Asia Policy Events, Tuesday February 18, 2025

Monday, February 17, 2025 is President's Day in the United States, a National Holiday. There will be demonstrations against the Tump Administration throughout the U.S.

YIZHOU, LIUQIU AND TAIWAN IN HISTORY. 2/18, 10:00-11:30am (CET) 4:00-5:30am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Institute for Security and Development Policy. Speakers: Professor Torbjörn Lodén, fmr. Professor, Chinese Language and Culture, Stockholm University; Man-houng Lin,  Research Fellow, Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica, Professor, History, National Taiwan Normal University; Evan Dawley, Associate Professor, History, Goucher College; Agust Börjesson, Acting Head, Stockholm Taiwan Center, Research Fellow, Asia Program, Institute for Security and Development Policy. 

UNPACKING THE AI ACTION SUMMIT: THE FUTURE OF AI GOVERNANCE AND THE GLOBAL DIGITAL COMPACT. 2/18, 8:30-9:45am (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Stimson Center. Speakers: Amb.Chola Milambo, Permanent Representative of Zambia to the UN and Co-Facilitator of the Global Digital Compact; Pedro Conceição, Director of the Human Development Report Office, UNDP; Linda Bonyo, Founder, Lawyer’s Hub and Co-Convenor, AI & Cybertech Governance ImPact Coalition; Allison Pytlak, Senior Fellow and Director of the Cyber Program, Stimson Center; Dr. Richard Ponzio, Senior Fellow and Director of the Global Governance, Justice & Security Program, Stimson Center and Co-Convenor, AI & Cybertech Governance ImPact Coalition. 

HOW NORTH KOREA MANAGED THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. 2/18, 9:00-10:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: National Committee on North Korea. Speaker: Yoonhee Ryder, ENT Resident, University of Michigan Researcher, Korea Health Policy Project; Martyn Williams, Senior Fellow, 38 North, Stimson Center. 

    

BOOK LAUNCH: KING DOLLAR WITH PAUL BLUSTEIN. 1/18, 9:30-10:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speaker: author Paul Blustein, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, CSIS. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/40VUSl0 

@100: INDIA’S PATH TOWARDS AN ADVANCED ECONOMY. 2/18, 11:00am-Noon (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for Global Development. Speakers: Dr. Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Executive Director, IMF, fmr. Chief Economic Advisor, India; Pravin Krishna, Chung Ju Yung Professor of International Economics, Johns Hopkins. 

THINK TANK FUNDING IN AMERICA. 2/18, Noon–1:00pm (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Speakers: Estefanía Terán Valdez, Director, On Think Tanks; Michael Hartmann, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Strategic Giving, Capital Research Center; Benoît Pelopidas, Founder, Nuclear Knowledges; Nick Cleveland-Stout, Junior Research Fellow, Quincy Institute. 

IN CONVERSATION WITH PHILIPPINE SECRETARY FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, ENRIQUE A. MANALO. 2/18, Noon–1:00pm (EST), 5:00-6:00pm (BST). HYBRID. Sponsor: Chatham House. Speaker: Enrique A. Manalo, Philippine Secretary for Foreign Affairs; Ben Bland, Director, Asia-Pacific Programme. 

PRESERVING AND ENHANCING OPEN FINANCIAL MARKETS: A CONVERSATION WITH ANDREW BAILEY. 2/18, 10:30–11:15am (CET), 4:30–5:15am (EST). HYBRID. Sponsor: Bruegel. Speakers: Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England; Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director, Bruegel. 

BOOK TALK: JAPAN RE-EMERGES. 2/18, 4:00-5:00pm (PST) 7:00-9:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. Speakers: author Ulrike Schaede, Professor of Japanese Business, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy; Brad Glosserman, Senior Advisor, Pacific Forum, Deputy Director and Visiting Professor, Center for Rule-making Strategies.  PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/419OGHl

A GLOBAL RX: HOW EVERY COUNTRY CAN HALVE PREMATURE DEATH BY 2050. 2/18, 7:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Duke University. Speaker: Dr. Gavin Yamey, Professor, Global Health, Public Policy, Duke. 

THE IREICHŌ: DAY OF REMEMBRANCE. 2/18, 6:30-7:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: National Archives Foundation. Speakers: Dr. Colleen Shogan, National Archives; Dr. Anthea Hartig, Smithsonian's National Museum of American History; Duncan Ryuken Williams, Irei Project, USC Professor; Shirley Higuchi, Heart Mountain Wyoming Foundation; Ann Burroughs, Japanese American National Museum. 

Ishiba meet Trumps

No Surprise Is the Greatest Surprise 

 By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun. The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 9, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba did not bungle his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Indeed, he returned with a renewed U.S. commitment to security in the Indo-Pacific region. Although Ishiba was not able to get Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel over the finish line, he did elicit a favorable statement from Trump encouraging possible passive Japanese investment in U.S. Steel. More importantly for Ishiba in domestic politics, the opposition parties gave his diplomacy a positive review. Still, Ishiba returned to Tokyo with a stack of homework.

