CDP Elects A New Leader

And its Yoshihiko Noda

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
Special to Asia Policy Point, September 23, 2024

Japan’s largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), elected former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda as its president in an extraordinary national convention on September 23. Noda’s goal is to take back the administration of the government from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Noda is entering a competition against the leading coalition in the election of House of Representatives, which is expected to be held soon after the LDP decides new president later this week.
 
The CDP Electoral Process
Four groups are eligible to vote for the CDP leader: 1) CDP lawmakers, 2) registered candidates for the next election of the Diet (for example, a former lawmaker who lost in last election but now plans to run in next election), 3) local assembly members registered to CDP, and 4) rank-and-file party members and supporters who have paid a membership fee.
 
CDP has 136 lawmakers in both Chambers of the Diet, each of whom has two points. Total points for the lawmakers are 272. Each of the 98 registered candidates for Diet election has one point, which amounts to 98 points. A total of 370 points is available.
 
Local assembly members of the CDP and rank-and-file members/supporters also have a total of 370 points. The CDP has about 1,200 local assembly members and about a 100,000 rank-and-file members and registered supporters in all over Japan. In the first round, each group has 185 points, totaling another 370. The points are allocated to the candidates pro rata, depending on the percentage of votes received.
 
In the second round, if no one secures a majority in the first round, lawmakers (with two points for each), registered candidates (one point for each) and delegates from CDP’s prefectural branches, which amount to 47 (one point for each), would vote.
 
The victorious candidate must receive at least 371 votes of the 740 available in round one. In the second round, the winner must obtain at least 209 of the 417 points.
 
The Election
Four candidates entered the race. Of the four, Noda received the largest number of votes from CDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members of the party. He collected 267 points in total: 128 points from lawmakers and registered candidates, and 139 points from local assembly members and rank-and-file members/supporters. The former head of CDP, Yukio Edano, received a total of 206 points with 83 and 123, respectively. Noda thus received stronger support among CDP lawmakers than did Edano, but both were well below the majority threshold of 371 votes. The other two candidates, the current head of the CDP, Kenta Izumi, and Harumi Yoshida were left behind by a wide margin.
 
Since no candidate secured the necessary 371-vote majority in the first round, Noda and Edano competed in a second-round runoff election. Noda secured 232 points, defeating Edano with 180 points. It was clear from the runoff that registered candidates preferred Noda to Edano.
 
Noda’s Policies
Noda’s victory reflects the party members’ appreciation of Noda’s political skill as a veteran lawmaker and his experience as prime minister. Of course, Noda is also known as the prime minister who, in calling a snap election in 2012, handed the administration back to Shinzo Abe and the LDP for many years. Still, neither Edano nor Izumi has a brilliant record as the head of the CDP.
 
In the Diet discussion about the LDP’s slush fund scandal, Noda argued forcefully against Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and demanded fundamental reforms of the political activity funds. Yet Noda also delivered an impressive eulogy in the Diet in October 2022, regretting Abe’s early death before the CD took back the administration from the LDP. “I do not want to accept this end with your win,” said Noda.
 
It is likely that CDP members have accepted such LDP-friendly activities of Noda because he is one of the leaders of the party. He emphasizes his stance to reach out to moderate conservatives. Some in the CDP recognized his stance as workable as a strategy for next general election.
 
Noda has said that regime change would be the greatest reform of the LDP’s activities. He has criticized lawmakers in the LDP who have inherited political assets without the imposition of any tax. Noda is challenging LDP politics deeply rooted in inheritance of seats in the Diet from father to son.
 
The CDP platform is unequivocally opposed to nuclear power plants, but Noda’s commitment to the goal is less clear. “It is how we promote realistic policies with embracing our ideal,” Noda said about the issue of nuclear power plants.
 
Noda has not supported immediate change to security legislation that was introduced by Abe administration, but that has been criticized as unconstitutional. While Edano, Izumi and Yoshida would revise the status of forces agreement with the United States, Noda has only said that he would talk with U.S. on the issue, respecting opinions of the people in Okinawa.
 
These political stances may cause friction with the CDP’s left flank. It is possible for Noda to seek cooperation with other opposition parties, especially conservative ones, but the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) has been reluctant to do so. The CDP and Ishin compete with each other in a large number of Lower House electoral districts. The Democratic Party for the People is watching Noda’s handling of the CDP.
 
Noda’s concept for cooperation marks the sharpest difference from Edano. Edano ran for the CDP leadership premised on an administration run solely by the CDP. But Noda thinks that exclusive CDP administration is unrealistic. He instead hopes to maximize the seats of all opposition parties to push the LDP into a minority. 
 
However, a coalition government may not be especially realistic either. The conservative Noda has not sought to cooperate with the Japan Communist Party (JCP). The JCP has already announced that it would field candidates in some electoral districts where the CDP has its own candidates. Whether Noda can unite the CDP and the opposition parties remains to be seen.
 
Noda’s People
On September 24, Noda, picked Jun-ya Ogawa for the CDP’s Secretary General. He also selected Kazuhiko Shigetoku for Chairman of the Policy Research Council and Hirofumi Ryu for Chairman of the Diet Affairs Committee. Hiroshi Ogushi stays as the Chairman of Election Strategy Committee. Noda appointed Ogushi, Akira Nagatsuma, and Kiyomi Tsujimoto as Deputy Heads of the party. By appointing members younger than himself as board members, Noda hopes to give a fresh face to the party for voters in the coming House of Representatives’ general election.
 
Nagatsuma, 64, is known as a specialist of welfare issues, dubbed as “Mr. Pension System,”and Tsujimoto, 64, positions herself on the left side of the party, who is known as a liberal lawmaker starting her political career as a member of the Social Democratic Party.
 
Ogawa, Shigetoku, and Ryu supported Noda in the leader’s election of the CDP. While Noda had a choice to appoint other candidates to the board to demonstrate unification of the party, he rather chose to exclude his contenders from his team. The leadership with like-minded lawmakers may make policy promotion easier, but it can leave some instability in the party for internal struggle over basic policies.
 
Ogawa, 53, is known as a liberal lawmaker who frequently stood for questioning in the committees of the Diet. He formerly worked for Ministry for Internal Affairs and Communications. In 2021, he ran in the leader’s election losing to Kenta Izumi. Ogawa worked for Izumi as the Chairman of Policy Research Council. Although Ogawa has built a framework of electoral cooperation with some other opposition parties, including Japan’s Communist Party, in Kagawa 1 district, JCP announced that it would field its own candidate in the district, indicating termination of its cooperation.
 
Shigetoku, 54, is a member of House of Representatives, and the head of a CDP policy group called the Chokkan-no Kai (Group of Remonstration). The group has between 10 to 12 members, many who demanded that Noda run in the leadership election. He was a bureaucrat in Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications before becoming a member of the Diet, and formerly affiliated to Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai).
 
Hirofumi Ryu, 59, is a specialist in Diet affairs. He had been a TV Asahi political journalist. He joined the Party of Hope, led by the Governor of Tokyo Yuriko Koike, in 2017. He joined CDP in 2021.
 
Hiroshi Ogushi, 59, has been the chair of election strategy under the leadership of Izumi from 2021. Because there might soon be a snap election, Noda decided not to change the party’s election chief.