Tokyo's Elections

Resentment against Existing Parties Shown in Tokyo Elections

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
July 8, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

The incumbent governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, secured her third term in the gubernatorial election on July 7. A contender supported by the opposition parties in national politics, Renho, came third behind an independent candidate, Shinji Ishimaru. The result, including by-elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, showed a fundamental resentment against existing political parties -- casting a shadow on the future of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

In her campaign Koike promised to update her policies, including support for families with children, and emphasized disaster management. She named her campaign policies “Tokyo Great Reform 3.0.”

Koike did not accept official support from the LDP and Komeito for her campaign. Still, both parties voluntarily promoted her. According to an exit poll of NHK, 60 percent of LDP supporters and 80 percent of Komeito supporters voted for Koike. They are undeniably the driving force behind Koike’s victory.

She successfully distanced herself from the LDP, which has been unpopular in the current election season. The party’s unpopularity dates to the by-elections for the House of Representatives in April and is the result of the slush fund scandal. Although Koike was formerly an LDP lawmaker, she separated from the LDP as the governor of Tokyo, leading her Tokyoites First Party. That stance made LDP’s “stealth support” for Koike easier.

Renho meanwhile failed to set her agenda within the structure of confrontation between the leading and opposition parties in national politics. When she announced her candidacy in May, Renho emphasized her bid against Koike as “anti-LDP, non-Koike.” But Koike eluded Renho’s campaign strategy, by refusing any help from the LDP on the campaign trail. Renho ironically lost her momentum by accepting support from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Japan Communist Party (JCP).

The true anti-LDP candidate turned out to be Ishimaru. As a former mayor of Aki-Takata City, Hiroshima, Ishimaru ran his campaign through social networking. In his speeches on the street, he asked his audience to upload his campaign materials to the Internet, instead appealing his own policies for Tokyo. In YouTube videos, he continued to denounce existing politics.

Unfortunately for Koike, she did not receive a true majority of the vote; the sum of votes for Renho and Ishimaru exceeded what Koike obtained. There were frequent disturbances during Koike’s speeches. It is undeniable that Koike was regarded by voters as one of the leaders of the old politics.

It was a comfortable outcome for the LDP, none the less. Since the complete defeat in all three by-elections of the House of Representatives in April, Koike’s win was the first major victory of a candidate supported by the LDP. Party leaders are not feeling it, though. “Koike’s victory is not our party’s victory. Criticisms still remain and we need to promote party reforms,” LDP Deputy Secretary General, Tomomi Inada, told NHK News.

The LDP’s pessimism is based on the result of the by-elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly that were held the same day. Although the LDP ran candidates in eight of nine districts, it won in only two. The party representation was reduced by three seats in the election, facing criticisms of its management of political funds as shown in the slush fund scandal in the Diet.

In the Hachioji district, an independent candidate defeated the LDP candidate by a great margin. Hachioji is the district where one of the leaders of the Abe faction, Koichi Hagiuda, has been keeping his seat in the House of Representatives. Although party leaders, including Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi and a popular candidate as the next prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, campaigned for the LDP candidate, their appearances did not soften the negative impact on the party.

In the Koto district, which overlaps with the Tokyo 15 district in the House of Representatives -- where the LDP lost in a by-election in April -- the LDP candidate lost to an independent. In the other four districts, the LDP lost by slight margins to the CDP, the Tokyoites First Party or an independent. Strangely enough, the LDP won by a big margin in the Itabashi district, which is in the grip of another leader of the Abe faction, Hakubun Shimomura, who is among the most conservative.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida did not stand on the stage of any campaigns in the Tokyo gubernatorial election or the by-elections of the assembly. It was obvious that Kishida would have received harsh criticism of his handling of the slush fund scandal from the audience. The result of the elections in Tokyo will work against Kishida’s reelection this fall.

Renho’s defeat cast doubt on the value of the CDP’s cooperation with the JCP.   Running Renho for Tokyo governor was a decision of the CDP with expectation that, in the party’s following winds from the major victories in the by-elections in April, she could sail to victory.

The CDP may reconsider its strategy for the next general election of the House of Representatives. The result of elections in Tokyo may also affect the selection of the next CDP leader in September.

The unexpected success of Ishimaru may affect the campaign strategies of the existing parties. Ishimaru proved that a campaign relying on SNS could overcome the biggest opposition party. He boasted that running against Prime Minister Kishida in his district in Hiroshima of the House of Representatives would be an option for him in the next election. His message against the politics of existing parties struck a chord with certain voters.

Frustration with current politics is reflected in the number of candidates. Fifty-six candidates ran for the one seat of governor, marking a new record. The public poster boards in the streets did not have room for all the candidates.

Tokyo gubernatorial election in 2024 was not completely an event for selecting the next governor of Tokyo. Some candidates did not intend to work as governor, but to collect money by selling an opportunity for voters to express their disappointment with the process or to earn more page views in SNS. The existing parties have begun to consider new legislation to regulate election campaigns. The biggest loser might be democracy in Japan.