LDP's September 27 Presidential Election

Unusual Developments in the LDP’s Presidential Election

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
September 2, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

As the campaign season for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) enters its initial stages, an unprecedentedly substantial number of candidates – twelve – emerged. Some of them have secured the support of the 20 lawmakers necessary for nomination, while others are still searching. However, it is unclear whether the LDP can demonstrate that it has turned away from its old-style politics that have included obscure political funds and a balance of power among factions. 
 
The day after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that he would not pursue another term, he encouraged the Ministers in his Cabinet not to hesitate to run in the LDP presidential election. “There must be someone who will consider running in the presidential election. I hope you can make fair discussions as far as it does not disturb your work,” Kishida told them in a Cabinet Meeting on August 15.
 
Kishida’s comment ignited the race. Some ministers immediately expressed their desire to run. “I hope I can make use of my experiences as minister someday,” said Digital Minister Taro Kono. Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa expressed determination to take action for her candidacy with deliberation. Even Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Ken Saito stepped forward, revealing that some of his colleagues expect him to run.
 
Those moves accelerated the decisions of other possible candidates. The next day, Kono met with the boss of his faction, Taro Aso, to request his endorsement. Aso received a similar request from LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi. Aso approved Kono’s candidacy and told Motegi that he would not have the support of the faction as a whole.
 
Others announced their candidacies within the following days. In addition to Kono, former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, former Defense Minister and LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi all said that they would run.
 
Former Minister of Environment Shinjiro Koizumi and Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi followed. As did former Minister for Women’s Empowerment Seiko Noda, former Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare Katsunobu Kato, and conservative lawmaker Shigeharu Aoyama.
Among those 12, Kobayashi, Ishiba and Kono held press conferences before the end of August. Hayashi, Motegi, Koizumi, Takaichi and Kato will hold theirs in early September. Those eight lawmakers are reportedly confident that they have secured the endorsement of 20 LDP members in the Diet, as required in the LDP presidential election rules. Noda, Aoyama, Kamikawa, and Saito have not yet collected.
 
Under the rules of presidential election, each LDP lawmaker has one vote for a total of 367 votes. Local party members also may vote, but, regardless of the number of local voters, their votes are aggregated to create a pool of votes that are equivalent to 367 of the lawmaker votes. The pool votes are then allocated among the candidates on pro rata basis.
 
Election to the presidency requires a simple majority of the total votes of lawmakers and local, which will be 734, in the first round. If there is no victor in that round, the party will hold a runoff between the two top candidates. While the Diet members still have total 367 votes in the second round, the votes of local party members are reduced to 47, representing each prefectural branch of the party. Each of 47 local votes will go to a candidate who was number one in the prefecture in the first round.
 
A candidate’s prospects can vary considerably between the first and later round. A popular candidate has advantage in the first round because the local votes carry significant weight. But in the later rounds, coalitions among the groups or factions matters can control a majority of the votes because the local member vote is significantly reduced. 
 
When the campaign officially starts on September 12, some of the 12 possible candidates may have dropped out of the race. Not all the candidates will have 20 endorsements. Even among those who do so far, supporters may shift their endorsements from one candidate to another by September 12.
 
If a candidate drops out, his or her supporters will move to other candidates, changing structure of the race. Some candidates will have a first-round advantage and will aggressively seek victory then. Others, however, will shoot for the second round, leading to elaborate arrangements among different groups. That is, the strategy for the second round will be based on factional politics.
 
The biggest topic of discussion so far is Koizumi’s entry into the race. As a young and hopeful lawmaker, whose father is former – and popular – prime minister Jun-ichiro Koizumi, Shinjiro Koizumi has changed the trend of the polls and overtaken Ishiba among the responders who would support the LDP, not necessarily the members of the LDP.
 
In the poll of Asahi Shimbun late August, Koizumi held 28 percent among the LDP supporters, leaving Ishiba (23 percent) behind. Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who had been the guardian of an earlier trilateral coalition of Ishiba, Koziumi and Kono, announced that he would support Koizumi this time.
 