The U.S.-Japan Joint Statement reaffirmed that Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, which commits U.S. to the defense of Japan, would be applied to the Senkaku Islands. The statement also confirmed the continuity of regional multilateral security frameworks through the QUAD (with Australia and India) and trilateral cooperation arrangements with the Republic of Korea and the Philippines. These arrangements were established or enhanced under former President Joe Biden.

As is now the practice in Washington, U.S. government action comes at a price. The price of the U.S. commitments to Japan is one trillion dollars, although Japan was already on course to pay most of that price. Ishiba pledged in the meeting to raise Japan’s investments in the U.S. from $800 billion to an unprecedented $1 trillion. The statement provides that the two leaders will seek to promote business opportunities and significantly increase bilateral investment and employment.

Ishiba framed Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel, which had been rejected by Biden, not as an acquisition but as an investment. “Investment to U.S. Steel produces goods contributing to the world with Japanese technology. I share a notion with the president that Japan’s investment does not cause unilateral benefit of one of us,” said Ishiba in the joint press conference. Trump did not reverse Biden’s decision, but did open the door, for now, Nippon Steel to have a non-controlling investment.

Assessments of Ishiba’s debut in bilateral diplomacy with Trump were respectable Although most people in Japan were skeptical of Ishiba’s ability to build a close personal relationship with Trump, Ishiba succeeded in avoiding any hard demands from Trump such as higher tariffs on Japanese products or greater defense spending.

“No surprise was the greatest surprise,” said one of the lawmakers in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Ken Saito. A leader of the LDP Upper House members welcomed the outcome of the summit meeting and expected a positive impact on the Upper House elections this summer. Even the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, acknowledged Ishiba’s achievements.

Ishiba’s success, if limited, was the product of at least four factors. First, Ishiba put money in front of Trump. Calculating Japan’s current investment in the U.S at 800 billion dollars, Ishiba offered up a new investment goal of one trillion dollars. Ishiba may also have proposed an investment of $2.7 billion by Nippon Steel directly in U.S. Steel on top of the $14.1 billion purchase price. At least that seemed to the story in Asahi Shimbun, which reported that the CEO of U.S. Steel had made a new proposal in a meeting with Trump on the day before the summit meeting.

Second, Ishiba took advantage of personal connections. For example, to prepare to explain Japan’s investment in the U.S., Ishiba met with his high school classmate, the chairman of Toyota Motor Co., Akio Toyoda. Ishiba also consulted with the founder of SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, who had announced a $100 billion investment in the U.S. Son is an old friend of the foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya, Ishiba’s closest political ally.

Ishiba also relied on the friendship between his former political enemy, Shinzo Abe, and Trump. Ishiba told Trump that “the very close relationship between Japan and the U.S. was built by the president and late prime minister Shinzo Abe.” Ishiba stressed that Japan would continue its firm commitment to Abe’s policy of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”

Third, seeking a religious connection with Trump as fellow Protestants, Ishiba praised Trump as “chosen by God” when Trump was shot by a sniper and firmly stood on the stage with his fist raised to the blue sky. It was obvious that Ishiba hoped to establish a personal friendship through explicit flattery.

Fourth, Ishiba carefully prepared for the summit meeting. He rehearsed the meeting with the staff from both the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, so that he could speak to Trump without a written script. He brought the same interpreter that Abe had used in his discussions with Trump. Ishiba also brought maps of the U.S. cities in which Japan has invested to explain Japan’s contribution to U.S. economy.

Whether the meeting was successful or not ultimately depends on how Ishiba is able to follow up. Opposition parties have criticized Ishiba for not raising any concern about Trump’s attacks on the sovereignty of Canada, Greenland, and Panama. Ishiba’s pledge to purchase American LNG may deviate from Japan’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

In any case, so long as the LDP is a minority party in the Diet, Ishiba’s diplomatic gains may not translate into long-term better approval ratings.

A postscript: Two days after Ishiba’s visit, Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from all countries, including Japan. Trump also plans to announce reciprocal tariffs later this week although the range of affected imports is unclear. Trump is not aiming the new tariffs at Japan in particular, but at Japan’s steel producers (and other yet unknown manufacturers) will be affected. The history of tariffs under the Trump Administration has yet to be written; it is impossible to predict under what circumstances the tariffs may go up or down. In the meantime, the tariff announcements are sure to temper the public approval gains that Ishiba has been looking for.

Asia Policy Monday Events, February 10, 2025

2025 WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL TRADE CONFERENCE. 2/10-11, 9:00am-1:00pm (EST). HYBRID. Sponsor: Washington International Trade Association. Fee

MARRIAGE EQUALITY IN JAPAN: LGBT COUPLES ON THE VERGE OF FULL(ER) EQUALITY? 2/10, 6:30-8:00pm (JST); 4:30-6:00am (EST). HYBRID. Sponsor: ICAS, Temple University Japan. Speakers: Makiko Terahara, Director, Marriage For All Japan; Robert Dujarric, Co-director, ICAS, Temple University, Japan Campus. 

