Abenomics and the Slowdown of Japan's Economy

Going into the July 10 Upper House elections, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has emphasized the success of his economic plan called "Abenomics." It consists of what he called “three arrows”: 1) bold monetary relaxation; 2) flexible application of fiscal stimulus; and 3) a growth strategy to spark private investment.  It is a clever public relations meme.

Launching the Upper House elections campaign on June 22, 2016, Abe spoke to a crowd in Kumamoto, a southern city struck by earthquakes and landslides in April.  He said, "This is an election to decide whether we will forge ahead strongly with economic policies, make Japan grow, the regions proper and everyone feel the benefits -- or return to a dark and stagnant era...Japan's economic is making steady progress and producing results.”  The Prime Minister cited Japan’s increasing tax revenue and tight labour market as evidence.

Public opinion, the media and major world economic institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and OECD all question Abe's positive cast on Abenomics. According to the two recent polls conducted by the Kyodo News, over 60 percent of the Japanese public and the youth have lost confidence in the government's economic reform. In a nationwide telephone survey conducted on June 12th and 13th, “62.2 percent expressed doubt about the effectiveness of the ‘Abenomics’ policy mix, while 28.0 percent said the measures would improve the economy.” In an Internet survey result published on June 19th by the Kyodo News of 1,535 respondents from age 18-19, “62.5 percent expressed doubt about the effectiveness of the ‘Abenomics’ policy mix,” while 37.5 percent expected the measures to help improve the economy.

In May and June, the IMF, OECD, and the World Bank published reports examining the three arrows of Abenomics. They all forecast slower economic growth. The World Bank projected GDP growth at 0.7 percent in 2016 and 0.4 percent in 2017.” The IMF said that Japan would be the world's only shrinking advanced economy, projecting GDP growth of "0.5 percent in 2016 and –0.1 percent in 2017.” They note that consumption in Japan fell in “fiscal 2015, logging its second straight annual fall for the first time since comparable data began in fiscal 1994.” Price-adjusted real wages dropped for the fourth consecutive year in 2015. The average proportion of consumption spending in disposable income fell to 72.8 percent in January-March this year.

The World Bank assesses two arrows in Abenomics: monetary easing and fiscal stimulus in Global Economic Prospects: Divergences and Risks (174 pgs, June 7, 2016). It notes that negative interest rates, in contrast, “induced low inflation expectations and currency appreciation, raising concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy.” On the fiscal side, “a supplementary budget with additional stimulus measures is expected to provide some support in 2016…but the rise of consumption tax to 10 percent, a 2 percent increase will balance out some of the growth effects.”

The IMF also reaches the conclusion that increasing the consumption tax in 2017 will affect growth in Japan, in World Economic Outlook, Too Slow for Too Long (230 pgs, April 12,2016). Commenting on the “third Arrow” of structural reform, the IMF suggests “the Japanese government to implement strategies to raise productivity, which are vital for tackling medium-term risks and raising potential output.” Income policies are needed to “bolster wage-price dynamics and increase monetary policy effectiveness.” Structural reforms should focus on “boosting the supply of labour (including of women), reforming labour markets to remove duality, further deregulating product and services markets, and supporting investment through corporate governance reform.”

Besides giving similar remarks on Abenomics, the OECD also doubts the positive results that mentioned by Abe. In the OECD Economic Outlook (316 pgs, June 1, 2016). The contraction of the labour market has only “a limited impact on nominal wage growth.” At the same time, low inflation expectations signal “inefficiency of the fiscal stimulus.”

In a June 22 editorial, "Abenomics and the Upper House election," the Japan Times questioned the success of Abenomics. The recovery that marked the first year of his new administration was short-lived. The nation’s gross domestic product, “which grew 2 percent in real terms in fiscal 2013, shrank 0.9 percent in fiscal 2014 and grew a sluggish 0.8 percent in fiscal 2015.” The underlying weakness in consumer spending — “particularly since the April 2014 consumption tax hike to 8 percent — dragged down growth, as the cost of living mostly rose faster than wage hikes” — which Abe boasts have been the sharpest since the turn of the century. And the reversal of the yen’s downtrend in recent months — “with the currency hitting 103-to-the-dollar range last week for the first time since August 2014 — threatens to pare the earnings of export-led major firms that had been inflated by the weak currency.” But the writer concludes:

Neither trumpeting Abenomics as if it’s a cure-all or denouncing it as a failure will be constructive. The Upper House election should let voters hand down their judgment.

By Research Intern Ms. Nora Qiu

Monday in Washington, June 27, 2016

AFTER BREXIT: A NEW WORLD ORDER? TELECONFERENCE. 6/27, 11:00am-Noon. Sponsor: Wilson Center. The results of the June 23 UK referendum, in which British citizens voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52% to 48%, shocked the markets and political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. How long until economic and political stability returns? What kind of deal will Britain get as it forges new relationships with its European neighbors? Can the country retain its “special relationship” with the U.S.? Join BY PHONE as Wilson Center experts discuss the long-term global implications of this unprecedented vote.
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Speakers: James Hollifield, Public Policy Fellow;  Michael J. Geary, Global Fellow; Michelle Egan, Fellow; Jane Harman, Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center; Kent Hughes, Public Policy Fellow.

REFUGEES WORK: A HUMANITARIAN INVESTMENT THAT YIELDS ECONOMIC DIVIDENDS. 6/27, 12:30-2:00pm. Sponsor: Center for Global Development (CGD). Speaker: Philippe Legrain, Founder, Open Political Economy Network (OPEN), Senior Visiting Fellow, London School of Economics European Institute (LSEEI).

RESTORING NATO'S POWER AND PURPOSE. 6/27, 1:30-2:45pm. Sponsor: Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council. Speakers: Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns (Ret.), Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations, Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Former US Ambassador to NATO; General James L. Jones, Jr., USMC (Ret.), Chairman and Board Director, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Founder and President, Jones Group International, Former National Security Advisor and Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe; Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Programs and Strategy, Atlantic Council, Former Senior Director, European Affairs, National Security Council; Moderator: Dr. Evelyn Farkas, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia, US Department of Defense.

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE U.S. GOVERNMENT TO IMPROVE THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS IN ARMED CONFLICT. 6/27, 3:30-5:00pm. Sponsor: Stimson. Speakers: Tom Perriello, Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region of Africa; Victoria K. Holt, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State; Bruno Stagno Ugarte, Deputy Executive Director, Human Rights Watch; Lise Grande, Deputy Representative of the Secretary-General to the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq.

LEADERS SPEAK: NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISORS. 6/27, 5:30-7:00pm. Sponsor: National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. Speakers: Stephen J. Hadley, Principal, RiceHadleyGates LLC; Former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs; Robert “Bud” McFarlane, National Security Advisor to President Ronald Regan; Moderator: Steve Orlins, President, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.

Prime Minister of Japan’s Schedule July 13- July 19, 2015

Monday, July 13, 2015 

AM
08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya (no morning visitors)
09:10 Depart private residence
09:25 Arrive at office
10:00 Meet with Chinese Ambassador to Japan, Cheng Yonghua and Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka
10:30 End meeting with Mr. Cheng and Mr. Akitaka
11:08 Depart office
11:10 Arrive at Lower House 1st Diet Members’ Meeting Hall, receive dental treatment at dentist’s office
11:28 Depart Lower House
11:30 Arrive at office
11:39 Meet with President of Lions Club International Association, Yamada Mihiro and former Minister of Transport, Fujii Takao

PM
00:03 End meeting with Mr. Yamada and Mr. Fujii
00:48 Depart office
00:55 Arrive at Hotel Okura in Toranomon, Tokyo. Attend and deliver address at 30th National Meeting of the Japan Private Kindergarten PTA Association in banquet hall Heian
01:23 Depart hotel
01:26 Arrive at office
03:05 Meet with Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary, Takamizawa Nobushige
03:29 End meeting with Mr. Takamizawa
03:30 Meet with Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Eto Seiichi