Since local LDP leaders tend to be older, there is a speculation that the veteran Ishiba has the advantage over the young and unexperienced Koizumi in the local members’ voting on September 27.
 
For the candidates who lack broad popular support, how to survive the first round is a great concern. While they campaign among the local party members as much as they can, they and their supporters must consider how to vote in the second round if they are not one of the top two vote getters.
 
Negotiations for the runoff are ongoing behind the scenes right now. Typically, in an LDP presidential election, some leaders who support different candidates in the first round will seek to form a coalition to take united action in the second-round runoff.
 
Possible candidates for LDP presidential election

Name	Age	Cabinet Minister of	LDP Board	Former Job	University
ISHIBA, Shigeru	67	Defense, Agriculture, Local Revitalization	Secretary General,	Mitsui Bank	Keio
KONO, Taro	61	Digital, MOFA, Defense, Administrative Reform	Public Affairs	Fuji Xerox	Georgetown
KOIZUMI, Shinjiro	43	Environment		Father’s Secretary	Kanto Gakuin
KOBAYASHI, Takayuki	49	Economic Security		MOF	Tokyo
MOTEGI, Toshimitsu	68	MOFA, METI, Economic Revitalization	SG, Election Strategy	McKinsey	Tokyo
HAYASHI, Yoshimasa	63	CCS, MOFA, Defense, Education, Agriculture		Mitsui & Co., Secretary	Tokyo
TAKAICHI, Sanae	63	Economic Security, Internal Affairs	Policy Research	Newscaster	Kobe
KATO, Katsunobu	68	MHLW, CCS, Childbirth	General Council	MOF	Tokyo
KAMIKAWA, Yoko	71	MOFA, Justice, Childbirth		Mitsubishi Research	Tokyo
NODA, Seiko	63	Internal Affairs, Women’s Empowerment, Postal	General Council	Imperial Hotel	Sophia
SAITO, Ken	65	METI, Justice, Agriculture		METI	Tokyo
AOYAMA, Shigeharu	72			Kyodo News	Waseda

(Incumbent is underscored)
 
CDP Race with Old Faces
The leading opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), will hold its leader’s election on September 23. A former head of the party Yukio Edano and former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda have announced their bids. The incumbent head, Kenta Izumi, plans to run for a second term. He is still collecting endorsements in the party.
 
Although Edano and Noda have secured 20 endorsements (the same threshold as the LDP’s), Izumi still struggles to gather enough. There is little chance for any new face to emerge. A freshwoman, Harumi Yoshida, and some others hope to run, but have little confidence that they can secure 20 endorsements.
  
Noda has said that the election should not be a race of the old faces – yet he has sought and received the support of the veteran kingmaker Ichiro Ozawa. Edano meanwhile is backed by the biggest faction in the CDP, called Sanctuary.
 
In their press conferences for their candidacies, Edano and Noda made clear their intent to take administration back from the LDP. But the way forward is not clear. They try to approach the Democratic Party for the People and Japan. But the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) still rejects cooperation with the CDP. A coalition with the Japan Communist Party (JCP) is not a realistic choice, but Edano and Noda have not denied cooperation with the JCP in some districts.
 
Behind the race between the two veteran leaders, CDP members are frustrated that the party has not achieved an obvious boost in the polls because of the LDP’s slush fund scandal.   
 
The greatest concern for the CDP is not attracting the public attention away from the LDP.
 
Possible candidates for CDP leader’s election

Name	Age	Cabinet Position	Party Board	Former Job	University
EDANO, Yukio	60	CCS, METI, Administrative Reform	Head	Lawyer	Tohoku
NODA, Yoshihiko	67	Prime Minister, MOF	Head (DPJ)	Chiba Prefectural Assembly	Waseda
IZUMI, Kenta	50		Head	Secretary	Ritsumeikan
YOSHIDA, Harumi	52			Secretary	Rikkyo
MABUCHI, Sumio	64	MLIT	Diet Affairs	General, Co.	Yokohama National
EDA, Kenji	68		SG (Your Party)	METI	Tokyo

(Incumbent is underscored)