THE U.S.-INDIA PARTNERSHIP UNDER TRUMP 2.0. 2/10, 3:00-6:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Observer Research Foundation America. Speakers: Lindsey Ford, former Senior Director for South Asia, National Security Council; Sameer Lalwani, Senior Expert on South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace; Walter Russell Mead, Distinguished Fellow, The Hudson Institute; Amy Hariani, Senior Advisor, U.S.-India Business Council; Richard Rossow, Senior Advisor and Chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics, Center for Strategic & International Studies; Anand Shah, Partner, The Asia Group. 

BOOK TALK: BOOK AND DAGGER: HOW SCHOLARS AND LIBRARIANS BECAME THE UNLIKELY SPIES OF WORLD WAR II. 2/10, 4:00pm–5:30pm (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speaker: author Elyse Graham, Historian, Professor, Stony Brook University. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3WOADod

Who is Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba

Shigeru ISHIBA (石破 茂)

Office of the Prime Minister


68 (February 4, 1957)
12 terms in House of Representatives [Lower House] (Tottori 1), Hereditary, LDP.

Past Positions: Minister for Regional Revitalization (Abe Cabinet). Minister of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries (Aso Cabinet), Minister of Defense (Fukuda Cabinet), Director General of
Defense Agency (Minister of State, Koizumi Cabinet), LDP Secretary General (Abe
administration), Chairperson of LDP Policy Research Council (under LDP President Sadakazu
Tanigaki).

His LDP presidential campaign slogans were: “Protecting Japan” and “Protecting the people.” In
an exclusive September 25, 2024 article for the Hudson Institute, Ishiba said that his
administration “aims to contribute to regional security by strengthening the Japan-US alliance as
an “equal nation” on par with the US-UK alliance....It is my mission to raise the Japan-US
alliance to the level of the US-UK alliance.”

Keio University (1979). Ranked first in the All-Japan Legal Studies Student League in his
second year.
Worked for Mitsui Bank (currently Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation) until 1983.
Protégé of Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka and worked for the “Shadow Shogun’s” faction until

he ran for the Diet in 1986.

In 2014, he turned down Prime Minister Abe’s offer to be Minister in charge of Security
Legislation, which irritated Abe as it suggested that he did not support Abe’s defense policies.
Ishiba’s subsequent criticism of the Prime Minister isolated him within the Abe-dominated LDP,
causing Ishiba’s faction to shrink. He was an outspoken opponent of many of Abe’s policies.

He calls himself a military otaku (obsessive person) who likes making plastic models of fighter
planes and warships and is also a “railway geek.”

In 2018 at a visit to the Kurayoshi Circular Theater Figure Museum (Kurayoshi, Tottori
Prefecture), he was asked to wear a Majin Buu [魔ま人じんブウ Majin Bū, literally Demon
Person Boo] cosplay costume. And he did, to the surprise of the museum curator who said “We
asked him to wear the costume in a semi-surprise way, but he accepted with a smile. He has a
soft side.”

Protestant, United Church of Christ. Sunday school teacher.
However, Ishiba is a member of the Jokokai, an association of 64 Diet members who are believers in the Jodo sect of Buddhism and he is recommended by the Jodo sect during elections.
Like many LDP Diet members, he is also a member of the Shinto Political League Diet Members' Conference (a nativist, animist Japanese belief). On August 24,2024, after visiting Watari Shrine in Yazu Town, Tottori Prefecture, he announced his candidacy for the LDP presidency in front of the shrine building, saying the following: "This is the land of my ancestors. When I was a child, we had summer festivals here. It was really lively. Children and the elderly were all smiling. Now there are no people here and the summer festivals are no longer held, but I want to bring back a lively Japan where everyone can live with a smile."

Well-known cat lover and whisperer. 🐈

Conservative Nationalist Parliamentary Leagues: Nippon Kaigi [Japan Conference], Shinto, Yasukuni, Unification Church connections.

>Foreign Policy adviser: Takashi Kawakami [川上高司], who advocates for the creation of an Asian version of NATO, is supported by Happy Science and was a faculty member at Happy Science University. (Happy Science is a Japanese "new religion" that is influential in the U.S. MAGA circles. It is a major funder of CPAC and client of Matt Schlapp. President Trump has spoken at their events and praised them.) Kawakami teaches at Takushoku University, a conservative stronghold. In 2022, he founded the Japan Society for Foreign Policy Studies.

Social Media
Official Site: https://www.ishiba.com/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ishibashigeru/
Twitter: https://x.com/shigeruishiba
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ishibashigeru/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ishibach

The stress of the minority party

Resolving Domestic Instability with International Diplomacy

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 3, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

Because the LDP is a minority party in Japan’s House of Representatives, Shigeru Ishiba’s administration lacks a free hand in Diet procedures. Rare phenomena, in which the opposition parties take the initiative, have now occurred in the discussion over FY 2025 budget bill. Ishiba hopes to reverse this negative trend by building close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump in a summit meeting in Washington, DC scheduled for February 7. Given recent dramatic changes in U.S. foreign policy generally, it is impossible to predict the outcome of that meeting.

In the meantime, it is likely that the Ishiba administration will revise the pending budget bill, which was originally submitted to the Diet in January. The revisions may include requests from the opposition parties. Ishiba has not ruled it out. “I do not exclude any possibility to accept proposals from a party, if it offers voting for our budget bill with condition of reviewing a part of the budget,” said Ishiba in an interview with the weekly magazine, Sunday Mainichi.