04:11 End meeting with Mr. Eto
04:57 Depart office
04:58 Arrive at National Diet
05:00 Head towards LDP’s President’s Office
05:01 LDP’s Officers Meeting
05:14 Meeting ends
05:15 Meet with LDP members: Vice-President, Komura Masahiko, Secretary-General, Tanigaki Sadakazu and Executive Acting Secretary-General, Hosoda Hiroyuki and Chairman of LDP Election Strategy, Motegi Toshimitsu.
05:43 Depart room
05:45 Depart National Diet
05:46 Arrive at office
06:07 Depart office
07:21 Arrive at Federation of Economic Organizations in Otemachi, Tokyo. Attend, deliver address and take commemorative photos at The Sixth Asian Business Summit Reception  
07:44 Depart reception
07:57 Arrive at Japanese restaurant, ‘Kouetsu’ in Akasaka, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with former Lower House Speaker, Ibuki Bunmei. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga Yoshihide and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kato Katsunobu also attend
08:40 Depart from restaurant
08:45 Arrive at LDP headquarters, appear on LDP internet program Café Sta
09:22 Depart headquarters
09:41 Arrive at private residence

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

AM
07:51 Depart from private residence
08:02 Arrive at office
08:13 The eighth meeting of the Headquarters for Promoting Decentralization Reform  

08:18 Meeting ends
08:23 Cabinet meeting starts
08:35 Cabinet meeting ends
08:36 Meet with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Aso Taro
09:20 End meeting with Mr. Aso
09:52 Meet Chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce, Mr. Suryo Bambang Sulisto and Indonesian Ambassador to Japan, Yusron Ihza Mahendra
10:24 End meeting with Mr. Suryo and Yusron
10:53 Meet with Secretary-General of Headquarters for Abduction Issue, Ishikawa Shoichiro
11:20 End meeting with Mr. Ishikawa
11:21 Meet with Director of National Security Council, Yachi Shotaro and Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka
11:48 End meeting with Mr. Yachi and Mr. Saiki

PM
02:35 Director of National Security Council, Mr. Yachi, Director of Cabinet Intelligence, Mr. Kitamura, Head of LDP Yamanashi Chapter, Shimizu Takenori and Director of Cabinet Satellite Intelligence, Shimohira Koji enters
02:48 Mr. Yachi and Mr. Shimohira leave
03:09 Mr. Kimura leaves
03:19 Meet with Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka
03:48 End meeting with Mr. Saiki
04:20 Meet with Special Advisor to President of LDP, Hagiuda Koichi
04:46 End meeting with Mr. Hagiuda
05:00 Meet with Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Amari Akira and Cabinet Office members: Vice-Minister, Matsuyama Kenji, Director-Generals for Policies on Cohesive Society, Maekawa Mamoru, Habuka Shigeki and Tawa Hiroshi
05:26 End meeting with Mr. Amari, Mr. Matsuyama, Mr. Maekawa, Mr. Habuka and Mr. Tawa
05:32 Courtesy Call from the Consortium for the Promotion of the Modern Industrial Heritage in Kyushu and Yamaguchi to Inscription on the World Heritage
05:44 Courtesy call ends
05:45 Meet with Chairperson of LDP Policy Research Council, Inada Tomomi
06:18 End meeting with Ms. Inada Tomomi
06:24 Depart office
06:47 Arrive at private residence

Wednesday, July 15, 2015
AM
07:30 Depart private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo
07:41 Arrive at office
07:45 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kato Katsunobu
08:11 End meeting with Mr. Kato
08:53 Depart office
08:54 Arrive at National Diet
08:56 Head towards Lower House Committee Room No. 1
09:00 Meeting of the Special Committee of the House of Representatives on the Legislation for Peace and Security of Japan and the International Community

PM
00:10 Leave seat during proceedings
00:12 Depart National Diet
00:13 Arrive at office
00:18 Meet with Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga Yoshihide
00:26 End meeting with Mr. Suga
06:37 Interview to all media: when asked ‘Has the Security bills been approved by the Lower House Members of the Diet?’ Mr. Abe answers, ‘I would like to proceed in explaining this to our citizens including the discussion in the National Diet in an easy-to-understand manner.’
06:38 Depart office
06:44 Arrive at soba restaurant, ’Sampei’ in Akasaka, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with Yomiuri Newspaper group board member and Top Advisor, Oikawa Shouichi, and an artist of Western painting, Kinutani Kouji
08:36 Depart restaurant
08:56 Arrive at private residence

Thursday, July 16, 2015

AM
08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya ( no morning visitors)
09:28 Depart private residence
09:47 Arrive at office
10:40 Courtesy Call from the Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan
10:53 Courtesy call ends

10:57 Meet with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Aso Taro, Ministry of Finance members, Vice-Minister, Tanaka Kazuho, Deputy Vice-Minister, Fukuda Junichi and Director-General of Tax Bureau, Sato Shinichi
11:34 Mr. Tanaka, Mr. Fukuda and Mr. Sato leave
11:41 Mr. Aso leaves
11:45 Filming video message for industrial group 

11:51 Finish filming

PM
00:47 Depart office
00:49 Arrive at National Diet
00:50 Head towards Lower House Waiting Room No. 14
00:51 Meeting of LDP Diet Members

00:57 Meeting ends

00:58 Depart room
00:59 Head towards Lower House Plenary Meeting Hall
01:02 Lower House Plenary Session opens
02:06 Meeting adjourns
02:07 Depart the hall
02:09 Depart National Diet
02:11 Arrive at office
02:12 Interview open to all media: when asked ‘the security bills that have been approved by the lower house of the Diet,’ Mr Abe answers, ‘for our national citizens to have a greater understanding, our whole party will be mobilized and will continue to work hard’.
02:14 Interview ends
02:30 Meeting with Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Eto Seiichi
03:41 End meeting with Mr. Eto
03:45 Meet with Administrative Vice-Minister of Defense, Mr. Nishi Masanori and Ministry of Defense, Director-General of Bureau of Local Cooperation, Nakajima Akihiko
03:56 End meeting with Mr. Nishi and Mr. Nakajima
04:19 Meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy
05:13 Meeting ends

05:14 Meet with Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, Takaichi Sanae
05:27 End meeting with Mr. Takaichi
06:46 Depart office
06:55 Arrive at Japanese restaurant, ‘Tsuyama’ in Akasaka, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with former Prime Minister, Mori Yoshiro, LDP’s Executive Acting Secretary-General, Hosoda Hiroyuki and Secretary-General for LDP in Upper House, Date Chuichi.
08:41 Depart restaurant
09:13 Arrive at private residence

Friday, July 17, 2015

AM

08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
08:42 Depart private residence
08:56 Arrive at office
09:03 Cabinet meeting starts
09:08 Cabinet meeting ends
09:14 The meeting of Global Warming Prevention Headquarters

09:22 Meeting ends
09:25 Speak with Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation, Mr. Ohta Akihiro
09:35 End speaking with Mr. Ohta
09:36 Meet with Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Amari Akira, Cabinet members, Vice-Minister, Matsuyama Kenji and Director-Generals for Policies on Cohesive Society, Habuka Shigeki and Tawa Hiroshi
09:56 End meeting with Mr. Amari, Mr. Matsuyama and Mr. Tawa
10:02 Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka enters
10:52 MOFA’s Director-General of Middle Eastern and African Affairs Bureau, Uemura Tsukasa, Director-General of International Legal Affairs Bureau, Akiba Takeo and Director-General of Intelligence and Analysis Service Oka Hiroshi join
11:18 Mr. Uemura and Mr. Oka leave
11:30 Mr. Saiki and Mr. Akiba leave

PM
00:01 Meet with LDP Secretary-General, Tanigaki Sadakazu
00:40 End meeting with Mr. Tanigaki
01:55 Formal Prime Minister, Mori Yoshiro enters
02:00 Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka, Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Shimomura Hakubun and Minister in charge of Tokyo Olympic and Paralympics, Endo Toshiaki join
03:37 All members leave
03:38 Interview open to all media: when asked ‘What kind of decision has been reached for the new National Stadium plans?’ Mr. Abe answers, “I have decided that we will cancel the current plan for the New National Stadium that is to be the venue for the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, and create a new plan from scratch.”
03:42 Interview ends
04:08 Meet with Director of Cabinet Intelligence, Kitamura Shigeru
04:35 End meeting with Mr. Kitamura
05:00 Speak with MOFA’s Director-General of Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, Ihara Junichi and Director-General of International Legal Affairs Bureau, Akiba Takeo
05:10 End speaking with Mr. Ihara and Mr. Akiba
05:30 Reception and commemorative photo with Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel. Japan-Luxembourg Summit Meeting and Other Events
05.31Pay courtesy to honor guards

