too fragmented to build a new coalition to counter a modified LDP and Komeito bloc. All this throws into question the direction of politics in Japan.
The House has 465 seats, and the majority is 233. The LDP lost 56 seats in the election, down from 247 to 191. Komeito lost six seats, going from 32 to 24. The two parties now have a total of 215 seats, 18 seats short of a majority.
Three opposition parties made significant gains at the LDP-Komeito coalition’s expense. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) gained 148 seats, up 50 from its 98 seats before the election. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) quadrupled its seats from 7 to 28, and Reiwa Shinsengumi tripled its seats from 3 to 9. Two opposition parties lost seats, however. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) saw a reduction of six seats, from 44 to 38. The Japan Communist Party (JCP) lost two seats, from 10 to 8.
The biggest reason for the LDP’s losses was its reluctance to make meaningful political reforms. Despite public concern about the slush fund scandal, the LDP has not departed from the obsolete management of its political fund. Although the fund is discredited in Japan, the LDP nevertheless used it to distribute 20 million yen to their candidates, even including independent candidates who had been excluded from the LDP slate.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to exercise his leadership to reform the party. In fact, he actively avoided reform. He decided to call the early snap election in part to avoid pre-election policy discussions in the Diet. Indeed, the snap election was contrary to his earlier position on timing. In addition, Ishiba embraced bad actors: he included 34 candidates in the LDP slate who had accepted secret funds from factions within the LDP. The election at least included a measure of justice: over half of the 34 lost their seats. These lost seats were the margin by which the LDP lost its majority.
These were not the only significant losses. In the wake of the scandal, prominent and otherwise unassailable candidates lost, including Minister of Justice Hideki Makihara and Minister of Agriculture Yasuhiro Ozato, Traditional LDP heavyweights and prominent conservative nationalists, such as Hakubun Shimomura, Akira Amari, and Seishiro Eto, also were unseated. The former Abe faction within the LDP, the basis of conservative nationalism in the party, saw several members, including Tamayo Marukawa in Tokyo, go down in defeat. The chief representative of Komeito, Keiichi Ishii, also lost.
Article 54 of the Constitution requires that a Diet session must be convoked within 30 days after an election. The Cabinet will resign en masse. Then, each Chamber holds an election to nominate a new prime minister. If the Lower and Upper Houses nominate different people, the vote in the Lower House trumps that in the Upper House. The Diet is now scheduled to meet on November 11.
Ishiba will be reelected prime minister if he is a member of a majority coalition. But the LDP-Komeito coalition no longer has that majority. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, the election will go to a run-off, which does not require majority. In the case of a run-off between Ishiba and CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, Ishiba seems certain to win, because the opposition parties are not united to vote for Noda.
Once a coalition loses its majority, no bill submitted by the cabinet (i.e., annual budget bill) is sure to pass the Diet. The prime minister will always be exposed to the risk of a forced resignation if the opposition parties pass a no-confidence resolution. So, Prime Minister Ishiba must pull enough seats together to secure the majority. It is likely that some independent lawmakers who were dropped from the LDP slate will return to the LDP, but they would not be enough.
Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Ishiba floated to his aides the idea of cooperation with the DPP. The DPP has just enough members to take a coalition with the LDP and Komeito over the top. Although DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki once said that his party would not enter into a coalition with the LDP and Komeito, the DPP will cooperate with any party willing to implement DPP policies.
There are several ways to effect cooperation with the DPP: the DPP could send a member to join the cabinet as a minister, or it could enter into an agreement over some basic policies but without having a representative minister in the cabinet. The LDP once in the past invited some lawmakers of opposition parties to join them to secure majority.
The Ishiba administration’s policy agenda has lost its momentum because the LDP-Komeito coalition needs to focus on building a majority. The government is now supported by only a minority of the Lower House and may have to abandon some policies to invite some lawmakers into a majority coalition.
It is likely that security policies of Ishiba, such as revision of Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement or establishing Asian NATO, will significantly slow down. However, since CDP leader Noda is relatively aligned with the LDP on security issues, there will be no major conflicts over security issues, including diplomacy to enhance security in East Asia. Debates among the parties will center on political reform – an issue that is fatal for the LDP – and on how the budget may serve as an economic stimulus.
Meanwhile, Noda hopes to build a coalition of the opposition parties. Although the total sum of seats of the CDP, DPP, and Ishin is less than a majority of the House, a critical mass of lawmakers in the opposition parties can have an impact on such policies as political reform or the economy.