The opposition parties have some proposals that have been part of their platforms for several months. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) wants to raise threshold for imposing income tax to annual income of ¥1.78 million. The cost of this relief is estimated at 7 to 8 trillion yen. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) calls for free tuition in every high school, which would cost of 600 billion yen. On the other side, the leading opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), proposes cutting 7 trillion yen from the budget. Yet the CDPJ also seeks cuts in the gasoline tax cut, free school lunch, and better treatment for nursery workers.

Ishiba needs to consider which requests he will honor, but revisions to the budget bill will be necessary in any case. It has been over 30 years since the government has withdrawn a budget bill and resubmitted a revised one. In 1991, revisions were necessary to enable Japan to make a financial contribution to support multinational forces in the Gulf War.

In addition to forcing revisions to the budget bill, the DCPJ has kept the slush fund scandal in the news. At the behest of Chairman Jun Azumi, a leader of the CDPJ, the Committee for the Budget in the Lower House voted to require the former accounting manager of the Abe faction to appear at a hearing on the scandal. (He has refused.) Although this kind of hearing typically is set by the Committee’s unanimous approval, Azumi made a point of taking a vote for the first time in 51 years. Azumi also introduced a new system of intensive discussion on the budget in which specific questions are posed to each ministry.

These surges of the opposition power may further erode public confidence on leadership of Ishiba. It is good news for Ishiba that he has an opportunity to meet with Trump, an opportunity much longed for on Ishiba’s part.

“We will talk about how to align the national interests of both countries to bring Japan-US alliance to greater heights,” said Ishiba in the discussions of the Lower House budget committee. Ishiba hopes to reaffirm in the meeting the importance of the rule of law based on the concept of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

Ishiba also hopes that the U.S. will reaffirm its commitment to Article 5 of Japan-U.S. Security Treaty which guarantees that the U.S. will defend Japan, including Senkaku Islands. Ordinarily, the U.S. would reaffirm this commitment as a matter of course, but it is now not a certainty. A failure to do so would have ramifications across all of Asia and the Pacific, not just in Japan.

In any event, economic issues seem to be the priority in the U.S. with Trump’s imposition of new tariffs on products from Canada, China, and Mexico – although these seem to be a moving target. Trump later agreed to a 30-day pause on imposing tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Stressing Japan’s growing investment in the U.S. or the purchase of LNG gas from the U.S., Ishiba will try to stay clear of any new and onerous tariffs on Japanese goods.

The opposition parties in Japan demand that Ishiba to talk to Trump about his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization, as well as his denial of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel. Ishiba, however, is unlikely to make any progress on any of these issues. Ishiba’s highest priority at the summit will be to pave the way for a frank, personal relationship.

No ordinary Diet

The Ordinary Session of the Diet Starts

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 27, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

The 2025 ordinary session of the Diet began January 24. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivered the annual policy speech, in which he emphasized government decentralization – the transfer of power from Tokyo to local communities. Regional revitalization looks to be the highest priority in the Ishiba administration, surpassing diplomacy, the economy, and political reform. The 150-day session of the Diet, after which the Upper House election is scheduled, will be a stern test for Ishiba.

In the traditional policy speech to open an ordinary session of the Diet, the prime minister discusses the political direction of the administration for the year ahead. The nature of the speech is different from that of an opening speech in an extraordinary session. That speech deals with the temporary priority of policies. Thus, in the speech to the extraordinary session last November, Ishiba addressed three policies on his agenda -- diplomacy and security, the revitalization of Japan, and disaster prevention.

But in his January 24 speech, Ishiba focused instead on regional revitalization, devoting 30% of the speech to it. Ishiba has named his project for regional revitalization “Reiwa version of remodeling the Japanese archipelago” and its goal is to achieve a “pleasant Japan.” He had described this vision earlier in his first press conference of the year on January 6.

“Remodeling the Japanese archipelago” is a concept that originated in the Showa era, which was former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka’s campaign policy for the LDP presidential election in June 1972. Tanaka was – not coincidentally -- the political mentor of Ishiba. The novelist Taichi Sakaiya promoted “pleasant Japan” in his book Japan in the Third Time (2019), following “strong Japan” and “prosperous Japan.” Sakaiya served for Keizo Obuchi Cabinet as the Minister in charge of the Economic Planning Agency between 1998 and 2000.

Obuchi was one of “the seven secretaries” in the former Noboru Takeshita faction. Takeshita succeeded to the great political power that Tanaka built. Ishiba can be said to follow in the footsteps of the Tanaka group’s efforts to decentralize the governance of Japan. This approach is the opposite of the goal of greater centralization embraced by another political stream in the Liberal Democratic Party that included such prime ministers as Jun-ichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe.

In his policy speech, Ishiba proposed a new residential registration system in which urban residents register with a local government to create greater connections to rural communities. He will encourage young men and women in any age return to their hometowns by creating job opportunities there. Coordination among industries, public offices and educational institutes will be essential to this revitalization program.