05:37 Honor guards ceremony ends
05:39 Summit conference with Prime Minister Bettel
06:23 Conference ends
06:28 Joint press release
06:40 Press release ends
06:41 Depart office
06:42 Arrive at official residence. Dinner meeting hosted by Prime Minister Abe
07:55 To see off Prime Minister Bettel 

07:56 See-off ends
08:17 Meet with Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Eto Seiichi
10:01 End meeting with Mr. Eto

Saturday, July 18, 2015

AM
08:00 At official residence (no morning visitors)
Stay at private residence throughout the morning

PM
02:13 Depart official residence
02:33 Arrive at wedding venue ‘Shimomegurogajoen’ in Shimomeguro, Tokyo. Attend LDP’s Upper House member, Ejima Kiyoshi’s eldest daughter’s wedding reception banquet
05:23 Depart wedding ceremony
05:54 Arrive at private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo

Sunday, July 19, 2015

AM
10:00 At private residence (no morning visitors)
Stay at private residence throughout the morning

PM
04:13 Depart private residence
04:22 Arrive at ‘Hair Guest’ hairdressers in Shibuya, Tokyo, receive haircut
05:57 Depart from hairdressers
06:12 Arrive at private residence

Provisional translation by Kelly Ing

A New Kind of Reconciliation in East Asia?

Obama's bow at Hiroshima

Harry & Helen Gray Senior Fellow, Director of the Society, Culture & Politics Program at the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS) and APP member Dr. Lily Gardner Feldman discusses in this essay the current opportunities for reconciliation in East Asia in light of President Barack Obama's May visit to Hiroshima.


President Obama noted in an interview with the Asahi Shimbun before his visit to Hiroshima that his presence was an example of reconciliation: “I will point out that Prime Minister Abe and I coming to Hiroshima together shows the world the possibility of reconciliation—that even former adversaries can become the strongest of allies.” Six weeks earlier, in an interview with Asahi TV, Secretary of State John Kerry also referenced reconciliation to characterize Japanese-U.S. relations: “Well, no matter what people feel about [the dropping of the atomic bomb], we are now friends and allies. We have worked through a remarkable reconciliation.” The visits of Secretary of State Kerry and President Obama to Hiroshima in April and May 2016 came at the same time as Franco-German commemorations of the 100th anniversary of the battle of Verdun, providing an opportunity to reflect on reconciliation in Europe and in East Asia.

The current international salience of reconciliation has not been missed by foreign policy experts. For example, the former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs in the State Department, Ambassador Wendy Sherman, recently identified the global need for reconciliation—what she calls “political forgiveness”—as a political priority.

This essay looks at the nature of the reconciliation suggested by President Obama’s visit to Hiroshima, and how it compares to the iconic reconciliation pursued by Germany over more than seventy years. The path of Germany’s foreign policy of reconciliation (with France, Israel, Poland, and Czechoslovakia/Czech Republic) can be described in terms of timing, motives, actors, mechanisms, opposition, and consequences. The argument here is that, while there are many similarities in the elements that make up reconciliation across the two cases, U.S.-Japanese reconciliation as exemplified at Hiroshima is more of a pragmatic kind, lacking the deep moral basis of the German and European experience.

Timing

Germany’s official policy of active reconciliation started early, in the 1950s with France and Israel, whereas Obama’s visit to Hiroshima took place a long 70 years after the dropping of the atomic bomb. Nonetheless, not all issues were settled speedily in the German case, as evidenced by the agreement on World War II slave and forced labor, which occurred only in 2000. And in the Japanese case, the framework for a new relationship was outlined soon after war, in the San Francisco Treaty of September 1951.

Motives

Germany was driven by both pragmatic motives (the return of considerable sovereignty in exchange for facing the past) and a moral imperative (compensation and contrition were the right thing to do). The dual motives were also present for Germany’s victims.

Obama’s motives for going to Hiroshima were pragmatic: to augment the U.S. relationship with Japan; to help stabilize East Asian security at a time of perceived growing threats from China, both economic and military. Obama also framed the visit in moral terms, but not like the morality in the European experience. By emphasizing the universal immorality of using nuclear weapons, Obama removed U.S. agency. He referred to a “shared responsibility to look directly into the eye of history and ask what we must do differently to curb such suffering again.” German officials from Adenauer to Merkel have accepted German responsibility for World War II and the Holocaust. In the Obama visit, there was no Japanese acceptance of responsibility, and no explicit American accusation.

History and memory, often the expressions of moral composure, were general but key terms for Obama: “[T]he memory of the morning of August 6, 1945 must never fade. That memory allows us to fight complacency. It fuels our moral imagination. It allows us to change.” Yet, specifics were lacking.

There is a danger in this treatment of history that it will become a footnote in Japanese-U.S. relations rather than a touchstone for constant dialogue. Obama’s view of history fits with Prime Minister Abe’s. Abe insisted, in the recent “comfort women” agreement with South Korea, that there be no more discussion of the issue. For Germany, commemoration has taken place repeatedly at the same sites for 70 years. It is unclear with Hiroshima whether this visit by a head of state will be the first and only such visit, or the beginning of symbolic gestures by heads of state and government and cabinet members at sites where the war in the Pacific can be remembered with regularity. In the European context, these visits often have been additionally powerful when the German representative has been accompanied by a representative of the other country. Joint visits (as with Obama and Abe in Hiroshima) both confirm and contribute to reconciliation.

Actors

In the German and European example, civil society actors were catalysts for reconciliation, beginning soon after the war and even before the Federal Republic was founded. U.S.-Japanese postwar relations similarly have been shaped by non-governmental relations in many societal arenas from economics to culture, from town twinning to educational and academic exchange. The European societal activities typically have been coordinated with official initiatives. At first, in the planning for the Hiroshima visit, American POWs were led to believe an American POW would accompany the President, but in the end this amplification of the visit did not materialize.

Another aspect of the nature of actors in these bilateral relations is the distinction, and common experience, of being both victims and perpetrators. While carefully avoiding the idea of an apology or reexamination of the decision to drop the bomb, Obama’s presence and words at Hiroshima importantly validated Japan as victim, albeit not singularly but as part of a universe of victims: “We come to mourn the dead, including over 100,000 Japanese men, women, and children, thousands of Koreans, a dozen Americans held prisoner.” Yet, Americans were Japan’s victims at Pearl Harbor and thereafter, which went unrecognized in the Hiroshima visit.

Germany recognized early on its role as perpetrator of World War II and the Holocaust, but Germany and its victims have underscored in the last 25 years that Germans—those expelled from Poland and Czechoslovakia—were also victims, without suggesting a moral equivalence between Germans and other victims. Obama carefully avoided a victimhood vocabulary, but Abe said nothing to dispel the impression.

Mechanisms

In addition to symbolic gestures and civil society initiatives mentioned above, in a variety of policy arenas bilateral institutions have expressed policy preferences between the two sides in the European example. So, too, economics (constructing interdependence as an antidote to past conflict and as a bulwark against new conflicts) and defense (making war between the two impossible) have been prominent in the U.S.-Japanese case.

The key mechanism shaping European reconciliation has been the moral practice of acknowledgement of grievances, including but not limited to apologies, statements of regret, treaty language. The moral nature of acknowledgement is seen in its early and repeated use. Seventy years after World War II, Germans have no pragmatic need to acknowledge their conduct in the war and the Holocaust, but they continue to do so for reasons of moral compunction. Apology, or a variant thereof, has three basic requirements: a recognition of the suffering of the victims; the assumption of full responsibility by the perpetrator for his/her acts; an indication of the material or spiritual compensation for the loss. Only the first, a recognition of suffering, was present at Hiroshima, distinguishing morally the U.S.-Japan case as practiced at Hiroshima from Germany. Obama wanted to avoid the appearance of delivering an apology.

Opposition

European reconciliation teaches us that there is often opposition to the process, usually from domestic forces. Obama’s caution at Hiroshima was prompted by veterans’ rejection of the need for an apology. They felt it would call into question the decision to use the atomic bomb and would upend Truman’s reasoning that the bombing brought a speedy end to the war and avoided a massive loss of life. According to a 2015 Pew Research Center poll, 56 percent of Americans believed the use of the bombing was appropriate. Among those over 65, the figure for acceptance was 70 percent.

Despite Obama’s conviction that his visit to Hiroshima might advance his most profound commitment to a world without nuclear weapons, making victims but not contrition important, he inevitably has received the political criticism he anticipated. Supporters of the presumptive Republican presidential nominee called Obama “weak” and the visit unnecessary because Japan was the undisputed aggressor. For Obama’s nuclear agenda, and for his policy of making Japan the Asian leader against a rising China, this first act of reconciliation was essential. The test now is whether it will hold and be reciprocated.

Consequences

Bilateral reconciliation in Europe contributed in the postwar world to the stability of Western Europe as a whole. A new round of reconciliation after 1989 contributed to stability and solidarity in Eastern Europe, although Putin’s hyper-nationalism and nostalgia for the Soviet era have put both in question. Greater stability in East Asia could be a consequence of Obama’s trip if the President were to move vigorously on three fronts:

1. insist on a visit by Abe to Pearl Harbor (both sides need to acknowledge history). The Japanese defence minister visited in November 2015, but an equivalent to the President’s Hiroshima gesture is necessary;  
2. increase the number and intensity of civil society connections between Japan and the U.S. and include China and South Korea. There are many disparate non-governmental initiatives, but increasing, consolidating, and profiling them would provide a critical mass for a new push to reconciliation; 
3. be willing to mediate between Japan and China and between Japan and South Korea over history issues. 

Before the Hiroshima visit, the U.S. did not have the moral authority to push Japan toward regional reconciliation because of the use of the atomic bomb. Japan perceived and presented itself as victim. Now that its victimhood has been validated, both sides are liberated to look at reconciliation with fresh eyes. Such a willingness would assume that the Hiroshima visit was a demonstration of strength and courage, not the weakness the President’s critics are intent to claim.

Prime Minister of Japan’s Schedule July 6-12, 2015

Monday, July 6, 2015 

AM
08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
08:32 Depart private residence
08:48 Arrive at office. Interview to all media: when asked “thoughts on the registering of Japan’s Meiji Industrial Revolution as [UNESCO] World Heritage site,” Mr. Abe answers, “I am immensely delighted that the origin of ‘Monozukuri Japan’ being registered as a World Heritage site. I would like to express my respect including to the locals and each and every business who have strived to protect these sites.”
09:41 Meet with Ministry of Finance Generals Vice-Minister, Kagawa Shunsuke, Senior Deputy Director-General of International Bureau, Yamasaki Tatsuo, Deputy Vice-Minister, Fukuda Junichi and Director-General of International Bureau, Asakawa Masatsugu
10:11 End meeting with Mr. Kagawa, Mr. Yamasaki, Mr. Fukuda and Mr. Asakawa
11:03 Meet with Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare, Shiozaki Yasuhisa. The University of Tokyo lecturer, Shibuya Kenji also attends.
11:43 End meeting with Mr. Shiozaki and Mr. Shibuya

PM
00:01 Ruling Party Liaison Conference
00:32 Conference ends
00:33 Speak with Minister of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), Kishida Fumio
00:42 End speaking with Mr. Kishida
01:24 Meet with Ministry of Defense (DOF)’s Director-General of Bureau of Operational Policy, Miyama Nobuaki and Chief of Staff for Maritime Self-Defense, Kawano Katsutoshi
01:57 End meeting with Mr. Miyama and Mr. Kawano
03:04 Meet with Secretary-General for LDP in Upper House, Date Chuichi
03:37 End meeting with Mr. Date
04:30 Speak with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary for Crisis Management, Nishimura Yasuhiko
04:45 End speaking with Mr. Nishimura
05:01 Depart office
05:02 Arrive at National Diet
05:04 Head towards LDP’s President Office
05:05 LDP Officers Meeting
05:31 Meeting ends
05:51 Leave the room
05:52 Depart National Diet
05:54 Arrive at office
06:04 Depart office
06:14 Arrive at Palace Hotel Tokyo. Attend and deliver address at LDP Lower House member, Furuya Keiji 25th year in office celebratory party at banquet hall, Aoi.
06:31 Depart hotel
06:46 Arrive at ‘Eirin’, Chinese restaurant in Akasaka. Dinner meeting with Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Ota Akihiro and New Komeito Lower House member, Toyama Kiyohiko
08:35 Depart restaurant
08:43 Arrive at LDP’s headquarters
08:44 Head towards the President’s Reception Room
08:45 Speak with LDP Upper House member, Onuma Mizuho
08:55 End speaking with Ms. Onuma
08:56 Depart room
09:00 Appear on LDP internet program Café Sta
09:19 Program ends
09:21 Depart headquarters
09:34 Arrive at private residence

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

AM
07:35 Depart private residence at Tomigaya, Tokyo
07:46 Arrive at office
07:57 Attend Nine Minister’s Group of National Security Council meeting
08:04 Meeting ends
08:11 Central Disaster Prevention Council 
08:30 Meeting ends
08:35 Cabinet meeting
08:44 Cabinet meeting ends
09:15 Meet with Secretary-General of Headquarters for Abduction Issue, Ishikawa Shoichiro
09:30 End meeting with Mr. Ishikawa
09:59 Meet with the incoming and outgoing Commissioner of Financial Services Agency Mori Nobuchika and Hosomizu Kiyoshi
10:22 End meeting with Mr. Mori and Mr. Hosomizu
10:23 Meet with Ministry of Finance members, Vice-Minister of Finance, Tanaka Kazuho, Director-General of International Bureau, Asakawa Masatsugu, Chief Cabinet Secretary, Okamoto Shigeaki and, Director-General of Budget Bureau, Fukuda Koichi
10:27 End meeting with Mr. Tanaka, Mr. Asakawa, Mr. Okamoto and Mr. Fukuda
11:07 Depart office
11:22 Arrive at the Tokyo International Forum in Marunouchi, Tokyo. Attend and delivery address at the Opening Ceremony of the 9th UIC World Congress on High Speed Rail
11:49 Depart forum
11:57 Arrive at office

PM
01:15 Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kishida Fumio enters
01:24 Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka joins
02:37 End meeting with Mr. Kishida and Mr. Saiki
02:47 National Security Council meeting starts. Minister responsible for Ocean Policy, Yamatani Eriko attends
03:16 End meeting with Ms. Yamatani
03:29 Meeting ends
03:36 Director of Cabinet Intelligence, Kitamura Shigeru, Ministry of Defense members, Director-General of Bureau of Defense Policy, Mr. Kuroe Tetsuro and Director of Defense Intelligence Headquarters, Miyagawa Tadashi enter.
03:46 End meeting with Mr. Kuroe and Mr. Miyagawa
04:06 End meeting with Mr. Kitamura
05:20 Talk with Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh State of India, Mr. Nara Chandrababu Naidu
05:25 End talk with Mr. Nara
05:48 Depart office
05:53 Arrive at Toranomon Hospital, visit former Private Secretary in hospital
06:15 Depart hospital
06:22 Arrive at The Prince Park Tower Tokyo in Shiba Park, Tokyo. Informal talk with LDP members: Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Shimomura Hakubun, Minister of Environment, Mochizuki Yoshio and Chairman of LDP Diet Affairs Committee, Satou Tsutomu in ‘party room’ venue. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga Yoshihide also attends
07:15 Depart hotel
07:22 Arrive at hotel Andaz Tokyo. Dinner with LDP Secretary-General, Tanigaki Sadakazu, and New Komeito representative, Yamaguchi Natsuo and Secretary-General of New Komeito, Inoue Yoshihisa at restaurant Andaz Tavern
09:09 Depart hotel
09:15 Arrive at LDP headquarters, appear on LDP internet program Café Sta
09:56 Depart LDP headquarters
10:13 Arrive at private residence

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

AM
08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
08:31 Depart private residence
08:43 Arrive at office
08.53 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Seko Hiroshige
09:20 End meeting with Mr. Seko
09:56 Depart office
09:58 Arrive at National Diet
09:59 Head towards Upper House President’s Reception Room
10:06 Depart reception room and head towards Upper House Chamber. Attend Plenary Session of the House of Councillors
11:47 Leave seat during proceedings at Upper House Plenary Session
11:49 Depart National Diet
11:51 Arrive at office