The other policies in the speech were ones that Ishiba had already proposed or that previous administrations had pursued. As part of his economic policies, Ishiba will propose wage hikes at a higher level than increases in consumer prices and tax exemptions for small amount of personal asset management, including such financial products as NISA or iDeco. Both of these were the brainchildren of the Fumio Kishida administration.

Ishiba’s security policy reflects his concern for better treatment of personnel in the Self-Defense Forces. “We will enhance our defense system, aiming at deterring invasion to our country by possessing independent capability for deny and remove the invasion,” said Ishiba in his policy speech. Ishiba also hopes to lighten the burden on Okinawa of hosting US Forces. Ishiba plans to raise defense issues with US President Donald Trump at their summit meeting.

As to the reform of a system that enabled the slush fund scandal of some factions in the LDP, Ishiba urged all the parties in the Diet to discuss public financial support for political activities, donations from companies, and candidate expenditures – but he did not present his own proposals.

The current ordinary session will be followed by the election of the Upper House, which takes place once every three years. Upper House members have six-year terms, so half of the house will be up for reelection. There is a tacit agreement among lawmakers that the ordinary session in a year of an Upper House election will not be extended. It is likely that the session will close on June 22 and the Upper House election will be held on July 20.

Ishiba is under considerable time pressure to corral enough votes in the Lower House, through negotiation with the opposition parties, to pass the FY 2025 budget bill by March 2, which is the deadline for the bill to automatically pass the Upper House before the new fiscal year begins on April 1. The Constitution of Japan says that a budget is approved as decided by the Lower House, when the Upper House fails in taking final action within 30 days from receiving of it.

According to an agreement among parties, Ishiba also must bring the issue of political contributions by companies and organizations to a conclusion by the end of March. If he fails to do so, the opposition parties will have cause to submit a no-confidence resolution to the Lower House at the end of the session. Such a resolution can ignite a snap election of the Lower House on the same day of the Upper House election.

Asia Policy Events Monday, February 3, 2025

AI AT WORK: BUILDING AND EVALUATING TRUST. 2/3-4, HYBRID. Sponsor: Institute for Trustworthy AI in Law and Society (TRAILS). 

THE STATE OF THE NATION PROJECT: A COMPREHENSIVE DISCUSSION ON AMERICA’S SUCCESSES AND FAILURES. 2/3, 10:00-11:30am (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Douglas N. Harris, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brown Center on Education Policy, The Brookings Institution, Professor, Chair, Department of Economics, Tulane; Gary Hoover, Executive Director, Murphy Institute; Ariel Kalil, Daniel Levin, Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy; Kiron Skinner, Taube Family Chair of International Relations and Politics, Pepperdine School of Public Policy; Scott Winship, Director, Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility, AEI. 

JORDAN AND THE ANNEXATION OF THE WEST BANK. 2/3, 11:00am–Noon (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Speakers: Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Bruce Riedel, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution; Annelle Sheline, Research Fellow, Quincy Institute; Steven Simon, Senior Research Fellow, Quincy Institute. 

GEOPOLITICS OF AID: CHINESE, RUSSIAN, AND AMERICAN COVID-19 ASSISTANCE. 2/3, Noon-1:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsors: George Washington University. Speaker: Dr. Mariya Y. Omelicheva, Professor of Strategy, National Defense University. 

NEW FRONTIERS IN JAPANESE PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH. 2/3, Noon-1:00pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies, Harvard University. Speakers: Saki Kuzushima, Postdoctoral Fellow, Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University; Hirofumi Miwa, Visiting Scholar, Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University and Professor, Gakushuin University. 

THE GREENS’ DILEMMA: BUILDING TOMORROW’S CLIMATE INFRASTRUCTURE TODAY. 2/3, 1:00-2:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Environmental Law Institute. Speakers: J.B. Ruhl, David Daniels Allen Distinguished Chair in Law, Joe B. Wyatt Distinguished University Professor, Vanderbilt; James Salzman, Bren Distinguished Professor of Environmental Law, UC Santa Barbara. 

NAVIGATING BURDEN-SHARING: US ALLIES IN NORTHEAST ASIA. 2/3, 6:00-7:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Foreign Policy Research Institute. Speakers: Dr. Kuyoun Chung, Associate Professor, Political Science, Kangwon National University; Michael Mazza, Senior Director, Project 2049 Institute; William Chou, Deputy Director, Japan Chair, Hudson Institute; Connor Fiddler, Associate Deputy Director, Asia Program, FPRI. 

THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT IN JAPANESE DOCUMENTARY FILMS. 2/3, 7:00pm (JST) 5:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Rikkyo University. Speaker: Ayelet Zohar, Tel Aviv University. 

THE ART OF POWER: MY STORY AS AMERICA'S FIRST WOMAN SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE. 2/3, 7:30pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Truman Library Institute. Speaker: Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi.  PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3PGieG2

BOOK LAUNCH: HUMANITARIAN INTERNATIONALISM UNDER EMPIRE. 2/3, 7:30-8:30pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Modern Japan History Association. Speaker: author Michiko Suzuki, Project Researcher, Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/4aBCUZx

Meeting Trump Sometime

FM Iwaya with Secretary Rubio

Foreign Minister Iwaya’s Effort to Arrange a Summit Meeting

 
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 20, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

2/2/25 UPDATE: PM Ishiba will meet with President Trump on Friday, February 7, 2025.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Takeshi IWAYA  is in Washington, DC to attend the inauguration ceremony of the 47^th President of the United States, Donald Trump. Iwaya met with the foreign policy staff of the incoming Trump administration, including Marco Rubio, the new Secretary of State. Japan hopes to maintain the Biden administration’s diplomatic framework of Indo-Pacific multilateral cooperation.
 