PM
00:27 Meeting with mayors of municipalities. Take commemorative photo including Mayor of Niigata city, Mori Tamio and Mayor of Kawakami village in Nagano prefecture, Fujibara Tadahiko
00:29 Meeting ends
00:30 Informal talk with Mr. Mori and Mr. Fujibara. Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, Ms. Takaichi Sanae also attends
01:09 Informal talk ends
02:19 Meet with Senior Vice Minister of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Kitagawa Issei
02:39 End meeting with Mr. Kitagawa
03:00 Meet with Director of LDP's Division of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, Tomioka Tsutomu
03:17 End meeting with Mr. Tomioka
03:39 Meet with LDP Secretary-General, Tanigaki Sadakazu
04:16 End meeting with Mr. Tanigaki
05:08 Education Rebuilding Implementation Council
05:32 Meeting ends
06:29 Depart office
06:31 Arrive at official residence. Dinner meeting with members from Ruling Coalition on the Development of Security Legislation, LDP Vice-President, Komura Masahiko and Deputy Chief Representative of New Komeito, Kitagawa Kazuo. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga Yoshihide and Minister of Defense, Nakatani Gen also attend.
07:54 Depart official residence
07:58 Arrive at LDP Headquarters, appear on LDP internet program Café Sta
08:50 Depart headquarters
09:08 Arrive at private residence

Thursday, July 9, 2015

AM
08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
08:41 Depart private residence
08:56 Arrive at Hotel Okura in Toranomon, Tokyo. Attend and give lecture at Japan Summit 2015 in banquet hall Heian Room
09:52 Depart hotel
09:57 Arrive at office
10:26 Speak with Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Isozaki Yosuke
10:36 End speaking with Mr. Isozaki
10:37 Meet with Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka and Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) Director-General of Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, Ihara Junichi
11:12 End meeting with Mr. Saiki and Mr. Ihara
11:33 Inaugural address to Ambassadors to Tunisia, Hasegawa Susumu
11:37 End meeting with Mr. Hasegawa and others

PM
00:54 Depart office
00:56 Arrive at National Diet
00:57 Head towards Lower House Chamber
00:58 Speak with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Aso Taro and Special Advisor to President of LDP, Haiguda Koichi
01:00 End speaking with Mr. Aso and Mr. Haiguda
01:02 Lower House Plenary Session opens
01:05 Session adjourns, leave the Lower House Chamber
01:08 Depart National Diet
01:10 Arrive at office
01:50 Meet with JR Tokai Honorary President, Kasai Yoshiyuki and board member, Torkel Patterson
02:11 End meeting with Mr. Kasai and Mr. Patterson
02:12 Speak with LDP Lower House member, Kawai Katsuyuki
02:22 End speaking with Mr. Kawai
02:33 Courtesy Call from the President of the Senate of Mexico and His Delegation
02:56 Courtesy Call ends
04:02 Courtesy Call from the All-Japan Ryokan Proprietress Group
04:11 Courtesy Call ends
04:19 Meet with Vice-Minister of Finance, Tanaka Kazuho, financial official, Asakawa Masatsugu and Ministry of Finance’s Director-General of International Bureau, Momma Daikichi
05:06 End speaking with Mr. Tanaka, Mr. Asakawa and Mr. Momma
06:06 Depart office
06:15 Arrive at the headquarters of Yomiuri Newspaper. Attend and deliver address at CSIS Symposium: “Reflections on Global History of the 20th Century- Towards a New Vision for the 21st Century” 
06:31 Depart headquarters
06:43 Arrive at Hotel Andaz Tokyo in Toranomon, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with future generation party leader, Hiranuma Takeo and Secretary Generals including Matsuzawa Shigefumi at restaurant Andaz Tavern. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga Yoshihide also attends
08:38 Depart hotel
09:01 Arrive at private residence

Friday, July 10, 2015

AM
06:48 Depart private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo
07:01 Arrive at office
07:02 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kato Katsunobu
08:07 End meeting with Mr. Kato
08:08 Meeting of the Headquarters for Water Cycle Policy
08:17 Meeting ends
08:21 Cabinet meeting
08:28 Meeting ends
08:29 Speak with Minister in charge of Abduction Issue, Yamatani Eriko
08:30 End speaking with Ms. Yamatani
08:31 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kato Katsunobu
08:52 End meeting with Mr. Kato
08:53 Depart from office
08:54 Arrive at National Diet
08:56 Head towards Lower House Committee Room No.1
09:00 Meeting of the Special Committee of the House of Representatives on the Legislation for Peace and Security of Japan and the International Community

PM
00:05 Lower House of Representatives Recess
00:06 Depart room
00:08 Depart National Diet
00:09 Arrive at office
00:54 Depart office
00:55 Arrive at National Diet
00:57 Head towards Lower House Committee Room No.1
01:00 Meeting of the Special Committee of the House of Representatives resumes
05:02 Meetings ends
05:04 Depart room
05:06 Depart National Diet
05:07 Arrive at office
05:09 Meet with Director of National Security Council, Yachi Shotaro
05:32 End meeting with Mr. Yachi
05:33 Meet with Director of Cabinet Intelligence, Kitamura Shigeru
05:57 End meeting with Mr. Kitamura
06:16 Courtesy Call from a Delegation from the Japan-Korea and Korea-Japan Parliamentarian’s Unions
06:30 Courtesy Call ends
06:40 Depart office
06:42 Arrive at The Capitol Hotel Tokyu, dinner meeting with private secretary at ‘Origami’ restaurant in the hotel
07:42 Depart hotel
07:46 Arrive at LDP Headquarters, appear on LDP internet program Café Sta
08:22 Depart headquarters
08:39 Arrive private residence

Saturday, July 11, 2015

AM
07:07 Depart private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo
07:26 Arrive at JR Tokyo Station
07:36 Board Hayabusa No. 3, accompany by Minister of Reconstruction, Mr. Takeshita Wataru
09:10 Arrive at JR Sendai Station
09:16 Depart station
09:46 Visit to Miyagi Prefecture. Arrive at Yuriage Memorial at Natori City, Miyagi Prefecture. Reception with Natori City Mayor, Sasaki Isoo, offer flowers and silent pray
09:52 Depart from memorial
10:00 Arrive at Shimomasuda District Emergency Housing. Inspect and discuss with residents
10:11 Depart the area
10:16 Arrive and inspect food complex, ‘Roku Farm Atalata’
10:53 Depart complex

PM
00:31 Arrive at temporary shopping village, ‘Minamisanriku Sun Sun Shopping Village’ in Minamisanriku Town. Reception with Prefectural Governor, Murai Yoshihiro and Minamisanriku Town Mayor, Sato Jin
00:37 Eat lunch at seafood restaurant, ‘Hashimoto’ in shopping village
00:57 Inspect shopping village
01:08 Inspection ends
01:09 Depart shopping village
01:11 Arrive and inspect ‘JA Minamisanriku head store and Shizugawa branch store’
01:16 Depart store
01:26 Arrive and inspect Shizugawa Public Hospital Minamisanriku clinic in Shizugawa Higashi area
01:31 Depart clinic
01:33 Arrive at Minamisanriku provisional government building, exchange of opinions with doctors, NPOs and residents.
02:21 Interview open to all media: ‘Concerning the piece of legislation related to security, won’t the voting unavoidably be by the ruling party alone?’ Mr. Abe answers, ‘I think they will make a decision when the time comes to make a decision.’
02:25 Interview ends
02:26 Depart from government building
04:18 Arrive at JR Sendai station
04:35 Board Hayabusa No.24
06:05 Arrive at JR Tokyo station
06:10 Depart station
06:36 Arrive at private residence

Sunday, July 12, 2015

AM
10:00 At private residence in Tomigaya (no morning visitors)
Stay at private residence throughout the morning

PM
02:11 Depart private residence
02:27 Arrive at ‘Grand Hyatt’ Hotel in Roppongi Tokyo. Exercise at ‘Nagomi Spa and Fitness’
05:05 Depart hotel
05:27 Arrive at private residence

Provisional translation by Kelly Ing

Khmer Legacy Museum Opens June 25 in Minnesota

The Khmer Legacy® Museum will hold a series of opening events June 23-25 at its new space in St Paul, Minnesota. The Museum hopes to express 2500 years of Cambodian history and culture through video, art, and text.