As soon as he arrived Washington, Iwaya met with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong. Both ministers shared their belief that it is important for Japan and Australia to play a leading role in realizing a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” Iwaya also met with Indian Foreign Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (whose son heads an outpost of the Indian think tank, ORF, in Washington). Australia and India are the members of a quadrilateral security framework with Japan and the U.S., called the QUAD.
 
On his way to Washington, Iwaya stopped in three Asian countries for ministerial meetings—South Korea, the Philippines, and Palau. In the Republic of Korea, Iwaya and Korean Foreign Minister, Cho Tae-yul reconfirmed the importance of cooperation between both countries, as well as their trilateral relationship with the U.S. The meeting of the two ministers also commemorated the 60^th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea.
 
While Iwaya’s visit came at a time of great political volatility in South Korea with President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment, Iwaya observed in his press conference that Korea is working to stabilize its policymaking under the constitution and laws.
 
In Manila, Iwaya gave the Philippine Foreign Minister Japan’s support for maritime security. The support will come through Official Security Assistance (OSA), a new Japanese government program to bolster the security of developing countries in the Pacific. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba referred to the OSA in his visit to Malaysia and Indonesia earlier in January.
 
Iwaya also had a short conversation with Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung when they sat together at the inauguration ceremony for Palau’s President Surangel S. Whipps, Jr.
 
This series of diplomatic overtures to Asia-Pacific countries before Trump takes office signals Japan’s willingness to take the lead in formulating a cooperative security framework in the Indo-Pacific region. At his meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken earlier this month in Tokyo, Iwaya made a point of promoting cooperation among like-minded countries as seen in Japan-U.S.- ROK, Japan-U.S.-Philippines, and the QUAD.
 
Although their governments hold different views on the acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, Iwaya and Blinken reaffirmed the importance of Japan-U.S. economic relations. After issuing a presidential order to block the acquisition, the Biden administration extended the deadline for Nippon Steel to abandon the takeover by June 18th. “The United States-Japan alliance is deeper and stronger than any single, one economic transaction or business transaction,” said the departing U.S. Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel.

Having shored up diplomatic relationships with Japan’s key partners in the Indo-Pacific, Iwaya arrived in the U.S. with the mission to fix the date of a meeting between Ishiba and Trump. Although Ishiba tried to arrange a meeting with the President-elect as soon as Trump won the presidency in November, Trump did not grant the request. Indeed, Trump compounded the snub by meeting earlier with the wife of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Ishiba rival, Akie Abe, and the leader of the communication business Softbank, Masayoshi Son (Son and Iwaya have been close friends since they were high school students).
 
According to Nikkei, the government of Japan has been negotiating with the Trump team for a summit meeting in early February. The leaders are expected to discuss the security and economic issues between the two countries. Several media outlets predict that Trump will raise harder requests than the Biden administration did, including demands that Japan bear greater financial responsibility for its security costs and that it enter into a trade deal preferable to the U.S.
 
The Ishiba administration does not seem to have a deliberate strategy to deal with the “unpredictable” Trump 2.0. If Trump seeks to deal directly with Chinese leader Xi Jinping or North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Japan will have to revise its long-held view that in facing China or North Korea it will be backed by the U.S. and other allies. Japan is trying to improve bilateral relations with China, but there is no predictable future.

Monday Asia Events January 13, 2025

A CONVERSATION WITH SECRETARY OF THE AIR FORCE FRANK KENDALL ON THE DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE IN 2050. 1/13, 9:30-10:15am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speaker: Hon. Frank Kendall, Secretary, US Air Force. 

WILL TRUMP ACTUALLY DEPORT MILLIONS? 1/13, 11:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Foreign Policy. Speaker: Edward Alden, Columnist, Foreign Policy.

US-CHINA CLIMATE RELATIONS: INNOVATION, COMPETITION, AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS. 1/13, 11:30am-12:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Jeffrey Ball, Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative; R. David Edelman, Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center; Samantha Gross, Fellow, Cross-Brookings Initiative on Energy and Climate, The Brookings Institution. 

VULTURE CAPITALISM. 1/13, 6:30-8:00pm (BST), 1:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: London School of Economics (LSE). Speakers: author Grace Blakeley (@graceblakeley) author, journalist, and political commentator; Michael Vaughan, Leverhulme Early Career Fellow at the International Inequalities Institute, LSE; David Madden (@davidjmadden), Associate Professor in Sociology at LSE and Co-Director of the Cities Programme. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/4fRFxY2

INNOVATION AND IDENTITY: LEADERSHIP IN A TIME OF TRANSFORMATION: 20TH ANNIVERSARY OF KOREAN AMERICAN DAY. 1/13, 5:30-7:30PM (EST). IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Korea Economic Institute. Speakers: Eun Yang, News4 Anchor, NBC4 Washington; Dave Gibbons, Founder and CEO, X Global Network of 3culture leaders; Jane Hyun, Global Leadership Strategist and CEO, Hyun and Associates. 