The idea for the museum originated in April 2012 after the Khmer people and Khmer veterans received recognition via resolutions MN Senate File 2314 and MN House File 2629 “memorializing Congress and the President of the United States, and legislatures from others states to formally recognize the Khmer Freedom Fighters of Cambodia for supporting and defending the United States military forces during the conflict in Southeast Asian and their continued support and defense of the United States of America and all other free nations of the world.” The Resolution urged all state legislatures to also recognize the Khmer Freedom Fighters and Cambodians “for their support and defense of the United States military forces, freedom, and democracy in Southeast Asia.” The passage of these bills inspired the same group to advocate in 2014 for S. Res 462 in the U.S. Senate, which included the Hmong, Lao, and Mongtaignard people. Florida Senator Marco Rubio was the resolution's sponsor.

The International Khmer Assembly ( IKARE ) felt that the unique journey of heroes of the Khmer peoples needed to be told and preserved. It is important for the younger generation to know that there is more to Cambodia than the genocide of the killing fields so that they will understand their true cultural roots.

"Up 'til now the world only knows Cambodia as home of the Killing Fields. We want the world to know that while Cambodia had lost 41 years of leaping development, the Khmer people had 2500 years of greatness," said Kosol Sek, Chairman of the International Khmer Assembly. "We created the Khmer Legacy Museum to tell stories of the Khmer people's greatness."

The museum is a first step to enhance public understanding of the full story of the Cambodian people.

The International Khmer Assembly (IKARE) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization with a mission to protect, preserve, and promote stories and contributions of the Khmer people to the world. Khmer Legacy® is a registered mark of the International Khmer Assembly.

U.S.-Japan Network for the Future Presents on Capitol Hill

On June 9th, The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation* held its now annual public forum on Capitol Hill featuring members of its U.S.-Japan Network for the Future (The Network).

This program, initiated in 2009, introduced its fourth two-year co-hort group in April 2016. The Network identifies American, emerging Japan scholars and provides them with tools to make their work policy relevant. Five of the 14 from the last “co-hort” group (III) were selected to present publicly papers on the challenges facing Japanese society. The Japanese government's Japan Foundation Center For Global Partnership underwrites this effort. Harvard Professor Emeritus Ezra F. Vogel* was the moderator. The topics discussed were: religion in politics, immigration, the new secrecy law, work culture, and Japan’s opposition party. A bound publication included 3-page essays by all 14 members of Co-hort III (2014-2016) on a greater range of political issues in Japan.

The five presentations portrayed Japan as a “normal” industrial democracy troubled by an ageing population and uncomfortable with change. Accommodating immigrants and women into its rapidly shrinking workforce are challenges both politically and socially. Internationally, the U.S.-Japan alliance will continue to evolve with mainstream political parities preferring low-budget structural reforms and reassurances to the U.S. over active participation in regional disputes.

The central point of the each presentation is as follows:

• Conflicts between LDP and the Democratic Party can not be understood without a knowledge of each party's religious affiliation: Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – Shintoism and Komeito Party – Buddhism. 
• The Special Designated Secrets Law that passed in 2013 although initially controversial will not threaten Japan’s democracy.
• Japanese government could change the long-hours work culture by sending “change ambassadors” to companies to advocate for institutional reform.
• Japan’s political parties need to begin the discussion of immigration reform to address the growing demographic problem of low birth rates and ageing population.
• For the July 10th Upper House elections, the opposition Democratic Party could capitalize on the Abe Administration’s failing economic policies and the unpopularity of the security legislation.

“Network” Participants: List of 14
Bound Publication: New Perspectives on Japan from the U.S.-Japan Network for the Future (80 pages)

1. Japan’s Ruling Coalition Gets Religion
Levi McLaughlin, assistant professor of Religious Studies at North Caroline State University.

Conflict between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner the Komeito must be understood as a clash of religious commitments. Although a 2008 and 2010 World Values Survey by the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun suggests that only 26% of Japanese believe in any religion, two religious forces, Shintoism and Buddhism, do “play important roles in shaping policy and electioneering within the governing coalition of the LDP (Shintoism) and Komeito Party (Buddhism).” Religious parties and positions maintained by LDP politicians and the Soka Gakkai campaigners ensured electoral success for Komeito.
Paper: Japan’s Ruling Coalition Gets Religion

2. Japan’s Specially Designated Secrets Law and 21st Century Security
Emer O’Dwyer, associate professor of Japanese History at Oberlin College.

Japan’s Specially Designated Secrets Protection Law (SDS), passed by the Diet on December 6, 2013 (and coming into force December 10, 2014) provoked massive demonstrations that clogged the streets surrounding the Diet Building. These demonstrations have since died down. The law allows government agencies broad powers to designate secret information regarding defense, diplomacy, terrorism counter-measures, and espionage. In addition, government entitites are allowed to conduct background checks and seek prosecution for criminal use of state secrets. O’Dwyer concludes that the law is reasonable and that “democracy is safe in Japan” because the law is a natural response to strengthening the U.S.-Japan military alliance and to potential security threats from China.
Paper: SPECTRE in Japan

3. Changing Japan’s Long Working Hours: “Cool Japan” Meets Keidanren
Liv Coleman, associate professor of political science at the University of Tampa.

The Abe Administration has tried, with little success, “a mixture of soft regulation, financial incentives, and moral suasion” to reduce working hours and to promote family-friendly work places. Sixty percent of Japanese women quit their jobs by the time they have their first child. Work cultures have not changed due to “too much work, face to face meetings, and unawareness of directors on this problem.” Coleman encourages the government to introduce “‘change ambassadors’ to coach managers into a new way of thinking and asking questions about work productivity while taking a profoundly personal approach.” Institutional reforms needs to accompany individualistic guidance for altering the work culture.
Paper: Changing Japan’s Long Working Hours: “Cool Japan” Meets Keidanren
Yukatsu’ program to let civil servants leave early for second summer, Jiji 6/5/16

4. Immigration and the Upcoming Upper House Election
Michael Strausz, associate professor of political science at Texas Christian University.

Japan has the largest aging population (33%) in the OED, but an extremely limited immigration system. Japan’s Prime Minister and Diet have been reluctant to make significant changes to both the legal and cultural barriers. As the 2016 Upper House elections approach, Strausz observes that “it would be good for Japan if some political parties advocate an immigration policy.” In order to keep the work force of 87.2 million at the 1995 level, Japan “would need 33.5 million immigrants from 1995 through 2050.”
Paper: Immigration and the Upcoming Upper House Election

5. Japan’s Democratic Party and the July Upper House Election
Daniel M. Smith, assistant professor of comparative politics at Harvard University.

Prime Minster Shinzo Abe and his LDP hope to secure a large enough victory to move ahead with their goal of constitutional revision, which includes “loosening restrictions on the use of the Self-Defense Forces, a change many decry as unconstitutional.” The opposition Democratic Party has an opportunity to reverse recent electoral setbacks in the upcoming election if it manages to “simultaneously avoid competition with the remaining opposition parties in single-seat districts and convince disaffected voters to show up at the polls.” The previous success of the LDP has not been due to their policies, but rather the failure of any anti-Abe coalition, including the recently formed Democratic Party, Japan Restoration Party (later re-branded as JIP), and Tomorrow Party of Japan . If the opposition combined and focused on the weaknesses of Abe economic and security policy, the LDP could lose 156 seats in the House of Councilors (Upper House) this July.
Paper: The Challenge for Japan’s Democratic Party in 2016: Simultaneously Increase Coordination and Turnout

*APP members

Prime Minister of Japan’s Schedule June 29- July 5, 2015

Monday, June 29, 2015 

AM

08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
09:35 Depart private residence
09:53 Arrive at ANA InterContinental Hotel Tokyo. Attend ACCJ Women in Business Summit sponsored by the US Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Japan at banquet hall Prominence. Give a speech and commemorative photo session http://japan.kantei.go.jp/97_abe/actions/201506/29article2.html
10:30 Depart hotel
10:36 Arrive at office
10:38 Meet with Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs (MOFA), Saiki Akitaka and Russian Ambassador, Harada Chikahito
11:21 End meeting with Mr. Saiki and Mr. Harada
11:22 Meet with Minister in charge of Ocean Policy, Ms. Yamatani Eriko
11:46 End meeting with Ms. Yamatani
11:57 Courtesy call to pupils from Great Falls Elementary School in Virginia, US. Commemorative photo session

PM 

00:02 End meeting with pupils

00:03 Meet with LDP Secretary-General, Tanigaki Sadakazu
00:37 End meeting with Mr. Tanigaki
01:40 Meet with Minister in charge of Economic Revitalization, Mr. Amari Akira and Acting Director of Bureau of Headquarters for Japan’s Economic Revitalization, Mr. Sugawara Ikuro
01:57 End meeting with Mr. Sugawara
01:58 Meet with Mr. Amari, Vice-Minister of Cabinet Office, Matsuyama Kenji and Director-General for Policies on Cohesive Society, Maekawa Mamoru, Habuka Shigeki, Tawa Hiroshi.
02:03 End meeting with Mr. Amari, Mr. Matsuyama, Mr. Maekawa, Mr. Habuka and Mr. Tawa
02:41 Meet with Minister in charge of IT, Yamaguchi Shunichi
03:06 End meeting with Mr. Yamaguchi
03:11 Courtesy Call from the Paternity Leave Papa Project, Vice-President of Federation of Economic Organizations, Okamoto Kunie and Governor of Fukushima Prefecture, Uchibori Masao. Minister of State for Measures for Declining Birth Rate, Arimura Haruko also attend

03:24 Courtesy call ends
03:27 Depart office
03:35 Arrive at the Imperial Palace. Under the invitation of the Emperor and Empress, attend a tea party with Palau official.
04:41 Depart the Imperial Palace
04:50 Arrive at office
04:59 Depart office
05:00 Arrive at National Diet
05:01 Head towards LDP President’s office
05:03 LDP Officers Meeting 

05:14 Meeting ends
05:15 Meet with LDP Vice-President, Mr. Komura Masahiko, Chief Secretary, Mr. Tanigaki and LDP Chairmen including Nikai Toshiro
05:41 Meeting ends
05:42 Leave the room
05:44 Depart National Diet
05:46 Arrive at office
05:50 Council on National Strategic Special Zones
06:16 Meeting ends
06:28 Depart office
06:46 Arrive at ‘La Jeunesse’ French restaurant, Sarugakucho, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with friends
09:06 Depart restaurant
09:17 Arrive at private residence

Tuesday, June 30, 2015 

AM

07:36 Depart from private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo

07:51 Arrive at office
07:57 Strategic Headquarters for the Promotion of an Advanced Information and Telecommunications Network Society (IT Strategic Headquarters)
08:01 Meeting ends
08:08 Cabinet Meeting
08:21 Meeting ends
08:28 Headquarters for Ocean Policy
08:35 Meeting ends
08:36 Meet with Minister of the Environment, Mochizuki Yoshio
08:40 End meeting with Mr. Mochizuki
10:01 Meet with Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka
10:19 End meeting with Mr. Saiki
11:20 Meet with President of Astellas Pharma, Nokimuri Masafumi and Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Eto Seiichi
11:30 End meeting with Mr. Nokimuri and Mr. Eto
11:40 Meet with Ministry of Finance’s Senior Deputy Director-General of International Bureau, Yamasaki Tatsuo, Deputy Vice-Minister, Fukuda Junichi and Director-General of International Bureau, Asakawa Masatsugu

PM
00:04 End meeting with Mr. Yamasaki, Mr.Fukuda and Mr.Asakawa
00:36 Meet with LDP’s House of Councillors member, Yamashita Yuhei and his wife
00:45 End meeting with Mr and Mrs. Yamashita
01:39 Depart office
01:41 Arrive at National Diet
01:42 Head towards Lower House Chamber. Attend the Lower House Plenary Session
01:45 Speak with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Aso Taro
01:46 End speaking with Mr. Aso
01:51 Lower House Plenary session adjourns
01:52 Leave Lower House Chamber
01:53 Leave National Diet
01:55 Arrive at office
01:56 Interview open to all media: when asked ‘How are the government dealing with the JR Tokaido Shinakensen fire,’ Mr. Abe answers, ‘Through the police and fire department, they are currently conducting intelligence gathering.’
02:26 Meet with Minister and Vice Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Shimomura Hakubun and Yamanaka Shinichi
03:05 End meeting with Mr. Shimomura and Yamanaka
03:06 Meet with Chairman of LDP General Council, Nikai Toshihiro
03:43 End meeting with Mr. Nikai
03:44 Speak with Secretary-General of Headquarters for Abduction Issue, Ishikawa Shoichiro
03:56 End speaking with Mr. Ishikawa
04:05 Meeting with Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka
04:17 End meeting with Mr. Saiki
04:29 Meeting with Director of National Security Council, Yachi Shotaro, Director of Cabinet Intelligence, Kitamura Shigeru and Director of First Investigation Department of Public Security Intelligence Agency (PSIA), Tago Tsukasa
04:42 Mr. Yachi and Mr. Tago leave
04:57 Mr. Kitamura leaves
05:05 Joint Meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy and the Industrial Competitiveness Council  
05:34 Meeting ends
05:39 Extraordinary Cabinet Meeting
05:46 Meeting ends
06:04 Meet with President of University of South California, Chrysostomos L. Max Nikias. MOFA Director-General of North American Affairs Bureau, Tomita Koji also attends
06:19 End meeting with Mr. Nikias and Mr. Tomita
06:31 The Prime Minister Hosts an Iftar with the Islamic Diplomatic Corps in Japan
06:56 Meeting ends
06:57 Depart office
07:08 Arrive at Tokyo Station Hotel in Marunouchi, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with Chairman of LDP Policy Research Council, Inada Tomomi. and President of East Japan Railway Company, Tomita Tetsuro and East Japan Railway Company Advisor, Otsuka Mutsutake
09:13 Depart hotel
09:35 Arrive at private residence

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

AM
08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
08:40 Depart private residence
08:56 Arrive at office
08:57 Interview open to all media: ‘When does the Yu-katsu [meaningful evening] policy begin?’ Mr. Abe answers, ‘I would like to start with changing habits of Japan’s long working hours. I also want to effectively apply this.’
08:58 Interview ends
08:59 Meet with Minister for Foreign Affairs, Kishida Fumio and Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka
09:51 Meeting ends with Mr. Kishida and Mr. Saiki
09:53 Depart office
09:55 Arrive at National Diet
09:56 Head towards Upper House President’s Reception Room
09:57 Leave the room and head towards Upper House Chamber
09:58 Speak with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Aso Taro
10:00 End speaking with Mr. Aso
10:01 Plenary Session of the House of Councillors
10:41 Upper House Plenary Session leave seat during proceedings
10:43 Leave National Diet
10:45 Arrive at office
11:00 Meet with Director of National Security Council, Yachi Shotaro, Director of Cabinet Intelligence, Kitamura Shigeru, MOFA’s Director-General of Foreign Policy Bureau, Hiramatsu Kenji, Ministry of Defense (MOF) Director-General Bureau of Defense Policy, Kuroe Tetsuro and Chief of Staff for Joint Staff Council, Kawano Katsutoshi
11:23 End meeting with Mr. Yachi, Mr. Kitamura, Mr.Hiramatsu, Mr.Kuroe and Mr. Kawano
11:30 Awards Ceremony to Present the Prime Minister’s Commendations to Contributors to Public Safety
11:48 Ceremony ends

PM
00:03 Meet with Chief Representative of New Komeito, Yamaguchi Natsuo
01:01 End meeting with Mr. Yamaguchi
01:53 Depart office
02:14 Visit to Tokyo Child Guidance Office and Futaba Regional Childrearing Support Center. Exchange views with members of staff and observing telephone calls
02:40 Depart support center
03:00 Arrive at Futaba Regional Childrearing Support Center in Minamimotomachi, Tokyo. Exchange views with users.
03:11 Interview open to all media: ‘How is the government dealing with current and future child abuse that is worsening?’ Mr. Abe answers, ‘There are plans to compile a policy package by the end of year that aims to ensure thoroughness in our response by strengthen the system and emergency response.’
03:14 Interview ends
03:16 Depart support center
03:25 Arrive at office
03:53 Courtesy call to attendees at the European Ambassador Meeting including Japanese ambassador to the UK, Hayashi Keiichi and others
04:17 Courtesy call ends
04:29 Meet with Cabinet Advisor, Hamada Koichi
04:34 End meeting with Mr. Hamada
04:43 Depart office
05:05 Visit to the National Museum of Western Art- Part of an Initiative to Transform People’s Lifestyles (“Yu-katsu”)
05:37 Interview to all media: when asked ‘What are you anticipating from the Yu-katsu policy?’ Mr. Abe answers, ‘Though the policy has just started, to feel that life is more fulfilling. I would like everyone to enjoy themselves.’
05:38 Interview ends
05:39 Depart museum
05:47 Arrive at Tanakashoudou, restaurant in Tokyo. Dinner meeting with secretaries
07:23 Depart restaurant
07:49 Arrive at private residence 