The Year of Snakes

Ishiba Embarks on a Year of Difficulty

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 6, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

Having completed negotiations with the opposition parties over political and tax reform at the end of last year, Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet now faces new and serious tests in 2025. The first one will be passage of the annual budget bill, which must occur by the end of March. Failure to meet this deadline or mishandling of procedure in the Diet may affect the Upper House elections, which are going to be set for July 20. Whether the Ishiba Cabinet will survive long enough to celebrate its one-year-old birthday on October 1 is anyone’s guess.
 
Ishiba took a longer new-year recess than previous prime ministers have. The prime minister typically would begin a new year on January 4 by visiting the Ise Jungu Shrine and holding a press conference. Ishiba announced last month that he would visit Ise on January 6 and hold his first press conference that afternoon.
 
In the press conference on January 6, Ishiba said he hoped to build a “pleasant Japan.” According to his historiography, the government of Japan has built a “strong Japan,” and business sector has created a “prosperous Japan.” He proposed a new Japan where the people can live their lives with the hope of a better tomorrow. Quoting the policy of his political mentor, Kakuei Tanaka, he named his initiative the “Reiwa version of remodeling the Japanese archipelago.”
 
In 2025, Ishiba will focus on achieving a growth-oriented economy led by wage hikes and investments. He hopes to establish a sustainable social security system that will be available to every generation. To strengthen national responses to natural disasters, the Ishiba administration is promoting a new Disaster Prevention Agency, hopefully to be in operation in FY 2026.
 
North Korea launched a missile in the morning of the day. Ishiba recognizes that security in the Northeast Asia is not unrelated to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine. He regards the current situation as the most difficult in the post-war era. While the day for a meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has not been fixed, Ishiba said that he would ask the U.S. President how the acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel would affect U.S. security.
 
Implementation of Ishiba’s 2025 agenda is a function of the budget. The leading coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito does not have a simple majority in the House of Representatives to pass the budget bill. Following the loss of that simple majority in the general election of the Lower House last October, Ishiba tried to gain the support of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP).
 
The DPP, however, refused to guarantee support for the FY 2025 budget. This was in response to the LDP’s failure to support DPP’s proposal to raise the income tax threshold to 1.78 million yen of a household’s annual income.
 
Fortunately for Ishiba, the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) has offered a helping hand. Its co-leader, Seiji Maehara, has indicated that Ishin might vote yes on the FY 2025 budget – provided that the LDP-Komeito embraces Ishin’s policy of free education. The LDP and Komeito have launched a discussion with Ishin on free education, as they had with the DPP on tax reform.
 
Since he is not optimistic that he can assemble a majority to back the budget bill, Ishiba has not ruled out a grand coalition that would invite the opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), to his cabinet. In a radio broadcast on January 1, Ishiba raised the possibility of a grand coalition. “It is possible as one of the options we have,” Ishiba said about including members of opposition parties.
 
To Ishiba’s regret, the leaders of the main opposition parties have so far resisted the idea of a grand coalition. The head of the CDPJ, Yoshihiko Noda, observed that a grand coalition would be an option only in an extreme emergency such as a great earthquake or a pandemic. The leaders of DPP and Ishin also emphasized that they would position themselves as opposition parties in their continuing policy talks with the LDP and Komeito. Ishiba had to tone his words down in his new year press conference that he would not go for the grand coalition immediately.
 
One of the options for a prime minister in a time of political difficulty is to call a snap election. Ishiba mentioned the idea of dissolving the House of Representatives last month. “It is reasonable for a prime minister to ask the voters a decision when a budget bill or other important bills are refused in the Diet,” Ishiba said in late December.
 
“Important bills” apparently include a no-confidence resolution against the prime minister. “If the House of Representatives passes a non-confidence resolution, or rejects a confidence resolution, the Cabinet shall resign en masse, unless the House of Representatives is dissolved within ten days,” according to Article 69 of the Constitution of Japan.
 
Competing language in Article 7 recognizes that the Emperor may act in matters of state and that, if he proposes to do so, the Cabinet must give its advice and approval. Possible actions for the Emperor include dissolution of the House of Representatives. Ishiba has not been in favor of a dissolution based on Article 7, recognizing it as an arbitrary action. However, Ishiba has indicated that he might invoke Article 7 in a deadlock over the budget bill.
 
Ishiba’s reference to a snap election has been interpreted as a willingness to hold a double election of the two Houses. The election of the Upper House is already scheduled for July 20. Ishiba could call for the Lower House election on the same day. He has, however, dismissed that possibility. If Ishiba were to go forward unilaterally on the double election, it is likely that, given continuing low approval ratings for Ishiba, members in the LDP would begin to take action to replace him.
 