Thursday, July 2, 2015

AM
08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
09:30 Depart private residence
09:46 Arrive at office
09:47 Interview to all media: when asked ‘Thoughts on the restoration on diplomatic ties with US and Cuba,’ Mr. Abe answers, ‘We will welcome this move. I look forward to developing prosperity and regional stability together’.
09:47 Interview ends
10:10 Meeting with MOF’s Deputy Vice-Minister, Fukuda Junichi, Director-General of Budget Bureau, Tanaka Kazuho and Director-General of the Financial Bureau, Nakahara Hiroshi
10:38 Meeting ends with Mr. Fukuda, Mr. Tanaka and Mr. Nakahara
11:42 Speak with Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Kimura Taro
11:58 End speaking with Mr. Kimura

PM

01:45 Meet with Director of Cabinet Intelligence, Kitamura Hirofumi
02:13 End meeting with Mr. Kitamura
02:14 Meet with MOF’s Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr. Saiki Akitaka, Director-General of Asian and Oceania Affairs Bureau, Ihara Junichi and Director-General of International Legal Affairs Bureau, Akiba Takeo
02:44 End meeting with Mr. Saiki, Mr. Ihara and Mr. Akiba
02:52 Courtesy Call from the President of the Bundesrat of Germany and His Delegation
03:23 Meeting ends
03:24 Speak to Minister of State for Space Policy, Yamaguchi Shunichi
03:25 End speaking with Mr. Yamaguchi
03:36 Meet with Director of National Security Council, Yachi Shotaro and MOFA’s Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka 

04:06 End meeting with Mr. Yachi and Mr. Saiki
04:07 Speak to Chairperson of National Public Safety Commission, Yamatani Eriko
04:09 End speaking with Ms. Yamatani
06:31 Depart office
06:33 Arrive at The Capitol Hotel Tokyu in Nagata-chou, Tokyo. Dinner meeting in the hotel restaurant, ‘Origami’ with LDP’s Secretary-General, Tanigaki Sadakazu and Chairman of LDP Election Strategy, Motegi Toshimitsu. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga Yoshihide also attends.
08:31 Depart from hotel
08:48 Arrive at private residence

Friday, July 3, 2015

AM
06:52 Depart private residence at Tomigaya, Tokyo
07:04 Arrive at office
07:05 Meet with  Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kato Katsunobu
08:13 End meeting with Mr. Kato
08:14 Strategic Headquarters for Space Development
08:25 Meeting ends
08:29 Attend Cabinet meeting
08:35 Cabinet meeting ends
08:36 Speak to Minister for Foreign Affairs, Kishida Fumio and Minister in charge of Abduction Issue, Yamatani Eriko
08:37 End speaking with Mr. Kishida and Ms. Yamatani
08:38 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kato Katsunobu
08:52 End meeting with Mr. Kato
08:53 Depart office
08:55 Arrive at National Diet
08:57 Head towards Lower House 1st Committee Members’ Room
09:00 Attend meeting of the Special Committee of the House of Representatives on the Legislation for Peace and Security and the International Community  

PM
00:11 Special Committee meeting recess
00:12 Leave room
00:14 Depart National Diet
00:16 Arrive at office
00:54 Depart Office
00:55 Arrive at National Diet
00:57 Head towards Lower House 1st Committee Members’ Room
01:00 Special Committee Meeting resumes
05:03 recess
05:04 Leave room
05:06 Depart National Diet
05:08 Arrive at office
05:26 Depart office
05:45 Arrive at ‘Idol’ exhibition hall at Minamiaoyama, Tokyo. Together with President of Mynamar, Thein Sein observing the Myanmar local products exhibition. Mr. Abe’s wife Akie also attends
06:12 Mr. Thein delivers Myanmar’s industry development vision. Commemorative photo session
06:14 Meeting ends
06:15 Depart exhibition hall
06:24 Arrive at office
06:26 Meet with MOFA’s Minister, Kishida Fumio, Vice-Minister, Saiki Akitaka, Administrative Vice-Minister, Sugiyama Shinsuke and Director-General of Asian and Oceania Affairs Bureau, Ihara Junichi
06:54 End meeting with Mr. Kishida, Mr. Saiki, Mr. Sugiyama and Mr. Ihara
07:00 Depart office
07:01 Arrive at official residence
07:15 Mekong-Japan Summit Meeting and Welcome Banquet Hosted by the Prime Minister
08:31 Dinner ends

Saturday, July 4, 2015

AM
08:00 At official residence (no morning visitors)
08:07 Depart official residence
08:12 Arrive at Akasaka Palace (State Guest House), Moto-Akasaka, Tokyo
08:51 Attend Mekong-Japan Summit Meeting. Reception of Prime Minister of Vietnam, Nguyen Tan Dung
09:00 Meeting ends
09:01 Commemoration photo session in Sairan-no-Ma
09:02 Photo session ends
09:15 Mekong-Japan Summit Meetings and Other Events in Hagoromo-no-Ma, Akasaka Palace
10:33 Summit meeting ends
10:40 Joint press announcement in Kacho-no-Ma
11:06 Press announcement ends
11:08 Memento presentation for Japan-Mekong regional countries youth soccer cultural exchange in Sairan-no-Ma
11:15 Presentation ends
11:16 Lunch meeting with secretaries in waiting room. Study meeting with Mekong regional countries and MOFA’s staff

PM
01:47 Study meeting ends
01:48 Summit meeting with Prime Minister of Myanmar, Thein Sein in Asahi-no-Ma
02:28 Summit meeting ends
02:30 Joint press announcement in Hagoromo-no-Ma
02:45 Press announcement ends
02:46 Japan-Myanmar joint signing ceremony of Dawei Special Economic Zone cooperation
02:49 Ceremony ends
02:50 See off Mr. Thein Sein
02:52 Finish seeing off Mr. Thein Sein
03:07 Summit meeting with Acting Prime Minister of Thailand, Prayut Chan-o-cha
03:42 Summit meeting ends
03:44 Joint press announcement in Hagoromo-no-Ma
03:55 Press announcement ends
03:57 See off Acting Prime Minister of Thailand, Mr. Prayut Chan-o-cha
03:58 Finish seeing off Mr. Prayut Chan-o-cha
04:15 Summit meeting with Prime Minister of the Cambodia, Mr. Hun Sen in Asahi-no-Ma
04:53 Summit meeting ends
04:55 Joint press announcement in Hagoromo-no-Ma
05:08 Press announcement ends
05:09 See off Mr. Hun Sen
05:10 Finish seeing off Mr. Hun Sen
05:25 Summit meeting with Prime Minister of Laos, Mr. Thongsing Thammavong in Asahi-no-Ma
05:52 Summit meeting ends
05:54 Signing ceremony and joint press announcement in Hagoromo-no-Ma
06:07 Ceremony and press announcement ends
06:08 See off Mr. Thongsing Thammavong
06:09 Finish seeing off Mr. Thongsing Thammavong
06:35 Summit meeting with Prime Minister of Vietnam, Mr. Nguyen Tan Dung in Asahi-no-Ma
07:25 Summit meeting ends 

07:27 Signing ceremony and joint press announcement in Hagoromo-no-Ma
07:51 Ceremony and press announcement ends
08:00 Dinner meeting hosted by Prime Minister of Japan, Abe Shinzo with Mr. Nguyen in Yushintei, The Annex of the State Guest House
08:53 Dinner meeting finishes.
09:15 Depart Akasaka Palace
09:32 Arrive at private residence in Tomigaya, Palace

Sunday, July 5, 2015

AM
10:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
Stay at private residence throughout the morning

PM
Stay at private residence throughout the afternoon (no afternoon visitors) 

Provisional Translation by Kelly Ing