Even if the July 20 election is for the Upper House alone, the election will be a serious test for Ishiba. If Ishiba cannot garner support for the annual budget bill or if he fails to resolve the debate over the prohibition of political donations by companies or organizations, the approval ratings for the Cabinet will inevitably decline. This will directly affect the results of the Upper House election.
 
If the leading coalition loses seats and its simple majority in the Upper House – as has already occurred in the Lower House – the Ishiba Cabinet will find itself in serious trouble. Ishiba may face a choice between forming a new coalition with other parties or stepping down. Without a majority in either house, Ishiba will have an extremely challenging task in working with the opposition parties on any matter of policy. For the opposition parties then, it will be critical to unite to defeat the LDP in the Upper House election.
 
This August will mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. The prime minister of Japan will issue a statement commemorating the anniversary. The historic 50th anniversary statement by Tomiichi Murayama expressed “deep remorse” and “heartfelt apology.” For the 75^th anniversary, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stripped these words from the annual statement. Nobody knows so far who will issue the statement this year or what will be its intent.

2024: The Making of an Epoch in Japan

An opposition emerges

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
December 16, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point
 
The year 2024 will be remembered as a time of major transition in Japanese politics. An epoch-making event was the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) loss of its majority in the House of Representatives, which resulted in a hung parliament. It is likely that politics in Japan has entered an era in which the LDP can no longer enjoy unilateral dominance, and no policy decision can be made without the support of other parties.
 
Since December 2012, when it retook leadership of the Diet from the Democratic Party of Japan, the LDP has maintained its leadership with the help of a coalition partner, Komeito. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expanded the political base of the LDP by focusing on the growth-oriented economic policy known as Abenomics. Abe also introduced the tactic of early snap elections before opposition parties are ready for them.
 
After Abe stepped down in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, the LDP’s decline became apparent. Abenomics proved unable to raise the real wages of workers. Revelations about the Abe faction’s unlawful management of political funds led to a miserable defeat in the general election of the Lower House in October 2024. The assassination of Abe in 2022 and political confusion afterward marked the end of LDP-dominant politics.
 
Kishida tried to leave Abe-politics behind. He relied on his liberal principles and his Kochi-kai faction. He failed, however, to control the conservative colleagues of Abe. Ishiba, an outspoken opponent of Abe, is promoting moderate politics and listening to voices from the opposition parties. This stance became possible from the decline of conservative power in the LDP caused by the slush fund scandal and the party losing its majority in the Lower House.
 
One event that symbolized the coming of a new political era in 2024 was the revision of a budget bill, for the first time since 1996, in the extraordinary session of the Diet in December. The budget bill, coupled with the threat of a non-confidence resolution, is recognized as the most important issue, and the leading parties and the oppositions may be sharply at odds over it. The leading party would not easily accept amendments to a budget bill once it has been submitted to the Diet.
 
In the case of this year’s supplemental budget bill, the opposition leader, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), criticized the bill for including unnecessary spending and lacking sufficient financial support for reconstruction in the Noto Peninsula following last January’s earthquake. The Ishiba Cabinet resubmitted the bill with a reduction in the total budget from 13.9 trillion yen to 12.5 trillion yen.
 
Nevertheless, the CDPJ did not vote for the revised budget bill in the Plenary Session in an effort to establish itself as the principal opposition party. Two other opposition parties, the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) joined with the LDP to pass the bill.
 
The LDP considers the DPP the opposition power most open to its appeals for legislative action. The DPP principal concern is tax policy, including expansion of the tax credit. The LDP and Komeito found support among members of the DPP to raise the threshold for imposing income tax from 1.03 million yen in annual income to 1.78 million yen beginning in FY 2026. Gaining the support of one or more opposition parties for each piece of legislation will become the new mission for the minority government of the LDP and Komeito.
 
Although the LDP managed to maintain its control of the government by replacing Fumio Kishida with Ishiba, the approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet in the polls has not risen. In the polls of major newspapers in December, the approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet was 36 percent in Asahi Shimbun, 30 percent in Mainichi Shimbun and 39 percent in Yomiuri Shimbun. These percentages represent a significant decline from October, when the Ishiba administration took power, by ten to sixteen percentage points.
 
On political reform, the LDP has yet to meet the expectations of the Japanese public.    Seventy-three percent of those polled in Asahi and 86 percent in Yomiuri disapproved of Ishiba’s handling of changes to political fundraising and expenditure. Ishiba wants to add greater transparency to the Political Funds Control Act before the end of this year, but he seems to have no viable strategy for accumulating the necessary majority of votes.
 
As to another reform topic, the future of the policy activities fund, the LDP agreed with the CDPJ on abolishing it. Although the LDP wanted to reserve some exceptions of disclosure for spending in diplomatic activities, it finally withdrew its proposal after receiving consistent resistance from the opposition parties.
 
The leading parties and the opposition also reached a deal in which they would conclude on the abolition of political contributions by companies and organizations by March 2025. This means that they could not settle the most controversial issue in political reform by the end of the year.
 
This kind of struggle over legislation will be the order of the day in the Diet for the next year. In the ordinary session of the Diet, expected to be convoked in January, the debate among the parties over the FY 2025 budget will be contentious. It is too early to say whether the Ishiba Cabinet will survive to the election of the Upper House next summer.